TonyP4's  Instablog

As of 5/29/2011,

* Rising.
- eBook.
- video games.

* Long-term rising.
- energy
- commodities
- health care.
- agriculture
- water


* Falling.
- traditional publisher
- newspaper
- commercial REIT (could be good value)


However, if a correction of 5-20% is coming, the best investments are contraETFs, shorting stocks and cash. Market timing is an art more than a science. We bet the above with our best educated guess which should work most of the time, but NOT all of the time.

(c) TonyP4 2011

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Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

Many posts and at least one from other:

Summary. It is hard to find one unless you buy penny stocks (most of them fail) and then hold them for 5 or more years.

#
I have my share of making over 100% in a stock. Most are not by design. I just wait to the next yearly peak (about 3 every year), being acquired by another company, waiting to satisfy time requirement for long-term capital gain in taxable accounts...

#
I have spent a lot of time in looking for Mr. TenBagger. It is not for me. I avoid stocks less than $2 and low volume. I may have many TenBaggers, but I sell them before they reach over 100% and it is easier to make money using the gain to buy stocks for the next 100% gain.

In addition, it is very hard to track performance. To illustrate,

A penny stock goes to two pennies. 100% gain.
A penny stock goes to 0. 100% loss.

Your test portfolio of these two stocks have no gain and no loss. However, for your testing you have 100% gain. Why? The penny stock that goes to 0 is not in your portfolio as your database takes it away as it is not a valid company.

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The search to get TenBagger.
- must be less than $2 and low volume.
- increasing growth, value for last 3 years.


# Poortorich writes:

Finding 10 baggers is hard. If someone says they can find one with regularity they are not being truthful. More likely, they were lucky. Did i mention i missed out on a 30 bagger? It still makes me sigh. Finding 2-3 baggers in 5 years is quite common.

#
poortorich, It is pure luck to find a 10 baggers. As in my previous posts, they belong to a set of stocks with common parameters and high risk.

Buffett has many of them like KO and American Express which he holds for ever. However, they're about 20% annualized gain only. So is Peter Lynch. They're great return, but not if we include the losers for a typical retail investor.

I missed many TenBaggers, but I never feel sorry.

# graham and Dodd Investor writes:

Getting a ten bagger is basically a matter of holding period.

"Ten times in ten years" requires an average annual gain of 26%, achievable, but with difficulty.

Ten times in TWENTY years requires an average annual gain of 12%-13%, just above the market return.

Ten times in THIRTY years requires an average annual gain of about 8%.

Warren Buffett was hoping for a ten-bagger in Coke in 20 years. He got it in ten. But look what happened to his Coke in the "second" ten years.




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Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

First we need to define a correction: it is a temporary dip but not recession double dips that will drag on longer.

1. Accumulate cash. I just halt buying any stock and selling stocks for several weeks as of 5/19/2011.

2. Prepare the buy list. It is based on
a. The good (from my analysis) stocks that perform reasonably well
b. The stocks that have performed very well.
c. More controversial her: some stocks could become value when it plunges a lot; be careful a bad stock could go to 0 (esp. with unresolable problems and from emerging countries)
also
d. Buy contraETFs - place 3% less than the market prices.
e. Buy covered calls for stocks equal to 300 or less to cut down commission.

My logic is that if they performed well and plunge in prices due to correction, they will climb back. One's opinion.

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I also check the % they lose due to the correction. The more they lose, the better buy. Again, one's opinion.

I've been right many times but was wrong last time anticipating a correction. Market timing is not a science and market is not always rational. I've more rights than wrong. The last anticipated correction had not been materialized. I missed some gains, but it is better to be safe.

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Disclaimer: All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.