Seeking Alpha

Mr. Big

Mr. Big
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Mr. Big's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is Mrs. Watanabe Buying Gold? [View article]
    For a while, I thought Japan may last until 2030 without imploding upon itself, but with Abenomics in full gear, I'd give them until 2020 when their currency collapses and the economy turns to shambles.

    This may just be enough to spark a global depression the likes we've never seen before. I don't blame them for buying gold.
    Mar 31 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Extravaganza Fiddle-Faddle, Up The River Without A Paddle [View article]
    What the Fed has done over the past 6-7 years (nay....since its inception) is nothing short of criminal. The comment above about robbing Peter to pay Paul exactly describes what has happened....or is still happening.....because Peter (Middle Class America) isn't done paying for Paul (America's elitists).

    As you know, the Fed cannot allow rich people to actually lose money....heaven forbid that from happening. But poor people.....well, they're used to being poor, so what's another dollar lost?

    Its so sad for me to see America's middle class (once so strong and free) be dwindled down to what it is today. And to see it happen, not through their own faults, but by the complex and purposeful manipulations of an institution made up of the country's most rich and influential.

    It's time to wake up.
    Mar 31 12:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Balance Sheet Recession About Over [View article]
    Balance sheets are worse than they have ever been. It's all smoke and mirrors. Massive debts merely were transferred from private balance sheets to public balance sheets. Wake up people!

    What's worse is that consumers, banks and corporations actually believe that their balance sheets are healthier and WILL leverage up again. Only this time, the capacity to transfer bad debt to the government (via bailouts and stimulus) is diminished significantly and we would be left with massive debt on BOTH private and public balance sheets.

    It frightens me how the general public (as well as many of the so called experts) believe that the massive buildup of government debt carries no consequence and that their balance sheets are somehow immune to it.
    Sep 5 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Perfectly Fine For The Fed To Stimulate Housing In The Wake of A Housing Crisis [View article]
    I agree with the comments on the impact of demographics.

    Also compound this with the steady erosion in the standard of living. Not so long ago, a household could be supported by one income earner. Then more recently, the average household needed two income earners. Nowadays, three income earners are starting to become a necessity. Over the next decades (starting now), you will find less demand for new housing as each household will retain more income earners to support it.

    All thanks to the Federal Reserve...

    (the hidden costs of printing money..... it aint free you know.....)
    Sep 4 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At Fed's Balance Sheet Unveils A Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for the link. Selling treasuries thru reverse repos is not the same as selling treasuries outright. In fact, it's a completely different instrument. It's a secured loan. The treasury security merely acts as collateral and will do little to impact the supply and demand for treasuries. And it will do absolutely nothing to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet as the transaction merely converts a treasury security to cash, then back to the security again.

    It is, however, a means to reduce liquidity in the markets by taking cash out of the system, temporarily.
    Aug 22 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Close Look At Fed's Balance Sheet Unveils A Cliff [View article]
    The Fed will never sell.... they will let these mature over time. Imagine trillions of UST being dumped into the market....yields will sky-rocket.
    Aug 21 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Bust Has Begun [View article]
    Those who say inflation risk is low are only fooling themselves. Inflation is absolutely there.....it's just not in the US.....it's in China, thanks to the currency peg. Guess what happens to US consumer prices once China starts floating its currency?

    It's a matter of when and not if. And given China's current circumstances, we're not talking years here....

    And I have serious doubts that Bernanke will be 100% capable of controlling prices when this happens....
    Dec 16 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke on '60 Minutes': Pants on Fire [View article]
    Ben shouldn't even be on TV in the first place... One has to question why he felt compelled to speak out like this. Is it politically motivated? What ever happened to Fed neutrality?

    When someone, such as Bernanke, speaks out in a venue like this, it's propaganda. He knows the public is fretting because the truth of QE (and of the Fed) is spreading and in order for him to fulfill his agenda, he must counter with misinformation. Congress is starting to question him and his only weapon against that is a brain washed public.

    It's high time that we kick that man out.....
    Dec 6 03:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Tired of American Economic Leaders Giving Advice to China [View article]
    That's precisely it. The imbalance of trade exists, fundamentally, because we have:

    1) The Chinese government refusing to raise the standard of living of their people to the equilibrium point.

    2) The US government refusing to lower the standard of living of their people to the equilibrium point.


    This resistance on both sides will continue as long as they can....but eventually, natural market forces will take over and the ultimate correction could be quite violent (i.e. collapse of a currency?) if this dragged out too far.
    Dec 6 01:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Tired of American Economic Leaders Giving Advice to China [View article]
    China is practicing its mercantilist policies because it can. It has a massive workforce willing to work for a fraction of an average American worker's salary. China has a population that is willing to accept a lower standard of living than Americans. How can America ever compete? Getting China's currency to float will not change these very basic fundamental facts. China will ALWAYS be the lowest bidder for manufacturing contracts no matter what its FX rate because the Chinese have more capacity to accept less to provide the same.

    The truth is, America has literally priced itself out of the market. It's a combination of wage laws and rising union power and exacerbated by poor fiscal and monetary management that were geared towards pure consumption. The American worker wanted to get paid more money and wanted to spend even more so the government and central bank policies accommodated all that. The danger was that Americans were so centrally focussed that they ignored what was happening outside their borders.

