john boy

Peak Oil: A Reality or a Lie?

jerry
in a perfect world we could maybe cunt on all the usual suspect to make up for our oil deficiency that is just around the corner. the only flaw in your plan is that there is limited amount of capital that will be available. We are going to have more big increases in demand then severe recessions after that because of the high cost of all commodities not just oil. so there wont be enough financing to bring this stuff on board. The only thing i see that can help alleviate the strain is the use of natural gas until we slowly buil up the use of the other vehicles and that may limit the spikes in energy and limit the periods between economic crashes. And lets not forget mr infalation that will limit the ammount of borrowing to fund all these alternatives.

On Aug 27 01:04 PM jerrydd wrote:

>
> Puru is correct, the numbers don't lie but the IEA really does. Facts
> are we are finding 1bbl for every 4 we use in the world. We have
> been living off old oil fields that are falling fast with no where
> near enough to replace them.
>
> Unless the oil sands can make enough energy to run themselves instead
> of burning so much NG they will be just a small part.
>
> Facts are except for the next few months when oil should drop some,
> as soon as the worlds, US economy recovers, well be right back to
> July08 with $150/bbl oil and higher until it drives us back into
> recession.
>
> Oil will go up about $1/gal/yr until we get off imported oil. But
> in about 10 yrs oil will drop as enough other alt energy comes online.
>
>
> The solutions are EV's, PHEV's, NG for semi's, trains, F-T fuels
> from yard, forest, crop, garbage biomass wastes and probably coal,
> NG too. Facts are their are good solutions at price just above what
> we pay now but it will take 10 yrs to deploy them.
>
> There is plenty of energy out there, we just lack the equipment to
> catch, make it.
>
> The problem is not technical but but political. If we stopped giving
> such huge corporate welfare to big oil, coal, tax them for there
> full, real cost the rest would solve itself in a real free market.
>
>
> The beauty of a oil tax paying the costs of oil like the Persian
> gulf military, oil wars, etc, about $1.50/gal is it would cause the
> price of crude to drop making Iran, Russia, oil dictators and terrorists
> pay most of it. With the income we could get a tax break and help
> switching to alt energy.
>
> This would save $1T/yr in imported oil will cost in 2 yrs if we don't,
> $250B/yr in military, oil war costs, enough to pay the national debt
> in 10 yrs plus create millions of jobs and a great economy.
>
> If we don't, will be broke and make our enemies rich. Your choice.
> Call your congressperson today and demand a oil tax with a tax cut.
>
>
> Personally I build custom EV's so I'll make out like a bandit either
> way as will those owning RE production equipment selling the energy.

Peak Oil for Dummies

Peak oil is not a political problem. it is a geophysicasl problem. the places you say to drill that can't be drilled in right now would not make a dent in the oil production problem. In currentproducing fields that are like a pincusion and there is no pressure left to force theoil out, or are not mealiable to injection wells, the increased 20 percent you get from the resivoir will come out in low flow rates to not be of much consequence. the response and the answer to peak oil or inadequate flow rates or whatever you want to call it is a political controlled, that i will give to you. I believe the first response would be a floor on oil and gas prices so there would be constant exploration, or R&D for new alternatives. at least 80 dollars for oil and 7 dollars for nat gas. THEN AN AGENCY LIKE THE PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE THAT LINKS ALL ALL UNIVERSITIES AND CORPORATE RESEARCH TOGETHER . Call it the Public Energy Service, be established to coordinate the building of a policy and structure that we need.


On Aug 09 10:47 AM geophys wrote:

> There is no such thing as peak oil. Only artificial peak oil brought
> on by political means. Meaning "don't drill here, can't drill there,
> legislate no drill areas, don't touch Greenland or the Antarctic."
> We make our ouwn peak oil by not allowing exploration. Africa has
> been largely underexplored, large areas of the the US Continental
> Shelf-underexplored, reinvestment into mis managed Russian Oil field
> would lead to billions of secondary recovery. Future recovery efforts
> of known fields using nano techology or the like will yield 50-60%
> recovery of original oil in place. That would be a 50-100% increase
> in recoverable oil. There is no end in site in my kids, my kids kids
> or mys kids kids kids lifetime. Unless of course we chose (legislate)
> to make peak oil happen.

Today in Commodities: It's All About Timing

I appreciate your insite on China and aggree with you but how does that translate into 3-5yrs of oil trading in the $60 - to $75 dollar range. if the US economy and Eruope's economy just stabelises then oil will be trading in the $75 - $90 range by this time next year. There is way to much doubt about oil capacity how fast it can ramp up to replace drplation in this past year on very low drilling activity.


