Savient: The Tang Rally Is Over - What's Next [View article]
The restructuring of the debt, which Tang sought an in-juncture to prevent, also occurred on the Q1 Earnings date. This makes it tough to separate in terms of impact. If the earnings were decent, the news about Savient's win preventing the in-juncture would have had more positive impact.
It is more clear when the lawsuit was thrown out. This was a huge catalyst, but the gains were short lived, mostly given back before the earnings call. Real gains came after Q2 sales were released.
Perhaps I am underestimating the impact of Tang with traders - it did impact the stock, but I believe you may be underestimating the impact of other factors with investors.
Savient: The Tang Rally Is Over - What's Next [View article]
I agree to some extent, but think it is noteworthy that very shortly after the Tang lawsuit was announced, Savient posted a Q with $3.1 Million is sales for Krystexxa (previous quarter was $3 Million). Flat growth at that level would be disasterous. I believe that hurt the share more than Tang's case, which was obviously going to fail. The judge tipped that when the initial injunction against the debt restructuring was rejected. I don't think many (if any) of the institutional shareholders thought the case had a chance.
Similarly, news of the lawsuit being thrown out spiked the stock, but it gave most of that up before earnings. When the Q sales for Krystexxa were $4 Million (up 30%), the share began to recover.
I agree that in the long run revenues matter most. I also agree that there may be traders leaving because they think this was mostly about the lawsuit. This is a speculative investment in a company that is not profitable. There are reasons to be optimistic about the long term potential of what is a truly remarkable drug.
Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
Do you have April sales numbers for Krystexxa? I am still unclear on where your monthly number for May comes from. Any clarification or additional info is much appreciated.
Savient: The Tang Rally Is Over - What's Next [View article]
It is more clear when the lawsuit was thrown out. This was a huge catalyst, but the gains were short lived, mostly given back before the earnings call. Real gains came after Q2 sales were released.
Perhaps I am underestimating the impact of Tang with traders - it did impact the stock, but I believe you may be underestimating the impact of other factors with investors.
Thanks for your insights,
Dan
Savient: The Tang Rally Is Over - What's Next [View article]
Similarly, news of the lawsuit being thrown out spiked the stock, but it gave most of that up before earnings. When the Q sales for Krystexxa were $4 Million (up 30%), the share began to recover.
I agree that in the long run revenues matter most. I also agree that there may be traders leaving because they think this was mostly about the lawsuit. This is a speculative investment in a company that is not profitable. There are reasons to be optimistic about the long term potential of what is a truly remarkable drug.
Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]
Thanks!
Watching The Prescription Data For 4 Pharma Companies [View article]