Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
I drink lot of black coffee. The fresh brew from Starbuck store is the best. Home-made K-cup, dark and bold in 10oz size is better than any corner store and as good as McDonald or Dunkin Donuts. How Starbuck store brews better than K-cup? The tricks are (1) amount ground coffee used, Starbuck 10g for 6 floz and average Kcup 9g; (2)Temperature, Starbuck 195~205C and Kcup 187~192C, Vue 1867~197C, I prewarm my coffee mug to get better taste using Keurig. (3) Water, don't use tap water (4) Brew process, Starbuck uses commercial machine and brew in large quantity and be able to extract most flavors, Keurig is single cup and no way to beat the commercial, but good enough to enjoy a good coffee.
Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
I am thinking how to profit from the run to $75~80 or even higher and that is why I set the target for short interest change. Meanwhile, if you really want to short, AMZN and NFLX are better candidates. AMZN for its revenue and profit miss for last several quarter. NFLX for much bigger overvalue and multiple tough competitors.
Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
Great arguments. I totally agree with your analysis but do not come out your conclusion. GMCR is not a good short candidate. GMCR is overvalued but it is not the reason to short. I still long GMCR is because of high short interest and GMCR's future growth (it can be slower but still grows). When short interest is below 20m, I might take the profit and run. Current GMCR longs are very strong hands as those longs are in at $20~30 level. The shorts are all underwater if GMCR is over $70. Market is inefficient and manipulated, just be careful.
Amazon Is A Toll Bridge: Next Toll - Ads [View article]
Recent high on Amazon's "new" business, Ad misses a point: Different from other Ad platforms, facebook, google, yahoo or ebay, Amazon is a retailer and there is conflict of interest. Amazon competes for the sale of the item that it may advertise for other retailers.
Microsoft's Surface Pro: It's A Hit [View article]
The review rating is only part of story. You need to look at the number of review. I would not say too much with 84 and 11 reviews. Several hundreds might do.
Is Google Making A Critical Mistake? [View article]
Google's retail could be quite different than AMZN, more like Alibaba's Tianmao Mall. Google only provides online platform and local delivery for participate retailers. There are no warehouse and inventory, which are the local stores of participate retailers. In short, it just like shop local. There are some local delivery companies around and AMZN actually use them for last mile delivery. Since all goods are local, one-day delivery is practical, just like pizza delivery. Google get orders for those retailers and send out carriers to those stores to pickup and deliver the good locally. Even though AMZN will build more warehouses but still can not compete with local for one-day delivery. For sure, the price of good from those retailers is higher but you might willing to paid for same day delivery to save trip to the store. If AMZN could not provide significant discount, shopper will go local and recent AMZN's price is not as good as before.
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
You did get my points. Since the change of short interest is dynamic, I can only do reasonable guessing. With the short who did it before last may and covered around $25, I don't think they will come back so soon with current momentum of GMCR, especially there is still 30m short interest. The major themes of short at that time, Kcup patent and financial statement are now in the back burner. GMCR at current price is fairly valued. But what the hack, this is Wall Street, they can push anything into sky, just to exit before crash. For speculate long, the exit time is when short interest goes down to 10m.
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
Hi benitus, if short interest is only 2~3%, I could join you to short. But with 24% short of float, I am with long. Except market crash, GMCR will not be down much with those short support. Single cup is the trend and Keurig leads the way. CokeCola is still growing with all generic Cola. The worry of non-GMCR kcup competition is overblown. GMCR is pricey currently. There is Wall Street that can push AAPL to $700, GMCR to $115 and NFLX to $300 before they all crashed but if you get out on time, you make lot of money. No play no gain. I want to be in GMCR for a long-term but buy-and-hold is bad under current Fed policy and Wall Street manipulation. Stock can run very high into sky and crash even with great company, like AAPL, make you trading only. For GMCR, it will be welcome if short come back for a big time, it could give me another chance to buy in cheap. But I don't think it could happen. To add short from current 24%, the short need to believe GMCR will go bankruptcy. For long, majority longs have very low cost base, only in one week last May, more than all shares of GMCR was turnovered and turnovered couple times at around $25 in last Summer. All weak long were gone last Summer and the speculate long took their profit last December. The rest of long is hard core. After GMCR broke $48, it just don't go down; it backups really quick even down slightly in the down or up Market. For Short, 28m net short was done less than $25. There are 23m short before last May with possible $70 cost base, but how many left after GMCR under $25 for quite a long time. For long with $25 cost base, it is easy to play the game; they afford to buy at higher price and only raise little cost base while how much gun powder short still have ( you need to pay 2% annum to short GMCR, it is expensive). I would rather bet on long than short. If market turns south, there is lot of other shorts available with low short interest and poor earning. Why stick on GMCR?
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
Great summary. My simple take of short interest: (1) In December 2012, net 18.8m shares covered, stock price up $4.7 from $36.7 to $41.3, some long took profit and short was able to cover in low price. (2) In January 2013, net 4.9m shares covered, stock price up $4.2 from $41.3 to $45.5, long held hand and short got squeezed. (3) 1st half of Feb, 2013, net short increase $3.8m and stock price down $1.1 from $45.5 to $44.4. Short tried to fight in vain. (4) 2nd half of Feb, net short was flat but price up $3.4 from $44.4 to $47.8. Long charged ahead. (5) 1st half of Mar, stock price up $6.4 to $54.2. I guess it is combination of short squeeze and long buying. If mid-March short interest did not drop big, GMCR will have room to run (to $70) before next earning report. If mid-March short interest did not drop much, GMCR will have limit upside. The run of GMCR in last few months has been fast. The remain 30.8m shorts are under water, some could be very deep. GMCR could be somewhat overvalued at current price but not what the short believe. The high short interest is my major reason to still long GMCR for trade only. GMCR is great company and is worth to own for long term, but at what price?
If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
Google Shopping Express might not be the same as Amason.com. Google just provide a platform for local retail, large like Target, small like mom and pop and could team up with local delivery company. I don't think Google need to charge shopper. Google will make money by referrals. If you know the best e-retail in China is Alibaba, now TianMao, which don't have any physical inventory and only provide virtual real estate and software support. When AMZN expand its distribution centers, it become Walmart like. AMZN is great company but I will not touch it at current valuation. AMZN is in low margin business, except its Book business but the stock price shows a real high margin business.
Muni Bond CEFs Take A Beating Again [View article]
As the author rightly point out that the option-income CEF is good alternative to muni CEF, not only it offers 8~9%, but also sells at discount. But ROC is bit problem from Brokerage form. This year I received Form 1099-DIV, both brokerages I used all entered the ROC portion in line 1a as ordinary dividend instead of line 3, nondividend contribution. That make me hesitate to invest more on option-income CEF.
Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
Green Mountain: Starbucks Deal Hides Poor Report [View article]
Amazon Is A Toll Bridge: Next Toll - Ads [View article]
Google Removes Beta From GCE And Declares War On Amazon [View article]
http://bloom.bg/10App75
Microsoft's Surface Pro: It's A Hit [View article]
Is Google Making A Critical Mistake? [View article]
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
Does Green Mountain Have More Upside? [View article]
If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
If Amazon Is So Overvalued Why Does Google Want To Be Like It? [View article]
Muni Bond CEFs Take A Beating Again [View article]
Muni Bond CEFs Take A Beating Again [View article]