Airelon Trading

Dollar Bottom?

You Austrians are complete and utter nutjobs. I swear to God. Face facts for crying out loud. Not just the facts you want to look at, or the facts that fit with your preconceived bias.

There will be no return to a gold standard.

There will be no "advent of private gold-backed currencies". Hell, I've never seen anyone ... ever ... for any reason - pay for ANYTHING in Gold - Ever

Central Banking has been around for 400 years. There will be no getting rid of the Fed.

Any thoughts to the contrary - are delusional at the very best.

And this is coming from a guy, who tried out a very small "dollar short" position last week.

I am "unfollowing" anybody that continues to tweet this absolute garbage

If you supposed "austrians" are good for one thing, it's to teach new traders and investors the type of lunacy they'll encounter in the capital markets, and what to steer clear of.

Maybe you could have gotten into that Dollar Long, if you hadn't been so "terrified" as you mentioned from the other post - and actually made some money that you could USE to PURCHASE items.

The Next Leg of the Crisis: Unavoidable Catastrophe

Then what about the 15 year long depression caused in the 19th century, on the gold standard.

History tells TWO sides to every story. Not just one.


On Dec 15 10:02 PM Smarty_Pants wrote:

> Loose translation, if reading between the lines: civilized man is
> in the process of rediscovering gold's function as a stable store
> of value and learning what happens when money's value becomes arbitrary.
>
>
> In a great many instances, the "old ways" are indeed the best.

The Next Leg of the Crisis: Unavoidable Catastrophe

You lost me at: "I am so terrified of what's coming" and the Ludwig Von Mises quote.

I swear to god. I'm so sick of hearing that Von MIses / Ron Paultard crap I could puke. It's like my Native American grandmother used to tell us: Face it. Face facts. We lost. End of story.

As far as your economic overview - you're missing so many facts it's naseauting. You obviously are unaware of the difference between a deflationary trap, and deflation in asset prices. You're obviously unaware of uncovered interest parity on leveraged instruments.

The Chinese are probably the single most intelligent "money" culture on this planet. They've been at it for 4,000 years. Their culture was built on it. Mao was a small blip on that radar.

Why in the name of God would they complain about the U.S. Dollar, and continue to buy in? You may know if you understood the Chinese concepts of lian and mianzi. It's because the Chinese have seen how what's going on right now always ends. They watched it happen to Japan. Anyone with any brains can't get ENOUGH of the U.S. Dollar right now.

You're afraid. And fear is the number one enemy of the of any trader, any investor, and any economist. It sunk Friedman in 1983 with his inane "hyperinflation" fears.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

You'd be surprised at how much more people of intelligence would listen to you - if you stopped using words like "manipulation" and "scam", and you learned the art of simplicity. Say more with less words. Whereas manipulation is a word with real legal connotations that could be investigated? It's been so overused and hyped, it's almost lost all respectability.

I agree with Mark's one comment above ...

"Yes there is speculation and deliberate manipulation in the commodities futures market. But NO, there is no scam here. It's part of market volatility as a result of free market principles at work. Some speculators make money but there are also some speculators lose money at the same time." (As far as all the comments that followed - as soon as they start delving into emotional topics? I just skip them. Who has time to read them all, and heck ... what real trader would want to. I was just forwarded this article by someone that I try to help.)

In fact, ICE (in that horrible third world government - the UNITED KINGDOM (Yeah, that's sarchasm)) was viewed as an alternative because there was a fear that the U.S. would start to try to control the free market. And you can't control the markets, you can't stop them, you can only move them.

Speculation, benefits everyone.

If you want to talk about the leverage restraints that were removed? Fine. If you want to talk about order size or as you put it "Unusually large purchases or sales" - fine.

But come on. Don't phrase things so that you take your readers for 'tin foil hat' conspiracy theorists. "Scam" and "Manipulation" make it seem like nothing more than one of the billion conspiracy articles out there.

I'm a trader. I come to Seeking Alpha, because I read articles that "seek alpha". When it comes to "conspiracy theories" ? I don't know, and I don't care. If I did, then it could affect my emotional bias, which would negatively impact my trading. If I wanted conspiracy theories, I'd go to Zerohedge or Karl Denningers site.

There was a time in the United States, when FREE MARKET trading? Was considered a "noble" and nearly patriotic profession.

Gold Is Still the Opportunity of a Lifetime

You Gold vs Dollar guys are funny

Expecting Hyper-Inflation: Fed Chooses to Monetize America's Debt

Still waiting for that hyperinflation.

LOL

Why Hyperinflation Is Not Coming

Indeed. Great article. I've been one of the ones during this entire crisis stating that we will NEVER see hyperinflation in the United States.

Ever.

I will add one point to the above article, that I believe, reinforces the authors point, under point #3, and it's a point that I believe that many people misunderstand.

All of the "Money Supply" charts are completely and totally out of whack.

It's because of one simple key, that I talked about at: investorandtrader.blog...

Deleveraging? It's not a money supply increase when banks and institutions are given billions. It's deleveraging, which is asset control, and the conversion takes place instantly. It CANNOT come back out into the macro-economic flow. It's gone. It isn't coming back.

But it's reported as a money supply increase.

Which should be, quite frankly - illegal.

Is China the Next Great Bubble?

I'm sorry, but I'm pretty tired of every economic growth spurt being referred to as "a bubble".

