Angry Taxpayer

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part II

Maybe the are selling all currencies for something a little more tangible?


On May 22 01:56 AM avd wrote:

> For your doubts about Russian holdings of Treasures here is some
> data from CBR (Central Bank of Russia) :
>
> The structure of reserves as of Sep 2008 (cbr.ru/publ/Obzor/2009...):
>
>
> cash: 13.4 %
> repo: 24.2 %
> papers: 62.3 %
>
> The structure of reserves as of Jan 2008 (cbr.ru/publ/Obzor/2009...):
>
>
> cash: 8.1 %
> repo: 1.2 %
> papers: 90.7 %
> (gov papers 77.5 %, non-gov papers: 13.2 %)
>
> This data alone reflects the significant shift in the structure of
> Russian Central Bank reserves. In addition to this there are reports
> that last fall CBR sold about 50 bn of agency debt (Freddie and Fanny)
> and purchased Treasures instead. And since February CBR was not selling
> dollars anymore, it was buying them to slow ruble appreciation a
> bit, and it bought about 20 bn up to now.
>
> Also it's not clear why you claim that "Kremlin sold $221 billion
> US dollars". Yes, it is nominal amount the reserves were decreased
> by. But if Kremlin was selling only dollars, then having initially
> 47% in dollars and 42% in euros, now they would have something like
> 5% percent dollars and 90% euros. But actually they still have 42%
> of dollars. Obviously the were selling both dollar end euro assets.
> And probably at the same buying other assets that they deemed more
> safe.
>
> All in all I don't see much reason to doubt the amount of Treasures
> holdings by Russia.