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  • SunEdison: The Market Has Got The Earnings Wrong [View article]
    I think that's the big problem here. We do not know what's the true SG&A margin is. Can SUNE get 10-15% net income margin after most of the construction built out? That's the risk worth taking assuming management aren't full of crooks.
    Nov 13, 2015. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison: The Market Has Got The Earnings Wrong [View article]
    So correct me if I am wrong. I am trying to understand how to value the DevCO:

    1) SUNE makes money by building solar projects back by warehouse loan (most of these are non-recourse so they are not on the hook if the project does not finish). Then they signed a PPA with the real estate owner. Package and sell the PPAs to investors. Essentially making the spread between the PV of PPAs and the cost of construction + financing?

    2) They expand the balance sheet and backlog by selling projects to third parties and drop-downs. Retained service/maintenance contracts for these projects? They make money by selling these at construction cost + finance + 10-20% margin?

    3) Is the SG&A expense related to construction? What would the strip down SG&A would be after they finished all the constructions?
    Nov 12, 2015. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison Q3 Earnings: The Ugly, The Bad, And The Good [View article]

    Can you confirm the following? The retained MW is only belong to SUNE. I believe SUNE still retained ownership of TERA and GLBL?

    So assume the debt market freeze and all construction halted by the end of 2015. And SUNE has an exit of 2200 MW. At 80% efficiency and .12 / kw, they would bring in 1.85 billions of revenue - at 15% net margin (First Solar), they would bring in $275 mil of net earnings. The problem is their current debt binge. If the market does freeze, can they finish their projects and operate with positive cash flow?
    Nov 11, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 20 Reasons Valeant Is A Buy At Current Levels [View article]
    Valeant openly admit Philidor accounted for 7% of revenue. What you did not account for is the extra scrutiny coming from insurance companies on Valeant/speciality pharmacy prescriptions going forward and how much is Valeant going to get hit. It is too early to assume they only going to lose out on 5-7% of their current operating cash flows since they use a large network of other specialty pharmacies to bill insurance companies. The business model of leveraging to buyout rights to a drug then increase the prices and stripe out R&D might be over.

    We will see what level of cash comes in next quarter. If it's less than $1 billions, they can be in real trouble as Valeant has a good chump of annual interest payment to be made.
    Nov 10, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Mystifies The Bears Again [View article]
    Burning cash because they are spending billions in building GigaFactory. It's not burning if its investing. So what they missed target? Target and estimate is a proxy as long as growth is being met. For example:

    2012 target: X
    2013 target: X + 5000
    2014 target: X + 10000
    2015 target: X + 25000

    So, let just say Tesla missed target by 1000-2000 a year:

    2013 actual: X + 4000
    2014 actual: X + 9000
    2015 actual: X + 23000

    The products demand is still growing - at a slower pace, but it is still growing. So shorting a company that produce a product with twice the gross margin in the industry is suicidal. These bears don't have a solid case using traditional value metrics to value a company in investment phase. Amazon was trading at $40 with the P/E of +70 ages ago - where is it now?
    Nov 5, 2015. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Mystifies The Bears Again [View article]
    Why do people think a capital intensive company in investment phase should have positive GAAP earnings? What is the bears' thesis exactly? That the company is losing cash and money and should be short?
    Nov 4, 2015. 03:33 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NXP Semiconductors: Despite Q4 Weakness, Stock Remains A Strong Buy On Merger Opportunities [View article]
    I think the slower growth in China caught NXP management with their pants off. But on a longer horizon, this company should do well with the current macro trends (NFC enabling payments/ connected-self driving cars). So 5 years down the road, you will look at this 20% drop as a blip on the chart.
    Nov 3, 2015. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Does Intel Inside iPhone Make Any Sense? [View article]
    Would be the first time Intel open up its foundary to custom chip. It's definitely a possibility as Apple would want to diversify its suppliers. Intel x86 in iPhone? Never.
    Nov 2, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: October 14, 2015 Update [View article]
    "1) fewer people are working and have $ to spend and 2) those that have $ are scared to death to spend it because they don't know if their jobs are secure."

    Yea, I'm done with talking to arms-length economist. Please take a macro economic class and get back to the real world. You should move to another city if you are in either of the situations you listed.
    Oct 16, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: October 14, 2015 Update [View article]
    That's your take of the charts which the author might not be in agreement with. Sure the Federal outlays are ballooning, but we need to look at it in relative to GDP. So far, I can see credit expansions (good) without full participation in labor force. But the low participation numbers can be neutral because there might be a structural shift in the economy. M1 is coming down because of low interest rate and people are buying stock as a result and not leaving money in the bank (zero incentive).
    Oct 16, 2015. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: October 14, 2015 Update [View article]
    I think an addendum post explaining why these are concerning would be interesting.
    Oct 15, 2015. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Scary Charts: October 14, 2015 Update [View article]
    Any reasons you pick these set of indicators? And how are they scary?
    Oct 15, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Twitter Cheap Enough At $30? [View article]
    Twitter revenue growth YoY is well over 100% vs Facebook of 37%. Yet your article only compare FB EV/EBITDA to TWTR without factoring that in. And if you use traditional valuation metrics to value growth companies, no one can ever justified Amazon's valuation or Netflix's for the last few years. It very well that both of these companies valuations are in "bubble" territory, but the article did such a crappy jobs of presenting factual arguments and comparison. The bear case to be made for Twitter is when Facebook has x amount of user, they were generating x $ per user and they were only worth x $ market cap. I wish I can vote down articles like this.
    Oct 14, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Twitter Cheap Enough At $30? [View article]
    this is why most editors on seekingalpha dont make money from investment. instead they make money from article views. how short sighted can you be just looking at the current earning and assuming zero growth in 2016? because your ebitda mutliple will come down if there is significant growth, no?
    Oct 13, 2015. 05:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter launches YouTube-like video ad service; shares up 16% on the week (updated) [View news story]
    Your numbers are so framed and misleading. You should compare quarter to quarter or year to year - meaning Q4 this year to Q4 last year.

    20% up move is nothing. This is a $20 billions advertising platform in the process of monetization. If it manages to replace all the old news services and become the news aggregator of choice - it has way more revenue generating potential. Looking at 20% move is short sighted.
    Oct 9, 2015. 01:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment