Amateur Hour

Jeff Macke's bizarre attack on fellow CNBC commentator Dennis Kneale is making the rounds. If anyone has the faintest idea what he's talking about, let us know in the comments.

Not sure the cause of the outburst, but he was also not all there on Fast Money earlier that evenning.

He did write the following in a Minyanville article, which indicates he didn't sleep the night before his episode:

"After spending most of yesterday scratching my head until it bled (again), then overshooting my goal of getting up early by meeting my goal with the wildly bad ironic twist of not sleeping at all last night, it’s safe to say that I failed my personal stress test before today even started."

No point in speculating the cause of his sleepless night. I wish him nothing but health, happiness & success.

Jeff Macke's bizarre attack on fellow CNBC commentator Dennis Kneale is making the rounds. If anyone has the faintest idea what he's talking about, let us know in the comments.

Not sure the cause of the outburst, but he was also not all there on Fast Money earlier that evenning.

He did write the following in a Minyanville article, which indicates he didn't sleep the night before his episode:

"After spending most of yesterday scratching my head until it bled (again), then overshooting my goal of getting up early by meeting my goal with the wildly bad ironic twist of not sleeping at all last night, it’s safe to say that I failed my personal stress test before today even started."

No point in speculating the cause of his sleepless night. I wish him nothing but health, happiness & success.

Newspapers Mull Group 'Trust Fall' into Pay Model

Everyone one needs to calm down.

As I've stated before, the newspapers, unlike the WSJ made a fundamental flaw in devising their online business model. Simply put, "free is not a business model".

And, in failing to recognize they were entering a world where content can be poached, reproduced, commentated on and editorialized instantaneously, the erroneously continued to believe that their content held the same value online as it did in print.

They've commoditized their own and their competitors content. When you have a commodity, and no-value add, the only way to ensure a certain price is to band together in a cartel for the greater good of the industry (ala OPEC).

I think the AP has it right in going after aggregators and the like -- not news readers. It is those who build economic value on top of the raw product -- news content -- that are in a position and most likely to pay for the right to reproduce and / or used newspaper content.

Newspapers Mull Group 'Trust Fall' into Pay Model

Everyone one needs to calm down.

As I've stated before, the newspapers, unlike the WSJ made a fundamental flaw in devising their online business model. Simply put, "free is not a business model".

And, in failing to recognize they were entering a world where content can be poached, reproduced, commentated on and editorialized instantaneously, the erroneously continued to believe that their content held the same value online as it did in print.

They've commoditized their own and their competitors content. When you have a commodity, and no-value add, the only way to ensure a certain price is to band together in a cartel for the greater good of the industry (ala OPEC).

I think the AP has it right in going after aggregators and the like -- not news readers. It is those who build economic value on top of the raw product -- news content -- that are in a position and most likely to pay for the right to reproduce and / or used newspaper content.

Gold Approaching 200-Day Moving Average

To the Author -

Could you let me know what charting software you're using?

Thanks in advance.

Coinstar and Netflix: Two Shorts on Movie Rentals

Ryan -

Either your pen name is "Martin Peers" or you lifted his analysis on Coinstar from page C10 of the WSJ this morning.

Fellow commentors, don't take my word for it. Link to "No Guarantees for Red-Hot DVD Machine" is below.

Come on man. Maintain a little integrity, or at least independent thinking.

online.wsj.com/article...

10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid

As many insightful commentators have noted above, not all leverage is created equal. Thus, it's dangerous to make blanket statements.

At the crux is what asset, and business model, is underlying the debt (not just the interest expense, but also the principle). If it is relatively stable and safe free cash flow, then your filter and analysis are misguided.

It is interesting that there are no REITs on you list. These Cos have the worst kind of leverage. Their cash flow may cover interest expense, but they count on rolling over massive amounts of debt ever few years on the back of illiquid assets that, during times of economic downturn, are decreasing in value.

I question your analysis on the basis that not one of these Cos appears to have landed on your danger list.

Good luck to all.

Talks between IBM (IBM) and Sun Microsystems (JAVA) are on the brink of collapse. You heard it here first.

Sorry, Teutonic.

I don't have any skin in this game, but take a look at where JAVA closed on March 17th -- $4.97 -- before rumors of the IBM deal started flying.

IMHO, you'll see the price drop pretty precipitously at the open.

Geithner's PPIP: Are We Really This Stupid? - Barron's

One point of clarification.

While you are correct that treasury could find ample participants to gamble with taxpayer dollars, the plan is being arranged so as to exclude all but a few bidders.

See this WSJ Article, "Treasury's Very Private Asset Fund"

online.wsj.com/article...

Good luck to all.

China's call for some magical solution to the problem of its huge dollar reserve suggests a bigger problem, Paul Krugman writes: Its leaders have yet to come to grips with the fact that the rules of the game have changed in a fundamental way.

Until reading Krugman's article, this never crossed my mind but -- what if China's recent hoarding of commodities is not so much based on growth at home but, rather, on their attempt to hedge their concern re: the imminent decline in value of their dollar reserves?

Maybe this sticks a thorn in the side of the argument that chinese demand for commodities signals the imminent return of global demand.

The Bull Case for Simon Property Group

Also, REIT bull, any assets are recorded at historical prices. CRE properties are declining in value -- don't take my word for it; take a look at the basement price SPG sold a Cinncinati property for in January.

In the short run longs may benefit from the occassional short squeeze or short cover rally, but IMHO you're playing with fire.

In any event, good luck to you and others (on both the long and short side of this).

Rupert Murdoch (NWS) says the time has come for newspapers to charge for online content.

The problem is that once you start giving something away for nothing, people won't pay for it.

In their rush to grab eyeballs or market share, too many companies in the online world failed, and continue to fail, to realize that "free" is not a business model.

Tiger Global's Q408 13F: Microsoft is #1 Holding

Thanks for the info. Any insight re: the replacement of CSX with BNI in the portfolio?

I know there's been some talk re: BNI as a potential takeover target, but wonder if you are aware of something else that may be making this name relatively more attractive.

First time I've come accross one of your postings, so you may have already covered this, but Buffett has a large stake in BNI and, in fact, increased his holdings aprox 2 months ago.

IMHO, the transports have gotten a little ahead of themselves on the misonceptions that we won't still be trying to backfill the output gap that's been credit in recent quarters.

Good luck to all.

The Bull Case for Simon Property Group

I respectfully disagree with this analysis on a number of fronts.

You are missing the issue here. What is important is not a REITs ability to cover it's interest exprense, rather it is the ability to roll-over maturing debt that matters. GGPs problem (and SPGs looming problem) is about refinancing risk -- in other words, solvency. Banks won't underwrite roll-over debt in the comming years b/c with the underlying commercial properties declining in value, the LTV won't permit it.

Recent actions by SPG show they are in the beginning of a major crisis. First, if their cash position were particularly stong, they would not have had to distribute 90% of the value of their dividend payment to shareholders in additional equity. Their need to preserve cash comes from weakness, not strength/

Second, SPG recently had to pay more than 400 bps more for senior unsecured financing than they did when they raised twice as much senior unsecured financing last May.

The commercial real estate peak was 18 - 24 months behind the residential real estate peak. The CRE bust will be similarly spaced.

Good luck to all.

Bullish on REITs Equity Sales

Capital Pains -

Be careful using SRS as a vehicle for shorting CRE. There have been a number of articles on this site and others explaining that leveraged ETFs, such as SRS are really only good for short-term trades.

As "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" notes above, if you want to go short CRE but don't want to do the diligence on individual names, going short IYR is the best play.

Good luck to all.