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traderyin

traderyin
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  • Why Investing In Chesapeake Energy Is Not A Good Idea [View article]
    Guys,

    This is a turnaround story. Not a gamble on LNG export. If APA/APC/EOG can drill domestically - and be profitable - there is no reason why CHK cannot do so under a more prudent management and deploy capital in a more careful way.

    Leveraged up the hill isn't so bad since it lower your cost of capital - as long as you generate enough cash flow to service your debt, high debt does not mean bad capital structure.
    Mar 25 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investing In Chesapeake Energy Is Not A Good Idea [View article]
    What do you mean they haven't posted a profit yet? They are positive for 2013.
    Mar 25 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil may pick east coast over Alberta oil sands for new expansions [View news story]
    Cost isn't the issue. The issue is shale gas can run out. The oil sands can last and you want to throw Canada into the mix so you don't become overly dependent on one energy source. That's common sense.
    Dec 16 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon to put Canadian gas assets up for sale as low prices bite [View news story]
    Natural gas is difficult to transport oversea. All the LNG terminals have to be up before anyone can take advantage of the price diff b/w North America and Asia. Plus NG wells do not deplete like oil does.
    Dec 6 01:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 8.1 Fail: Now, What? [View article]
    seekingalpha pays him for every view.
    Sep 30 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JetBlue: A Stock All Value Investors Should Consider [View article]
    "JBLU still has enough growth stock characteristics that I think it could sell for 12x (assuming a market multiple of 15). So 12x a mid-point of $.85/share estimate gives me roughly a $10/ share target price."

    How do you get from EPS 0.40 in 2012 to EPS of 0.80-0.90? That's doubling the EPS when it only manages ~30 percent growth between 2011-2012. Fuel price as a percentage of revenue has to come down dramatically for this to happen - and looking at their 10k - they haven't been able to contained their fuel expense via hedging.

    The biggest catalyst or upside for JBLU is actually the pending approval of the AMR- US Airway merger. If they manage to reverse the opinions of DOJ - this will take away significant capacity. Which will benefit all domestic airline in general.
    Sep 15 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee: One Of My Favorite Shorts [View article]
    Whitney,

    If GMCR is overspending in cap-ex, doesn't it means a) high depreciation will eventually hit the bottom line - EPS b) if it doesn't depreciation the high priced acquisitions then it will accumulate too much goodwill on its asset side.

    Also it is rather unfair to compare cap-ex % of GMCR to food industry as a whole.

    Not that I think GMCR is a buy here or it is not overvalued - but the arguments you provided is rather weak IMO.
    Sep 15 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly buys natural language startup; more on Jefferies' upgrade [View news story]
    But with Bay Trail, you can design the hardware to run either Android OR Window 8.1 - can't be done with the SnapDragon. That is way more of an advantage than to measure the two chips based on performance per watts.
    Sep 13 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Intel Bulls: You People Are Dead Wrong [View article]
    Awesome job comparing pre-2000 tech bubble market cap vs current market cap.

    Also excellent job ignoring revenue growth and total return to shareholders.

    Just loving the way you use only R&D expense growth to make your point.
    Sep 10 12:09 PM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is Probably Worth More Than The Consensus Estimates [View article]
    The substantial sales gain from the emerging market is what cushioning the blow from the developed market - which is about to change once a cheaper iPhone come out to compete against it. Cashflow can and will turn negative very quickly once they start losing the low end smartphone market.
    Aug 22 02:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New CEO Will Positively Impact Zynga [View article]
    Zynga has no competitive advantage and it is in an industry where there is zero barrier to entry. What make you think the new CEO can outproduce millions of independent mobile game producers? His track record lies in console games which has much higher entry barrier (high franchise cost and production cost relative to mobile gaming).
    Aug 22 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Set To Rule The Future? [View article]
    Then sell. Noone is holding a gun to your head and tell you to hold it.
    Aug 16 08:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid A Sale - 100% Undervalued: BlackBerry's Potential Playbook [View article]
    Why would anyone buy the hardware business for $2-3 billions if you break BES and BBM away from it? There is nothing special about Blackberry hardware design as a standalone and it sure as hell would not sell the current volume without the software technology behind it. And noone is going to pay such sky high valuation for BBM that has not monetized. Wouldn't you rather build another messenger apps for WAY cheaper than $1.7 billions? I am sure whatsapp owner would happily sell for $1 billion. The biggest deal yet for a social media app fetched $1 billion (instagram).

    Potential buyers (if any) are waiting for the condition of the company to get worse before submitting a bid for it. The best case scenario right now is one of the founder paying 25-30% premium on top of today's closing price for it.
    Aug 13 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras Offers A 3.7% Yield And Strong Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Petrobas share performance was due to the fact it has to sell the end product - gasoline at a fixed price, which is controlled by the government. They can generate good profit on their upstream exploration business (think Exxon). But they lose a boatload of money on their refinery business because of price control on gasoline. That's because Brazil is a semi-socialist society. With the recent uprise in Rio, I highly doubt Petrobas can increase gasoline prices where they can operate the refinery business profitably. If you are buying Petrobas here, you are committing on the Brazilian government open up gasoline prices to the free market - a big political risk to bet on IMHO.
    Aug 13 07:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Fertilizer Stocks Really Stink As Bad As The Market Thinks? [View article]
    @dunce

    Put it this way. It would be impossible for the NA producers to compete with the Russians after factored in the transportation cost. The NA producers would much preferred to sell to NA farmers anyway (less transport- higher price- fatter margin). But, as farmer, you would also want to diversify your supplier base - hence Canoptex will likely lose some market share in Asia but not as overblown as the story would have you believe. Afterall, Uralkali only bringing in extra 3m tonnes to the market (if they are in even capable). They are out to screw Belarus (political move) and stop BHP from brining Jensen online (economic).

    The more important takeaway from this story is still the same - is the long term demand for potash likely to grow?

    P.S. I'm very afraid of the current population growth trend- if you look at the world population by numbers in a time-series for the last 50-100 years - its looking like a bubble forming.
    Aug 4 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
62 Comments
110 Likes