jeerio

Government Bond Yields Could Go Lower

gold went higher due to dollar weakness on today's actions by the fed, as opposed to fears of immediate inflationary conditions. but if you think about it, these fed policies will take 2-3 years to playh out, and by that time, interest rates will be rising and monetary expansion will be creating the ultimate inflation many of us expect.

gold, dollar down, oil, short 20 yr treasuries, and soft commodities - my choices over this coming time period.

Where Are Jim Rogers, Marc Faber and Doug Casey Investing Their Money in This Market?

Rogers' timing is usually off at first, then he gets it right the second time he approaches, al la TBT. he also has his own listed ag fund, RJA, so that's what he buys when he buys ag.

all these guys are right and all of them are wrong, usually just a timing thing which in times like these are mostly a matter of luck. i doubt even the most 'short-minded' would have said we'd be down 24% for the year on March 2nd.

Treasuries Struggle Alongside Stocks

I got lucky and bought TBT two weeks ago, so I'm up 20% on what I imagined would take a bit longer, lol. While my longer-term trading experience tells me to sell and enjoy the profits, I can't seem to actually pull the trigger. And while the temptation is great to double-down on such a winning position, I don't think that's advisable either.

From all the posts I've been reading in the area of Treasuries, gold, inflation, etc., I believe the prudent thing is to simply play the field with an asset allocation approach. Chances are all the things being prognosticated will happen and none of us know the sequence, duration, severity or driving forces in advance.

Too often we all can fall into the trap that prescribes "The Way it Has to Happen" - a neatly arranged package of events that make perfect sense yet never actually occur the way we think they will.

The entire system is broken and rules from the past no longer apply. The real wild card is the psychic damage done to the consumer and the sectors that are being pummeled. Patience is the key since new eras need to find their way in a fashion that frustrates even the most seasoned and highly-lauded thinkers.

Just like over-trading, over-prognosticating typically wears thin and unprofitable fairly quickly.

The reality is, if I continue to hold this original (1200 sh) position in TBT, I expect it may lose the 20% already gained. At That point, I'll be even more convinced that I'm on the right track, and would likely increase the position. There's something viscerally meaningful about being in the game as opposed to simply talking about it, especially when you know perfectly well that timing is rarely on your side.