Steve Pasq

Why Dick Bove Is Wrong About Citigroup

It is absurd to think bankers are so talented that they require the pay equivalent to a small township. Anyone so talented can start their own bank or investment company and keep all the profits of their efforts. If they need to tap the publicly traded capital markets or require FDIC insurance they are not that talented.

Whistling Past the Depression

Great article. Everyone wants the "system" to work because the alternative is hard to swallow. The stink comes when the "crucial role" of financiers is to rewrite loans and rake off outrageous fees and commissions in the process. It doesn't seem very productive to me but maybe I'm just in the wrong business.

The Future of U.S. Consumer Spending: It's a Generational Thing

How does it go..There are lies, damn lies and statistics? Sure chasing the age group with the most money is smart but it will be a group with less and less buying power relatively speaking. Maybe McDonald's will be able to sell a bowl of rice for $.12/each and make a profit but I'll bet it will be a smaller profit than the one they made on selling the Big Mac to the Baby Boomers.

Niall Ferguson: Dollar Is Doomed, U.S. Empire Over

China will become more important in world affairs over the next few decades but only by degrees. The China/Brazil alliance is still in the chump change category. Chinese workers may be sophisticated enough to build furniture and cell phones but space stations, battle ships and drones are made in the USA and by the time China figures those things out we will be on to something that obsoletes them.

Americans are also pretty good at financial innovation and I will predict that the US will refashion the dollar into the world currency that China wants to buy--into say "mega dollars" and then let the Chinese exchange their "ancient dollars" for the new currency at a 10-1 rate. Everyone's happy.

Is There Really a Global 'Cabal' Aiming to Dump the Dollar?

Those third world countries don't have to enjoy the fruits of dollar exchange. But they better not get any ideas that piss off the US because we have Drones to hunt them down and vaporize them. The US has aircraft carriers by the dozens, nuclear submarines, etc. We can just take the oil if it gets too expensive in dollars. I'm not worried chump change meetings in the backwaters of the planet.

Markets Are Starting to Roll Over

The stock markets could go down another 80% in real terms. Chartwise the SPX looks to be at the same point as the NIKK in 2002 with a similar political back drop in Washington DC. It's not hard to fathom businesses fighting over the declining share of consumer dollars over the next 10 years and ruining any remaining margins. There is too much capacity without a home so companies will fight and lose money for a while to stay in business. It could be a long slow workout.

No Chance of a 'V' Recovery

Is a depression off the table? It's seems like people are afraid to say depression because they may be ostracized from society. It looks as if most of our stimulus dollars went straight to Sinapore real estate. After that a few green guys are congradulating each other for their big budgets to save the world but that won't result in jobs or growth because their aim is to shut down industrial activity and they are good at it. The outrage will come when the insider finance boys are exposed for indebting our population with their corrupt PIPP or whatever they call it. In fact it looks as if the Goldman/Blackrock gang are playing games with the stockmarket by manipulating insolvent organizations like AIG, FRE, FNM in exchange for TARP dollars.

FDIC's Latest Gimmick

Banks need to have their earnings hit hard. Industry employees are way overpaid and if banks keep getting propped up the true costs will continue to be hidden. With the anonymous loan system that has evolved a bankers' judgment is irrelevant and they should be paid as data entry clerks.

The Dollar: A Strong Buy

The dollar is headed up because it appears that when Bernanke puts his foot to the accelerator he inflates the Singapore economy so why waste the energy.

Dent Tactical ETF Will Likely Have Trouble Gathering Assets

Dent's theory makes a lot of sense. His 1996 call for a 500% run in stocks over the next 10 years was off a little since they only went up 350%. But he has hopefully refined his forecasting tools over the past 14 years.

The holdings in his fund surprise me because it contains the XLF which I thought he would be short now since he predicts a collapse towards the end of 2009. Maybe he is a reed in the wind.

Why I'm Short So Many Financials

Very good points about the balance sheets of the major banks. The thing I am trying to comprehend is how the cash flows are affected by the deteriorating assets. Changing the mark to market rule helped banks put off the write downs and they issued lots of stock to the government and other investors. Then there were lots of layoffs and other cost cutting. With all these changes the banks have time to keep rewriting loans, raising fees and selling off foreclosures. Maybe they are technically insolvent but is their income going down faster than they can raise money??

One of the big 5 banks needs to issue more stock in order to show they can't keep up with the losses.

Is the U.S. Dollar Finished?

The dollar cannot be ignored because there is no more efficient way to make a transaction. Go long TLT to take advantage of a dollar rally.

S&P 1500 Earnings Estimate Revisions

Earnings revisions magically go up when the mark to market rules were abandoned in April.

Sure It’s Legal … But Is It Right?

How can Blankfein be allowed to go to lunch with the Treasury Secretary and the Fed Chairman and then go back to the office to tell the traders what to buy and sell. We should be tar and feathering Blankfein and his ilk after confiscating the assets just to make sure they aren't mistaken for heros.

There will always be corrupt souls taking advantage of the naive but it cannot be condoned and encouraged by our leaders. Now that things have calmed in the financial arena our leaders should line up all the villians for a show just like Madoff. Otherwise how many of us peons will decide that we are fools for paying taxes to a morally bankrupt government and spend our careers working out ways to not support America.

Why I Am Shorting Treasury 30 Year Bonds via Treasury Futures

You must be nervous with all the explaining about the obvious reasons the treasury is issuing more and more debt. I'm long because your side is pretty crowded right now. Also 4% interest is better than the negative numbers associated with equities over the past few years.

Frankly I believe stocks could be headed to new lows and long term treasuries are headed to new highs. It might seem hard to believe but look at the charts. All the reasoning and fundamental analysis doesn't change the fact that stocks are in a long-term down trend and the long bond is in a long-term up trend. And even having a liberal nut in the white house doesn't change that.