jeerio

Will the Fed Finally Embrace Quantitative Easing Tonight?

these costs are great over time, and it demonstrates the value of trust and confidence. we are re-purchasing those assets, and if we succeed, it will be worth it. if we fail at re-building confidence in the country and trust in the economic system, nothing else will work.

Calling Off Depression 2.0?

real progress will be reflected in a small selection of barometers that are primarily demad-driven and less affected by rampant speculation. (are there any of that sort??)

for me, i'll be watching nat gas, silver (for the production value), consumer discretionary index, and my local restaurant and retailer closings this summer/fall.

Government Bond Yields Could Go Lower

gold went higher due to dollar weakness on today's actions by the fed, as opposed to fears of immediate inflationary conditions. but if you think about it, these fed policies will take 2-3 years to playh out, and by that time, interest rates will be rising and monetary expansion will be creating the ultimate inflation many of us expect.

gold, dollar down, oil, short 20 yr treasuries, and soft commodities - my choices over this coming time period.

Why This May Have Been a Sucker's Rally

i'd tend to agree, and would call this 'rally' more mental relief than renewed belief. while making money the past three days, i've also added to my short positions. many layers yet to be exposed, and they will be nasty, and dash the hopes that this is getting better soon.

Permabear Grantham Turns Bullish

for those who dream of investing about now and enjoying a bear market rally that will shift recent fortunes (mis-fortunes) that will signal a bright new day ahead, i'd think twice. the pain and destruction is hardly over yet, and the pressures on the system is too great too allow much upside movement.

actually, despite my tone, i'd enjoy a huge ride up, as it would make it very easy to go short, go on vacation for two moths and never worry about checking the market!

Gold Could Rise to $2,500 - UBS

problem is, when gold hits 2500, milk will be $25, and the plastic container it comes in will be illegal.

Estimating the Intrinsic Value Distribution of the S&P 500

i estimate that clicking my mouse while sitting at my desk costs me .27 calories of energy. if i make a trade every 100 clicks, one trade equals 27 calories. 10 trades per day can be fueled by a Cheerios breakfast, and if i make an average of .2% net profit per trade, on capital risked, that's 2% per trading day.

so long, buy and hold....

Wait and See: A Less than Perfect Banking Policy

The Wait is necessary, even though it's clearly not desirable. the scope and depth of the problem is so severe, our economic and social systems couldn't absorb the additional shock...so we wait, and in the meantime, we adjust to this new American reality of diminished future expectations.

Fresh Oil Supply Data and Potential Market Impact

if my recollection is correct, the shale or tar sands production costs run about $45/bbl. with inital capital costs required to get into production (considering the new world of tight lending), i doubt we'll see these alternatives for decades to come.

Time to Short Long Term Government Bonds Now

there will never be the political (or social) will to default - there will be inflation. interest rates will need to rise again, and andrewbaker is correct, that's when to agressively short long treasuries. i made 20% on TBT in Janaury, but am waiting before getting back in again.

besides just trading the market, best thing to do until that time is begin small positions in oil, gold, dollar negative and ag etf's, then ramp them all up at first sign of interest rate hikes.

The Andrew Jackson Portfolio - Nine Stocks for $20

this parlor game illustrates the process our country is going through. we tend to romanticize the familiar, those once-sturdy names we feel comfortable with. so comfortable, we'd invest in them and cheer them on like your neighbor's kid at a tee-ball game.

problem is, all that romanticized corporate Americana will be changing in more gut-wrenching ways, so maybe the best idea is to take possession of the stock certs and sell have your grandchildren sell them on the PBS auction program.

Illegal Downloads Costing Music Industry $10 Billion

a friend of mine has just offered me 150,000 songs he has ripped from his vast cd collection. the 1TB drive will cost me $110, plus the time to make the transfers.

on the other hand, i paid $110 to see Peter Frampton in December, and almost $300 to see Springsteen earlier last year.

this shows that the experintial model is what works versus the attempt to make zillions on the purchases of the content alone.

watching U2 on Letterman this past week is another example. they invested much to push their new music, by first giving it away on TV. the audience connection will spur sales as opposed to static advertsing.

the industry needs to collaborate more with other experiences in order to sell new material to technology-driven and otherwise jaded listeners.

Linn Energy: Safe Dividends, Speculative Upside

interestingly, the graph shows that LINE peak-to-today's price virtually mirrors the drop in oil. with the distribution of gains and the hedge angle as good margins of saftey, this makes me think the upside here is quite strong.

Bank of America: A Risky Bet That May Be Worth It - Barron's

i agree with whidbey, above. removal of M2M will create a false bottom that will still need to be tested and proven over a significant time period. it's just another version of trying to pick a bottom, and while some will make the attempt, this action has been shown to fail, miserably. if i miss a 100% upside on BAC, it will be fine. i'd rather make my 3 bucks from 10 to 13 when things are more reliable and visible.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

let me suggest that any two or more people who want to waste space arguing repetitively like much of what's above, please do it via instant message.

regarding the article, it's a bit disconected to combine the incendiary topic of depression with a recommendation for shorting a single stock. writers here are better served to keep these distant topics separate.