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HIGHWATER 888

HIGHWATER 888
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  • 3D Systems Is Getting Stronger [View article]
    3D's 'entry' into an already fully served market for dental prosthetic products adds little or nothing to the future technology of 3D. In fact, even if they are generating revenue from these products in the near term (which I doubt) the only thing they will have accomplished is paying a high price for the right to compete in a business segment with declining margins.

    One wonders whether 3D's M&A process serves any purpose other than 'juicing' their rate of growth.
    Apr 3 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: A Merger With Either Hewlett-Packard Or Epson Is Possible [View article]
    Exactly right. It takes a wonderful sense of humor to imagine that MW (or the HP board) would ever consider the purchase of DDD ... what would they call the transaction, 'Autonomy 2.0'? Informed traders will file this article under #Pipe Dream, #Fantasy and #Tax Loss ... LOL.
    Mar 20 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is Dead Money, But Rivals Nu Skin And USANA May Be Ready To Rock [View article]
    The 10K is out and the news from China is not good. The regulatory action against NUS may result in a harsh fine and NUS has admitted that they have already been forced to change their business model and could face further regulatory restrictions. Wedbush (and others) were simply 'pumping' the stock when the speculated on a "favorable" Chinese outcome and --as I stated above-- you made the mistake of aiding their 'shoddy research' by republishing their unfounded comments. Rumor & unfounded speculation is an ugly stock market virus that spreads quickly and usually leaves the unsophisticated investor 'sick' with losses.

    NUS: "ready to rock" Indeed .... Next time question your sources and don't get played....
    Mar 18 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why 3D Systems Is A Solid Buy Right Now [View article]
    I agree. It is also worth pointing out that the torrid pace of DDD's M&A (40 in 36 months) probably lowers the chance of successful integration. In fact, for a company the size of DDD, that pace of M&A is a red flag: it looks more like an effort to manage 'growth' numbers than a careful plan to value to DDD's business.
    Mar 17 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is Dead Money, But Rivals Nu Skin And USANA May Be Ready To Rock [View article]
    Yes. I know about the "may not be all that severe" speculation but I am looking for the rational supporting the Wedbush comments. Do you have any information on that or are we all simply republishing 'rumors & speculation'? By the way... if you look at yesterday's NUS chart, it seems obtuse to say that the radical trading action was based on generic "investor optimism".
    Mar 13 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is Dead Money, But Rivals Nu Skin And USANA May Be Ready To Rock [View article]
    What was the basis for Wedbush comments about a 'positive resolution' of the Chinese regulatory action against NUS? Can you provide any detail? I have been unable to find any published details; moreover, as of yesterday afternoon, NUS itself was denying that they had any resolution or commentary from Chinese regulators. So what did Wedbush actually say that moved NUS up by 10%?
    Mar 13 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: 1-Year Price Target Of $86 [View article]
    You make an excellent point Kaye. Why should we assume that --having grown mainly through a torrid pace of acquisitions-- DDD will now effortlessly transition to a period of 'organic' growth with "60% gross margin"? Many of the assumptions made in this article regarding DDD's potential for FCF don't seem conservative enough to be useful.
    Mar 6 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: What To Make Of The Earnings? [View article]
    Canaccord upgrade has the unintended effect of focusing market attention on the fanciful claim that DDD will reach "$1 Billion in Sales" in 2015 ... that would be roughly a 100% increase from the low end of the projected 2014 number. IMO, that number is not credible based on organic growth (and --significantly-- was not presented as 'guidance' by DDD management).
    Feb 28 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITT Educational Services: Downward Spiral From High Tuition And Low Transparency [View article]
    "For-profit" education is the next "sub-prime". One can only think that the CFPB's focus on ITT risks making ESI the next 'Lehman'.
    Feb 28 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: What To Make Of The Earnings? [View article]
    You are certainly credulous when it comes to a positive 'spin' on DDD's numbers: generally, it is not good news when a growth & momentum stock merely meets lowered expectations. Moreover, although DDD management continues to 'talk the talk' of organic growth, IMO they cannot hope to approach the 2015 projection of "$1 Billion in Sales" without continuing their aggressive --and risky-- history of growth through M&A.

    PS - What do you think of the inventory build in printers and the explanation offered by management?
    Feb 28 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: 3D Systems [View article]
    The technical setup going into earnings on the 28th is not favorable for DDD. The shares have been locked on either side of the 100MA (about $75)for the better part of a week but with major overhead resistance (the 50 day MA) at about $80 and major support (the 200 day MA) at about $60, you can easily do the 'risk/reward' estimation related to good news or bad: $15 downside risk vs. $5 upside potential.
    Feb 27 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3-D Printing Industry: A Long-Term Win [View article]
    At this point, DDD's stock price is so inflated that it is difficult to find rational support for the long term prospects of the business in the financial metrics you choose to discuss. With a PE in excess of 150, DDD has for all practical purposes decoupled from even the most expert & insightful presentation of its financial accounting. Moreover, your idea that the metrics you discuss somehow support the idea that DDD has a superior "Quality of Earnings" is not supported by a clear understanding of accounting principles: DDD has grown largely through M&A and the resulting consolidation of IS/BS is always considered as a factor decreasing the quality of earnings (at least for a period of time). Some accountants will even 'red flag' this type of growth for further review of management efforts to 'program' earnings without regard for the durability of the revenue on which they are based.
    Feb 25 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: At A Short-Term Crossroad [View article]
    I would like your thoughts on how DDD can convert its new found interest in 'consumer' 3D to meaningful recurring revenue (within some reasonable time frame). IMO, DDD is paying a high price for 'growth' in the least promising sector of 3D printing. The quest for consumer revenue from 3D seems ill advised in relation to potential high end industrial applications.
    Feb 24 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The 3D Printing Naysayers For Now [View article]
    Cho, what are you talking about? I find myself alternately frustrated and amused by the total lack of internal logic in your article. You say that we should 'ignore the naysayers' (based on your crystal ball for 2025 ... "a multi decade move that is starting to form") but don't consider ONVO a "viable investment" ... 'presently'? That would mean that the naysayers have a point ... at least "for now". Right? LOL. Why not check back with SA with a less 'spacey' and more useful discussion of specific stocks or a least a discussion of the 3D printing stocks with a more relevant time frame.
    Feb 19 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Organovo Just Hype? [View article]
    Even if all of your assumptions about ONVO's ability to produce a salable 'bioprinted human tissue product' pan out, don't expect it to dominate the preclinical testing market any time soon: First, researchers will require long term tests to vet the transition away from currently accepted preclinical testing methods; second, the TAM for ONVO's 'product' remains unclear and IMO is far less than the goss numbers for the preclinical testing market that are often misrepresented as ONVO's TAM and, third, ONVO would need to develop (and implement) a business model that would allow them to compete profitably with other preclinical testing methods.

    IMO,ONVO is probably years away from generating any meaningful revenue even if they overcome the three challenges mentioned above. I would be interested to hear your opinion on these issues. How have you moved beyond them to maintain your 'bullish' stance?
    Feb 18 04:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
304 Comments
263 Likes