TonyP4

How to Trade the Rest of the Year - Goldman Sachs

The winners will continue at least for the end of year.

1. Mutual funds' window dressing.
2. Hedge funds will not dump their current holdings on gold, oil, and other commodities.
3. The losers like US dollar could lose more.

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

* A Nation of No Losers *

We do not let you be a loser!
Your mistakes will be rewarded handsomely.

When you bought a clunker that you should not have, we give you $4,500.
When you bought a mansion that you cannot afford, we're going to bail you out.
When you bought any inefficient appliance or anything, we'll pay you no matter how old they are.

When you lost your job, we extend your benefit.

When you do not have saving, we give you free health care.
When you have saving or a job, we take away your health care.

Teenagers, the more babies you have, the more benefits you have.
Drunk drivers, no one will prosecute you as the entire jury and even the judge are drunk.
Old ladies, your driver's license is also a license to kill.
Black kids, special pass to go to college and jobs.
Prisoners, you will get the flu shots first and free dental care.
Fatsos, do not worry as our up-coming drugs will melt all your fat while you sleep.


All athletes are rewarded with millions for taking drugs.
We voice loudly and disapprovingly on foreign athletes doing same.
It is an America invention!

When you cheated billions, you can retire in a resort-like 'prison'.
Also, the billions your wife hid is hers - no questions asked.

No other developed country lets their citizens own guns.
NRA and his puppet politicians will give you millions of funny 'reasons'.

When your company fails, we bail it out.
The executives are rewarded with bailout money for bringing down a company.

You die penniless, we give you $500.
You die with millions, we share your wealth.

The small catch.
We need you to re-elect us in 4 years.

The children cannot vote today, so let's pass our debts to them.
China does not have a voice here, so let's pass all the blames to them.

Even the entire world agree with us.
Our president is awarded the Nobel prize for doing nothing for peace, so why you need to work hard?

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

I predict gold will fluctuate in 1,000 to 1,300 range. After 2013, it will return back below 1,000.

The major argument is inflation will come in 2010 and continue for at least one year. We need to print money to pay bailouts and buy us out of this recession.

reckless money supply = inflation
inflation = high commodity prices like gold

Why Is the Market Going Up When Jobs Are Going Down?

You can cut jobs so much to improve earnings. The real recovery is from folks buying houses, cars... now you need more employed.

The market lags the economy by the usual 6 months. So, hopefully more jobs are coming.

In addition, the market was too low in Feb. and some cash on the side line moved in.

Now, the market is not cheap and without the employment improvement, it could head south before north.

4 Dividend Stocks to Hedge Against Social Security Failure

This is the common misconception to buy high-paying dividend stocks.

* return = price appreciation + dividend
If the price appreciation is good, just sell the stock and use part of the gain as income.

* For the same equation, it will not help you when the dividend is great but the stock loses all the value.

* Dividend growth normally implies stock appreciation. But, not in the current phase of a market cycle (market bottom).

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

It could, but not likely. Judging by the huge cash in the sideline. I expect we'll have several corrections between now and year-end. After that, we should be in the phase of early recovery.

Every one has his/her crystal ball. If your prediction is right or wrong, it does not mean you're a loser/winner. I agree with the author with his educated guess and that's all.

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

It could, but not likely. Judging by the huge cash in the sideline. I expect we'll have several corrections between now and year-end. After that, we should be in the phase of early recovery.

Every one has his/her crystal ball. If your prediction is right or wrong, it does not mean you're a loser/winner. I agree with the author with his educated guess and that's all.

Buy China Policy - Is Protectionism on the Rise?

There is nothing wrong for Chinese to buy Chinese products, same as Americans buy American products.

However, we should encourage free trade - i.e. buy the products better from aboard when we cannot produce them cheaper without setting up any barrier.

Oil Field Services Should Benefit When the Next Oil Shock Hits

I expect oil will stay in $70 range this year, $80 in 2010 and $100 in 2011. It is based simply on supply/demand. When it goes above $100, conservation and alternative energy make sense. Below $70, it will not make sense on exploration, conservation (your hybrid car will take longer to recover the extra cost), alternate energy...

Gas is different, as there could be plentiful in US.

Is This a Sucker Rally or New Bull Market?

Sucker's rally or not. I made some money and took some profit. The stocks shot up greater than 30% in 2 weeks: MGM, PFG, PCX, LGCY among my recent buys and still are being owned. They have some things in common: losing 50% in a year or so, high earning yield, and high value.

China: Beginning of the End or End of the Beginning?

China, the human right lover

* Contrary to popular belief, it is a fact.
30 years ago, many Chinese died of starvation, did not have a roof over their heads…
Not any more now.
Are these the basic human rights?

* Why you’re lied to.
The media wants to create controversy to sell their stuffs.
The politician wants to establish a common enemy, so you ignore more important problems that they cannot fix.
The offense companies have more reason to expand.
They all assume you are stupid and cannot analyze.

* Why US is human right violator.
How many we killed and how many Chinese killed abroad last year?
How many innocent people we have to kill in Iraq before we stop?
How many national guards are sent to the killing field against their will??
Should we destroy another country accusing them to have ‘mass destruction weapons’?
Why it is OK for us to own nuclear weapons that can destroy the entire world with a push of a button?
How many citizens die of obesity as we encourage “good” food?
How many poor remain to be poor for generations due to our generous welfare system?
How many our children are killed every year due to our lack of gun control law?
Gun control is not even an issue for both political parties.
How many teenage mothers we encourage starting from the top politicians?
How many Indians stay in their reservation forever and got drunk by not providing them with jobs?
How we use up the world’s oil and blame China who uses less than ¼ of ours per capita?
In addition, a good portion of China’s oil is used to manufacture our stuffs that we do not really need.
How we blame China for military expenditure while ours is 10 times theirs?
How we encourage our citizens to spend on credit and buy houses we cannot afford until the entire financial system collapses?
When special interest groups donate millions to politicians, how can they make unbiased decisions for us?

The list is endless.

China has its own problems and we have our own. Let each work on her problems and we’ll have a better world. Your yardstick is good for your country but not mine, and China’s yardstick is comparing China 30 years ago.

Geithner Is Wrong about China's 'Currency Manipulation'

It is partly true that Chinese manipulate the currency. However, it has no effect on American export to China. As American culture (or all others too), it is easy to blame others than ourselves: it is nothing wrong with my government and our citizens (both are big spenders and fight the wars we cannot afford), but the ‘evil’ Chinese.

- Chinese currency and I think Hong Kong too were basically pegged with US’s, so it would not affect import/export with currency fluctuations. Now, it is pegged mainly with US and EU.

- Most countries would like to increase the value of its own currency. If you borrow from me with my country’s currency and it increases its value by 10%, you need to pay me 10% more with your own currency.

For the same scenario, I can buy your country’s assets (like land, factories…) 10% cheaper.

- The drawback. It discourages import from US to China in theory if Chinese currency is adjusted to the market - explain later.

It is not true as US and China are perfect trade partners. The majority of Chinese goods are of cheap, low-cost consumer products and US goods are of high-tech and wheat… In a sentence, they do not compete with each other.

China keeps the currency close to US, so it has to eat their profits by reducing jobs loss. The US consumers benefit by low cost consumer goods. If you argue the jobs also go to China. With the US high salary, it would go to other developing countries if not go to China. So, it is a win-win situation for US.

- “to adjust to the market”. One way is go back to the gold standard that waw removed by US. Basically your currency value is adjusted by the gold reserve in your central bank.

It is over-simplified for discussion.