    American labor became far too expensive. Chinese labor.....far too cheap. Throw in policies of freerer trade and breakdown barriers of foreign manufacturing and you have yourself the mass exodus of American manufacturers who set up shop in China.

    With the help of the Fed and the US government, Americans filled the void left by manufacturers by becoming the financial behemoth of the world. No real production..... just pure bid/ask spreads and trading revenues. And with a population burdened with ever increasing debt to fuel its insatiable consumption, the financial system comes under stress with no capital to back stop it.

    So America wants to restore balance of trade in this world? Well, if we truly want it, two things must happen:

    1) China must forego some of its mercantilist policies to dramatically increase its own consumption and standards of living, which will bring its average wages up thereby becoming less competitive......and/or:

    2) America must begin reducing its average wages to be more competitive, but also accept dramatically lower standards of living in doing so.

    Why China would ever voluntarily choose 1) would be beyond me. Act of charity perhaps? So we are left with 2). So the real question is: what is America's capacity and willingness to voluntarily reduce its own standards of living in order to become more competitive in this world?

    If competitive balance is not restored, American dominence will continue to deteriorate with power and influence going to China. Protectionist policies will only be a very short-term solution. Floating the yuan will not fix the structural imbalances in America. The long term fix has to come from within our borders.... we must make America competitive again (not versus ourselves....but versus the world).
    Dec 6 11:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Recovering ... Really? [View article]
    When a non-government entity such as the Federal Reserve is bestowed such enormous powers to tax the People via currency devaluation and/or inflation without the scrutiny or accountability to Congress, what, then, can any legal and non-violent movement ever achieve?

    If there has to be change, we need to remove some of the Fed's powers and make them accountable to the People. It is much too dangerous to allow one man to determine the fates of 300 million, without any oversight. It is simple not acceptable.
    Nov 5 01:56 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Recovering ... Really? [View article]
    The markets are back to irrational exuberance as the Fed, once again, inflate bubbles. Don't we learn from past mistakes? Bernanke's policy response is all wrong. Why do we continue to pump liquidity in the markets? Does he not think there's enough? Corporations and banks are all FLUSHED with cash. Why do they need more? Why does Bernanke continue to believe that this economic crisis is driven by lack of liquidity? It's a solvency problem and it has been since the very beginning.....and unfortunately, it still is.

    Bernanke's policy response is monumentally stupid and will have the potential to take down the economy, along with its currency and the Treasury market. It will squeeze businesses into bankruptcy by ramping up input prices (commodities and raw materials) without the ability to pass the higher costs down to consumers. With the Fed's complete disregard of the currency, the USD's reserve currency status will be under deep scrutiny as the net creditors of the planet panic when they see the value of their reserves cut to pieces. Will they continue to lend to the US government when they know that the Fed is right along side them, artificially propping up prices (i.e. blowing bubbles)?

    We are walking down a very dangerous and irreversible path. I think we would have been better off taking it in the chin with a double dip, but at least we would be able to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and move on. Now, I'm not so sure we would be able to do that if the Fed follows through with its ill-founded policies.
    Nov 5 10:47 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflationary Thursday: Ben Drops the Big One [View article]
    Let's see....government owning citizen properties and lands in addition to banks and other once-private corporations. Might as well rename the Democratic party to the Communistic Party and kiss our freedoms goodbye.
    Nov 4 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Fed's Quantitative Easing Is Overblown This Time [View article]
    I agree with ultraforex. Inflation is already here in the form of higher input prices (ie commodities and raw materials). The only reason why this hasn't translated into higher CPI is because the demand side won't let it. In other words, business margins are getting squeezed. That's why businesses aren't hiring.

    Now with QE2 in place, the dollar will just keep sliding and will result in continued increases in input prices. If businesses can't pass along the higher costs to the consumer (which they won't be able to for a long while), then these businesses will simply go bankrupt.

    Is the the kind of inflation Bernanke wants to stoke? In my opinion, he's focussing on the wrong part of inflation. His policies will do more damage to the economy by putting increased pressure on businesses who will simply react by firing more people or by shutting their doors. QE2 will do nothing to stoke consumer demand. The real issue isn't that commodity prices aren't high enough. It's that consumer demand is not high enough. The Fed should do more to address the consumer side directly.

    This is the problem with Fed (and government) intervention. It creates asymmetrical results and goes against the natural market path to equilibrium. Bubbles form which will eventually require correction. QE2 is simply a bad idea and will put America at significant risk via a weakening dollar.
    Nov 4 10:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Stranguflation' in the U.S. Economy [View article]
    This is only going to get worse as the Fed tries its hardest to debase the USD even further. This will only result in ever higher input costs and if these costs cannot be passed on to the consumer (which appears to be the case), then what we will be left with are businesses closing up shop and higher unemployment. The higher unemployment will exacerbate things even more and reinforce this cycle. Stranguflation is the right word. The US economy is slowly being asphyxiated from the inside, by our own leaders.
    Oct 28 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
390 Comments
1,654 Likes