@TexasER

Green Shoots Story Looking a Little Tired

The Fed doesn't want to target any metrics because if they can't hit them, the market could panic that they have no real control.

And the emperor has no close.

Independent Analyst Numbers Far Uglier than Official Stress Test Rumors

If you can't trust a bank's balance sheet, I don't see how you could consider taking an equity position in that bank.

Really any business -- but especially a bank.

Prepare for Another Round of U.S. 'Stimulus' Propaganda

Well that was an angry article. Every paragraph contains "quote marks" and lacks any useful information.

What "facts" are you reporting that other media outlets are not?

Stock Market Now High Enough to Indicate a Recovery

If you believe the equities market is a good predictive tool, then maybe you are on to something. I do not believe this, however.

Those who point to a rally leading every recovery miss the point. The market zigs and zags. A zig or a zag will always precede a recovery.

Don't Be Fooled, We've Been Here Before

It seems to me that the market is irrationally discounting the risk of future shocks. When these occur, there will not be warning.

And with October 2008 fresh in everyone's minds, the rush for the exits could be more dramatic. I'm OK to miss the rally because this market just has too much risk for me.

To the bulls, I say maybe you're right. That maybe is just too big for me.

U.S. GDP: Consumers Are Spending Though Government Isn't

The consumer is wounded and worried, but tired of bad news. The doom and gloom story stopped selling newspapers, so the media stopped reporting it.

The "green shoots" story took root and bad news is out with last week's trash. That's why they are spending, but I would say it's fragile at best.

Another round of shocks in the headlines won't sit too well.

Why the Coming Inflation Is Good

I wouldn't say the coming inflation is good or bad. It is necessary and beside the point, unavoidable.

Kelm is spot-on though. The Fed to date has replaced just enough money to keep the asset bubble collapse from destroying the western world. Good for them.

But wondering when they will stop gives me great pause.

Will China's Economic Model Prevail?

China is the third largest economy in the world. They were also the third largest 100 years ago.

And don't forget the communist government hangs to power by a thread. They blocked YouTube so that anti-government opinions wouldn't spread. They have no problem with 'death-trap' working conditions. They are 50 years behind reasonable environmental standards.

Would you want to live there?

Structural Changes: The Economy, Unemployment and Inflation

Well said, Mr. Mason. I suspect that even the demand-siders at the Fed get it. (well...I hope they get it)

The check they have written today was enough to avoid outright collapse. Let's hope they stop short of Keynes' full vision.

Tsunami of Cash Just Waiting to Be Invested

I will point out here that a flood into equities is not the only outcome. There are headwinds.

Many folks close to retirement will not ever put another dollar back in the stock market. They may take their piles of cash and buy retirement homes in Latin America. Their children may also see what happened and stop contributing to their 401k accounts.

In any case, I doubt seriously that an "impregnable floor" exists.

Home values always go up, right?

My Oil Outlook

Hey! I finally got to see one of Somalia's vulgar posts before it got deleted. It wasn't all that I had hoped.

I really want to get into the oil trade, but like the author, I'm waiting for the sell-off to get back in.

U.S. Economy: 'Less Bad' Doesn't Mean 'Getting Better'

Anyone who thinks the market is a good predictive tool should rethink the S&P chart for the last year.

U.S. Economy Looks Ready to Bounce

Recessions are suppose to be healthy, purifying experiences for the economy. We no longer have time or patience for that, it seems.

Economic models in certain industries become inefficient and eventually unsustainable. Then everyone gets thrown out on the butts (so to speak). Everyone scratches their heads we invent new viable industries.

The current problems we face are the result of whitewashing the last 3 or 4 recessions. Trying to find new ways to refinance the old broken system.

Hopefully the cycle will end here...if not the next one probably won't go so smoothly.

Beware the Ides of May

Optimism abounds these days. Many seem to think the QE strategy is working, and that somehow we will escape the massive hangover.

Too many things still left to unwind over the next year or two. The next round of bailouts is going to spook the horses and inflation expectations will begin to rise.

Improving Financial Conditions

InvestBaboo, it is human nature to make things sound like you WANT them to sound. Works both ways. Like the author's statement, "As this chart suggests, we're likely to see second quarter GDP growth that is only modestly negative."

Modestly negative GDP growth sounds like continued GDP contraction to me.


On May 03 11:14 AM InvestBaboo wrote:

> No controversy here. The old adage "Things are never as bad as they
> seem" applies here. It is human nature to take anything bad and make
> it sound worse.