A Bubble has reference to the top end of an economic growth spurt, in which speculators are hurt in the end by buying up the top of true economic growth. For example, Oil, in July of 08 was a Bubble. Speculators may have bought it up, but in the end, all of the longs were punished by true economic factors. Thus, the bubble collapsed.

Real economic growth, with true wealth * * * * creation * * * * is not a bubble. It's true economic growth and wealth creation.

It never ceases to amaze me the number of people who wish to discuss economics, and are ignorant to the most basic concepts.

Why the U.S. Prefers Quasi-Nationalization of Big Banks

I'm not a short. In fact, I'm a * * very * * public shareholder of Bank of America.

You're wrong. The author is correct. End of story. The market has the most discipline and control. Not people coming in, telling the banks how they should be run (I was a shareholder BEFORE the acquisition that was done in TWO DAYS) - and then having NO accountability for the consequences.




On Apr 24 07:00 AM ironpants wrote:

> In reality, the gov't wants more discipline and control over banks.
>
>
> Only shorts say the gov't would like to 'nationalize' the banks.
>
>
> Summers, Geithner and others have stated repeatedly that they don't
> want the gov't to try to run (i.e. 'nationalize') the banks.
>
> What's your positions in the aforementioned securities?

Hyperinflation Over-Hyped

I enjoyed the above article.

Dividend DRIP investing is a great way to take advantage of any stagflation we might * might * see. Because as stock prices stay depressed? The shares will be reinvested at lower prices, improving the cost basis in such companies as JNJ and PG. You're basically receiving more shares, for free, at better prices * if * stock prices continue to fall.

If they don't fall, then you make out on the cost basis of the stock itself, and the dividends.

The problem is that Inflationists (Particularly hyperinflationists, since we all know that sooner or later, some inflation will return) just cannot understand that the market doesn't care what they WANT to happen. Reality is a different matter.

Their economic education usually consists of watching YouTube videos and then trying to find data that supports their bias. Rather than simply accepting what the market is saying. They simply CANNOT understand that deleveraging and supposed "liquidity injections" are not an increase in the money supply. They are conversions for asset control. It's one giant margin call, with the taxpayers, paying for the deleverage. The money supply charts are all skewed and wrong, since they do not reflect that REALITY.

And therefore, just as Milton Friedman screamed and hemmed and hawed and was completely epileptic about hyperinflation in 1982 and 1983? They continue to scream that the sky is falling. And just like Friedman? Reality will prove them to be very, very incorrect.

Inflation Fears Overdone?

I enjoyed the above article.

The problem is that Inflationists (Particularly hyperinflationists, since we all know that sooner or later, some inflation will return) just cannot understand that the market doesn't care what they WANT to happen. Reality is a different matter.

Their economic education usually consists of watching YouTube videos and then trying to find data that supports their bias. Rather than simply accepting what the market is saying. They simply CANNOT understand that deleveraging and supposed "liquidity injections" are not an increase in the money supply. They are conversions for asset control. It's one giant margin call, with the taxpayers, paying for the deleverage. The money supply charts are all skewed and wrong, since they do not reflect that REALITY.

And therefore, just as Milton Friedman screamed and hemmed and hawed about hyperinflation in 1982 and 1983? They continue to scream that the sky is falling. And just like Friedman? Reality will prove them to be very, very incorrect.

Expecting Hyper-Inflation: Fed Chooses to Monetize America's Debt

Hyperinflation

: chuckle :

Inflation? Yes, probably. Eventually, someday, inflation will return.

Hyperinflation?

Stilllllll waiting. How many years does a group of people have to be wrong before they admit defeat.

Heheh.

More Investors Are Saying Bye-Bye to Buy and Hold

I've done both for years. Managed my own buy and hold portfolios with a DRIP strategy, and actively traded. Done rather well for myself on the trading route.

I think the biggest damage to buy and hold mentality? Is the rediculous nature and stupidity of 'fairy tale' balance sheets with "Mark to Model" accounting, so that investors can't really understand what a company has. Add that to the problems of not having the lines of credit on the balance sheet of these companies? And God knows what sort of over-leverage mess these corporations can get into.

THAT, is what I think is killing buy and hold more than anything else.

Beware 'Dividend Aristocrats' that Actually Offer Low Yields, No Real Income

It amazes me the author has a thesis to "beware" of a dividend aristocrats in THIS environment, and not once, mentions the ability of dividend aristocrats to safely compound their own returns through DRIP.

And if it's one thing you want in THIS of all environments it's "safe" and "compounding"

Even More Reasons to Worry About Inflation

Try quoting them of what they've said in the last two weeks, rather than 7 years ago.

Your comments, then might be a tad more relevant.

And in the last three weeks, they've stated, repeatedly, that in this environment, they would have no problem raising the rate to combat excessive inflationary expectations. Not even inflation. Just the expectation therein


On Apr 07 09:50 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> Actually it is the deflationists favorite concept - velocity of money-
> that is dead. No economist worth a penny actually believes in that
> concept any more. The Fed has so many ways to get money into our
> economy besides our failed banking system.
>
> Also,do you expect the Fed to actually say that they want roaring
> inflation? That's a bit naive. Maybe you should research some past
> Fed statements.
>
> Here are some direct quotes from Ben Bernacke in 2002:
> #1 - "The US government can also reduce the value of a dollar in
> terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices
> of those goods and services".
> #2 - "We conclude that, under a paper money system, a determined
> government can always generate higher spending and positive inflation".
>
> Right now, I would say that both the government and the Fed are very
> determined to bring us inflation.
>
> On Apr 07 08:40 AM Airelon Trading wrote: