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Maklo

Maklo
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  • Who Is Going To Finally Stop Herbalife? [View article]
    Articles by "Matt Stewart" are just re-formulations of the same material from his hundred other past articles. As if repeating the same over and over again would make it more valid.

    Meanwhile, the irony is that the longer the shorts stick it out, the better it is for long-term holders. Keeping the share price depressed just means it costs the company a whole lot less to buy back shares with its prodigious cashflow. Meanwhile they are paying me some nice borrow costs. At the end when everything gets resolved, there will be a lot fewer shares and the share price will re-rate back to where it should be. Win-win.

    Please, please ... roll those puts forward next January - it will just mean more cash out the door when all is said and done.
    Aug 21 01:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Herbalife Kept The Game Going For So Long? [View article]
    But Whitney loves Warren almost as much as he loves Bill - don't bring Pampered Chef into this!
    Jul 27 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Pyramid Scheme? A Simple Question Of Law [View article]
    Consumer products companies record as revenue sales to their distributors and cannot track the exact ultimate retail price (e.g. Factoring in store coupons, store-level discounts, etc.)
    Mar 27 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath [View article]
    http://bloom.bg/1dYyfjm

    Some thoughts:

    - Based on the article's mention of a typical Tesla battery requiring 110 lbs of graphite for the anode and pricing at north of $10,000 per ton (http://bit.ly/1dYygDM), I worked out around $1,000-1,100 as the wholesale cost.
    - How replaceable is graphite within the anode. I've read about silicon-based anodes but can somebody comment on their technical/economic feasibility over the next 5-10 years?
    - What is the pricing assumption on graphite commodity prices over the next five to eight years as part of the overall lithium ion battery pricing? How do lithium ion manufacturers maintain stable pricing of these important inputs?
    Mar 14 06:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: We've Got Some Numbers For February [View article]
    Some Tesla bulls lean on "secret rocket sauce" theory. However, technology has never been a long-term sustainable competitive advantage in the auto industry. The last major disruptive shift in automobiles was the rise of the Japanese automakers (with their small, under-powered cars) who had 15-20 years to perfect their manufacturing techniques by the time the OPEC oil crisis rolled around and made small fuel-efficient cars en vogue.
    Mar 11 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: We've Got Some Numbers For February [View article]
    Could be. As you point out, it may be unsustainable but also would be indication that Tesla is under-pricing and leaving money on the table.
    Mar 10 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: We've Got Some Numbers For February [View article]
    China will likely surprise on the upside. I think initial sales will be very robust but could also taper off quickly once the early adopters are exhausted (as it appears to be happening in the US and select European geographies). The proposed Model E only has a fighting shot if they manufacture locally.
    Mar 10 05:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: We've Got Some Numbers For February [View article]
    Paulo, thanks for your post. I have been tracking the European numbers. I think it is conceivable that they are reserving a very large number of Model S' across to China that will all be delivered in March which is impacting their ability to deliver to Europe and the U.S. If this were the case, delivery times on non-stock vehicles should be going up in the U.S. and Europe. Do you have any data on this?

    I was actually just in Beijing and the anecdotal chatter is that demand in the capital is very high. With the concentration of wealth in China, there are a lot of potential buyers here and I talked to folks who made reservations for multiple Model S. That said, the bigger issue is whether this demand is LT sustainable once you get past the early adopters. Moreover, for the China market, there is also a question of whether the proposed Model E at $40-50k (before import taxes) can have a large enough market, because while the 0.1% have a tremendous amount of income, the next 99.9% falls off very quickly. I actually think the ultra-lux Model S is more suitable for the China market given the extreme wealth disparity.
    Mar 10 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath [View article]
    The tesla model s exhibits fewer "classic" disruptive characteristics vs. a low range lower cost plug in or pure electric. While the tesla tries to recreate the same traditional driving experience (at high cost), disruptors tend to have some major disadvantage (e.g. low range) but make up for it in other ways (e.g. lower TCO). The last major disruptive event in automobiles was probably the Japanese and their small compact cars that nobody liked until the OPEC crisis drove gas prices up. They had 20 years to develop their innovations until an external event vaulted them into the forefront. So yes I think electric vehicle technology is disruptive, but I don't think Tesla is taking the most disruptive approach thus far.
    Mar 3 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath [View article]
    Xepa - if demand is being suppressed in favor of other regions, how does one explain flat U.S. delivery times?
    Mar 3 09:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath [View article]
    Chinese demand is looking quite robust. There are a lot of very wealthy Chinese - the 0.1% - for whom the Tesla fills a significant gap. I would not be surprised if Chinese demand exceeds US demand very quickly. That said, like many things in China, it could fade quickly and be a fad. And I think Tesla is going to have major issues penetrating the next class below without investing heavily in domestic manufacturing. The drop off from the 0.1% to the 5% is fast and steep ...
    Mar 3 07:51 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    Tesla knows they have to raise significant capital to fund a number of projects not limited to expanding battery production. It is in their long-term interest to raise money as non-dilutively as possible, therefore skew towards being optimistic on the future, providing guidance with a goal of keeping the stock price as high as possible. Fortunately for Tesla there is a large investor base willing to accommodate.
    Feb 25 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Going Through The Tesla Deliveries Oddity [View article]
    Paulo's put out some good analysis based on facts. You may interpret it differently but it does strike me odd anytime someone calls for an outright censure. What are you worried about? That your friend Mr. Musk will have his feelings hurt? That the stock price goes down and Tesla needs to raise capital more dilutively than before?
    Feb 23 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    Tesla has economic motivation to be optimistic as they are embarking on a phase which will at a minimum requires significant equity investment.
    Feb 23 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Profitable $35,000 Tesla Model E Is A Pipe Dream [View article]
    Agreed per my previous comments, I think Panasonic holds some serious sway in its negotiation of economics with Tesla especially as more auto OEMs enter the electric vehicle game. The lithium ion battery supply industry is an oligopoly dominated by 3-4 firms, whereas there are at least a couple dozen (and growing) auto OEMs to sell to. This is not an issue that is going away for Tesla absent a merger with Panasonic (hey anything is possible)...
    Feb 23 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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