On Jul 20 09:43 PM Tom Colangelo wrote:

> OIL WILL STAY IN $60 – 75 RANGE FOR 3-5 YEARS, UNLESS THE GLOBAL
> ECONOMY SLIPS INTO A MORE SERIOUS RECESSION.
>
> WHY DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? The Chinese think long range.
>
> If you were responsible for China’s economy for the next 25 years,
> what would you be concerned about?
>
> * Not a 6 – 12 month slack in oil demand from the global recession.
>
> * Not the imminent decline of your largest competitor/ customer’s
> economy over the nxt 5 years.
> * Not your temporary embarrassment of riches accumulated over the
> last 30 years.
>
> NO, NO, NO!
>
> You would be celebrating the above because they allow you to buy
> / hoard natural resources you will desperately need for your economy
> over the next 20 years, at the lowest cost possible.
>
>
> Look at what we worry about:
>
> • When will the recession end?
> • How bad will the taxes be for the rescue?
> • Will our jobs come back?
>
> China needs the U.S. consumer for the short term. They have an enormous
> home market to develop and they will internalize our technology,
> creativity, and intellectual resources, like the Japanese did, and
> become the dominant economy for the next 100 years.
>
> Yes there are many ways this vision could fail, but as of today,
> it is a viable outlook, in my opinion.
>
> BET ON OIL & related services stocks like BP, HES, XON, RDSB,
> COP, OXY, NBR, RIG, etc.
>
> Much of their revenues are international and will actually benefit
> from the U.S. inflation we expect.
> They pay strong dividends and will make money no matter which country’s
> economy is growing.

$20 Oil by Year's End?

I aggree 100 percent. You said it more precisely than I could. But I don't know exactly about the price. Also Iran is predicted to be having some issues and is in decline and could be a net importer by 2014 or 2015.


On Jul 19 11:08 PM User 398494 wrote:

> This guy is smoking crayons. It really bugs me to hear this guy make
> a strong statement with no information to back it up. Please take
> a look at the BP official website (1).
> -Does he know that Global oil consumption declined by only ba a paltry
> 0.6% in 2008 according to BP? Does he know that:
> - China had 6.9% GDP growth in 2008?
> - India's economic GDP growth in 2008 was 6.7%.
> - The Middle East growth in 2008 5.5%.
> - India's population 1.17 billion
> - China's population 1.31 billion
> - Middle East population 350 million
>
> Also please download the BP excel sheet from the below link(1) and
> look at the reserves, including all oil producing countries there
> is 1.25 trillion (barrels) bbl left in the ground in stated reserves.
> According BP the world has already consumed about 1.5 trillion bbl
> and the world uses approximately 89million barrels per day.
>
> 1.25 trillion divided by 89 million times 365days a year and you
> will get 38 years. More importantly Saudi Arabia simply states their
> oil reserves and will not allow third party verification the reserves;
> must trust them on this critical issue? And you and I know extracting
> the last half of the oil reserves from the earth is always more difficult
> than the first half. Note that Saudi Arabia's largest oil field Ghawar
> is in sever decline and a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water
> are being injected into the field to prop up pressure to extract.
> Russia is in 6% decline year to year, Mexico's Cantrell oil field
> is in sever decline 16% a year according to SeekingAlpha (3) news.
>
>
> The recovery will be quick and the pressure of oil force it to rise
> back to $100bbl by summer of next year or even sooner due of inflation.
>
>
>
> (1) www.bp.com/productland...;contentId=7044622
>
> (2) population and growth numbers from wolframalpha.com<;br/>(3)
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
> (4)

$20 Oil by Year's End?

If you really know the oil industry, you would know that industry people and investors are worried about mexico's serious depletion problem. Also the North sea, Nigeria unrest , Veneszualia (sp) Russia are all in decline. We are worried that it might only be a year until the decline in world production gets close to user rates even without a recovery. if that happens at low prices their will be a world crises.


On Jul 19 09:22 AM The Greatest Rip Off of our Time wrote:

