Ariel-UBT

VIX Overview: Guessing Where Volatility Might Plateau from the Macro Cycle Picture

The VIX put in a low a week ago testing 33.81, a .786 Fibonacci retrace (back to the late-2008 lows) I'd marked off months ago (and which it tested with an intraday spike back in January 2009, after which VIX only moved modestly higher while equities tanked into early March). If it wants lower, I've got a number at approximately 24.80 (a .786 Fib retrace back to the prior lows (the 2007 lows I think - sorry, it's been a week or so since I posted that study). I'm thinking that lower is unlikely (but will see of course). Interestingly, that 33.81 also came on the Armstrong model's interim high date, and not only closed a prior gap (from long ago) at 35, but also retested the closing high of March 2008 which was the Armstrong model's prior interim date (an interim low). I could agree VIX may go yet lower, though expecting rather a push up first (inverse of the March 2008 experience). The next Armstrong date is a low (non-interim), out in 2011 if my memory serves. The prior Armstrong non-interim high was in February 2007 - again interesting, eh? The periodicity you are seeing seems to correspond roughly with the periodicity of the Armstrong model, which makes sense when you consider that it's a model of economic confidence.

Bar Continues to Drop Dangerously on What the U.S. Will Accept as Collateral

It isn't too far-fetched to imagine that government and quasi-government entities will have additional "reasons" to try propping up equities markets - if only on the basis that massive amounts of governmental pensions would benefit from improved equity market prices. This includes many, most, or maybe all pension funds of state and local governments.
Though I have been wondering, what if the Fed really had to choose between equities markets and Treasuries. I mean, if they could only effectively prop up one or the other, which would it be? I am guessing they would opt to try protecting T-bond prices; just my guess.
Informative as always, thanks TD!

Where We Stand: A Look at the S&P 500

Stockcharts on my charts shows 1014 as the 200 dsma right now. There was a lot of resistance in the zone 806/833 based on Fibonacci clusters and price-by-time supply overhang. Today price snapped back as the 20 dema met the 50 dsma. Probably another effort to look good tomorrow, maybe an effort to close the gap & if so we'll see if it succeeds. But on my TA models, cannot get bullish unless SPX solidly above 833/838 (and the BKX proves it doesn't need another low).

Big Banks: Pulling Off the Ultimate Bait and Switch

"Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP)" sounds like they actually wanted to mimic what people used to call the "PPT" (Plunge Protection Team). Somehow I doubt it will be more effective than that was! It's all sad and pathetic really, or it would be if the collective "we" and our children didn't have to pay the tab to pay for all that mess.

Home Prices from the 70s: A Good Investment?

Hey, that chart doesn't show the prior century! And you really just posted their chart and statement, with no input or commentary of your own!

Retail Group Breaks Support

The RTH was one of the 3 "Top Bullish" at the ISE site just on Monday, 2/2 - also a clue that sentiment too hot in this sector.

When Banks and SPX Diverge, What Should the VIX Do?

The XLF was featured as one of the 3 "Top Bullish" at ISE yesterday, with 55,778 calls to 2,221 puts - that bullish sentiment may well be reflected through the data you are reporting on. There's potentially another factor, which is that the financials have fallen so far now that they literally don't have the impact on the broader indices' movements that they used to have. Finally, I do have the BKX as having hit a major Fibonacci level and potential low, but with the fundament picture so poor I agree it seems unlikely that the financials could rally while the SPX would be falling. One other point, my VIX chart shows VIX is still above trendline support (as well as its 200 dsma) so frankly I don't have VIX giving bullish signals for the general markets, unless and until VIX would break that support (guess what, it tested toward that again today but then rose as i rather expected).

A Turn in USD/JPY?

Fundamentally it makes sense, considering that with higher volatility the Nikkei as well as the US equities markets tend to weaken, and the yen and the dollar rise along with the VIX. The Neikkei chart is similar sobering, and the charts of the yen and the dollar both look poised for higher levels even on their own ... so this is an interesting corrollary signal as well.