> Never before has the theory of supply and demand been proven so wrong
> in this one commodity product as has been shown in the 2009 rise
> in the price of crude oil this year. Every available storage facility
> is running over with supply, gas inventories are working on a three
> month increase in spite of all the prognosticators predicting drops
> in inventory. The world is simply over ran with the stuff at this
> point in time, and yet, the price has risen to around $71 a barrel
> and gas around $3 a gallon once again. Only recently has the price
> started to loose some steam, or maybe it was just profit taken. Whatever
> the reason, one must question the validity of the supply vs demand
> theory on this one commodity. Seriously, who tells us there is only
> this much oil left here or there? Where are the inventory reports
> generated? What entity promotes the “Peak Oil Theory”? OPEC controls
> around 40% of the oil market, that leaves another 60% from other
> producers. But then there are the 5 major oil companies who act as
> the middlemen, who have their finger on the pulse of the world’s
> economy. It is simply the control of the supply to market that generates
> the volatility in the commodities industry today, coupled with some
> inside information creating the speculation of the product. The ability
> of a few that affects the whole world’s economy. This is sometimes
> called the “Dark Energy Trading” loopholes, going back to the re-writing
> of the energy commodity bill by Phil Graham.(2000)
> Another example of the effects of speculators in the crude oil commodities
> market was the “ Rogue Trader” who with a 16 million barrel order
> of crude, pushed up the price of crude oil $4 in the blink of an
> eye. (that’s just twice the amount of oil Saudi Arabia’s daily production)
> So one can keep believing in the supply and demand theory, or take
> off the blinders.

More Bullishness for Oil Heading into 2010

Excellent article. Well documented. $80.00 does not sound out of line for next year, hopefully it is on the low side. I say hopefully because I own a few and gas and oil wells.

Expect Recovery in Oil Prices - Barclays

newsflash: people around the world are starting to get it. it being the real value of oil. The fact that it is limited in the future increases its value now. It is not corn, or iron ore. You economist treat it like its just another comodity when it is not. This is what Matthew Simmons has been preaching. Because there is a surplus now does not diminish its value to the economy and what it does for civilization.


On Jul 17 03:57 PM The Greatest Rip Off of our Time wrote:

> News Flash, people are not driving, they are not buying, especially
> gas today. We are in a DEEP recession and will be for a long time.
> The world has not recovered from the last round of speculated crude
> oil pricing games to use enough to push the price up, much less hold
> it around $60.00. Oil $35-40 a barrel by Dec. Oil prices have been
> on life support since Feb and it is going Code-Blue soon.

The Economy Can't Be That Bad if Thousands Can Pay $100 for a Ballgame

You have to get out of tunnell vision about your situation and look at the country a a whole. this is a big country an it has pockets. Some pocket things are not verry good. and some pockets like cincinnati ohio things are not that bad. on my side of the city we look and say what recession the stores and resturants are full. we never had boom years here but we do have a diversity of jobs. Northern ohio where is mostly manufacturing it is bad.my point is it is not bad everywhere. Yet


On Jun 27 10:49 AM a. palmer jr. wrote:

> I guess what I tried to say above is THE ECONOMY IS THAT BAD..it's
> just not affecting everyone, same as the great depression where they
> had people that were starving and people wasting their money going
> to ball games. If you look very hard you'll see the ones who are
> broke and homeless.

U.S. Oil Imports at Risk

when you start quoting the oil price there is one thing you should remember. I am in the oil and gas business, i own pieces of actual oil wells. at 72.00 dollars quoted price for light sweet crude the producers only recieve 64 to 65 dollars depending on the refinery. Heaver crude has a greater spread. Saudi oil has a bigger crack spread of probably $9.00 to $10.00 dollars but they might contract to sell large volumes less than that. There isn,t that much light sweet crude produced anymore so most of the oil is not anywhere near the quoted price for producers.

Oil: Up to $200 or Down to $25?

i think you had a typo or something as we only have capicity for up to one billion barrels in our strategic oil reserve.
j.b.


On Jun 07 06:54 AM Tom Armistead wrote:

> Bill Clinton tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during his presidency
> with oil around 30 per barrel. He released 30 billion barrels, with
> the recipients obigated to return it when prices became more favorable.
> The market retreated.
>
> If Obama becomes concerned speculators are driving oil prices above
> what supply and demand considerations support, he could repeat Clinton's
> maneuver, enough to drive prices down to levels consistent with sustained
> economic recovery.
>
> Free market capitalism relies on market participants to allocate
> resources in the best interests of the economy. Unfortunately speculators
> manipulate markets, creating economic inefficiencies. Government
> intervention is one possible way to deal with this problem.

My Oil Outlook

so what
oil is a global market. it doesn,t matter what happens in the u.s.

On May 03 09:12 AM The Greatest Rip Off of our Time wrote:

> The best part about oil's plunge into the $40 and $50 barrel in about
> six months?
>
> A de-facto tax cut for American motorists. Each $1 per barrel drop
> in oil increases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent
> decline in gasoline increases U.S. consumer disposable income by
> $600 million per year.
> The last 20 years have been characterized by rising U.S. oil consumption,
> but now the U.S. Energy Information Agency. incorporating the most-recent
> changes in U.S. consumer behavior, says there will be no appreciable
> growth in U.S. oil consumption between now and 2030, with biofuels
> accounting for all of the growth in liquid fuels.