TeresaE

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Seniors have more money?

A handful maybe, or the retired government worker.

But for my dad, who worked from the age of 12 until 69 (when disability overtook ability to stand on his feet for 10 hours a day), he has NO money.

And thanks to government "help," he now spends over 35% of his social security on medicine and insurance.

Could you live on less than $700 a month? Consider his house property taxes come out of that and they are $1500 yearly.

Don't paint everyone with the government pension brush, very few are that lucky.

At least the young can work - many just choose not to.


On Nov 25 06:45 PM Dan in mpls wrote:

> How odd that no one here foresees the possibility that at a not to
> distant time a good sized group of politicians will be replaced.
> At some point the Federal government is going to CUT SPENDING. Can
> you imagine how little it would be noticed if EVERY department of
> government took a 5 percent cut in one year and for several? Federal
> pay alone is a third above what the rest of the nation gets for similar
> jobs. I'm sick to death of seeing senior citizen discounts one everything
> when they have more money than most of us. The point is, there is
> so much slop in the bloated, State and Federal budgets that mega
> billions couldn't be cut without doing much damage to nation. I don't
> recall even one dead child found in the streets for the million starving
> children we were promised with welfare reform. This will get messy
> but we will go on though the press will have a field day telling
> us how terrible life is.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Our country is not filled with the same people that used to inhabit it.

Our "new" (aka "modern") citizens think a 32oz Big Gulp is a small drink, $100 cell phone plans are "cheap" and buying processed foods are the only way to feed at home.

My grandparents generation, and their lessons on life, are gone. Long gone.

Come visit Detroit, Chicago or any other urban center. Now realize there is less than THREE days food available to the masses at anytime.

Care to surmise how people who have never worked a day in their life will behave when the stores run out and food stamps don't come?


On Nov 24 04:18 PM bob adamson wrote:

> Wow! I’ve found where the survivalist wing of the perma-bear cult
> spends their spare time while not checking the catalogs for crossbow
> accessories.
>
> Admittedly the foregoing is too harsh and doesn’t show due regard
> for either the seriousness of the economic problems the US and global
> economies currently face or for the legitimate fear and frustration
> being felt. As a foreign observer of the US scene, however, I find
> it regrettable that I appear to have more faith than some US citizens
> in the capacity of the US and its people to work together to find
> a way forward through the current difficulties. This was done during
> the Depression and WW II and other past crises and there is no reason
> to think it can’t be done now. Other countries, think of the UK in
> WW II, have come through darker crises as well.
>
> This is not the time to run for the hills.

Mini Thanksgiving Meltdown

Not "all," not me. Hate shopping, hate crowds and understand all too well the bait & switch used by retail to suck your pocket dry.

As for everyone else, from news video I see a ton of people (all told they have to "buy now" or risk "shortages") but few packages.

And I, for one, won't be buying "more things" with lower dollars, I finally convinced my family that our kids have more than they can ever use and that our Christmas is utterly ridiculous. Couple this with the "help" Congress gave seniors (and over 30% of income going to medical expenses) my dad, for the first time ever, can't afford to buy for his grandkids.

This country has its priorities upside down. Asian made junk does not equate to love. At least for my family.


On Nov 27 09:53 AM PERSONAL JESUS wrote:

> On November 27 (today), 2009 all of America will run to buy gifts
> for Christmas, this is already presented like a Gold Rush and shoppers
> are urged not to miss a thing on sale.
> Analysts are pushing sales estimates Sky High and accordingly Wall
> Street trading desks are buying, buying, buying.
> And all this markets buying in centered around one thing, which is
> YOU the shopper.
> I don't urge you not to buy, all I want to say is that whatever you
> will buy, it will be more things than last year but worth less money.
>
> When numbers will be revised, the selling panic will follow and you
> will have much less money and much more debt on January 1, 2010.
>
> Whatever will happen this shopping season, know one thing: DJIA will
> never break 11000 level, so if you are long stocks and I know you
> are long because you hold it since 2008, the maximum the market will
> go up is 6-8%, to the downside it will go below 6800 on the DJIA.
>
> Think if this risk/reward is right for your future.
> blackfridaysale.notlon...
>
>
> It was first posted before Dubai Rock'N'Rolla hitted.

U.S. Economic Recovery and the Housing Sector Mirage

Personal income INCLUDES health insurance. Here is an real world example of "increases" in pay.

My employee pays 20% of her health insurance through a weekly deduction. Last year the plan increased 22% and her 20% was passed on to her.

Her net check shrunk by $5 a week, but her "income" according to US government stats went way up.

This year I got to pass on a 30% increase, again, no raises so her takehome pay drops and her "income" according to Washington went up.

Personal income for us not in government, UAW or Wall Street has fallen off a cliff this year. Yet miracuously the stats show it going up.

As for the bogus non-inflation - it is totally contingent on what you are buying. Local goods are way down in price as companies struggle to keep it open. Everything else (socks, shoes, diapers, band-aids, frozen foods, boxed cereal) is up around 20% yoy, but most of the increases came via reduced package sizes - so no one has noticed.

The fact that the government can say (with a straight face) that income is rising when nearly everyone is taking paycuts, losing jobs or customers is outrageous.


On Nov 24 02:49 PM Annualgain wrote:

> "During the Great Depression it would have been plausible for the
> economy to “recover” even if employment, housing and consumer spending
> were all still in decline (as they are in the United States, today).
> However, the current U.S. economy is built entirely atop a housing-bubble,
> and a level of consumption which can only be maintained by ever-increasing
> consumer debt."
>
> Mr. Nielsen:
> The last time I commented on one of your articles, you responded
> and I think the tone between us became contentious. That is not my
> intention here, I really just want to learn from you and others.
> So here's my comment:
>
> How is the recent housing bubble so different from the credit bubble
> that brought on the great depression? Whether the borrowing was backed
> by houses or stocks, when the assets declined in value, all the loans
> were under water. Right?
>
> Now, here's where I think you and I might really differ in our views,
> i.e. the consumer debt vs. spending balance. Not only is consumer
> revolving debt down recently, total consumer borrowings are down
> in aggregate. At the same time consumer spending is increasing, albeit
> at an anemic rate.
>
> How can consumers pay down debt and increase spending at the same
> time? Well, despite the fact that the U.S. has more unemployment,
> personal income is increasing in aggregate. The reason we are going
> to have very very muted recovery in the U.S. is that consumers are
> putting some their income increase towards spending and some towards
> debt reduction.
> Consumer Loans: research.stlouisfed.or...
>
> Personal Income: research.stlouisfed.or...
>
> Personal Consumption Expenditures: research.stlouisfed.or...
>
>
> I don't disagree with the housing stats you provide in your article.
> I guess I just disagree with the interpretation.
>
> AG

Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey, November 2009: Slight Uptick in Manufacturing Activity

What amazes me the most about manufacturing surveys is the complete disconnect between the reality in the industry this decade, and the reported numbers.

It does make sense when you view the reports through glasses of truth, closed companies don't complete surveys.

I love how "future employment" is breaking above orders & prices.

"We have no sales, we have nothing in the pipeline, but heck now that you asked, sure we are going to hire next year."

BS in equals BS out.

GDP Misses by 20%

What's 20% of GDP (we won't even look at the non-stated inflation), or what's nearly 1 million undercounted unemployment?

To the government, it is job well done.

To my employees? It would mean pink slips.

The new normal, got to love it.

Spend and Borrow: Economists Are Wrong Again

Did deficit spending pay (off) the unions, a handfull of companies, and banking to the tune of billions in "job well done" bonuses?

And, you do realize it took nearly 2 decades, and a world war, to "come out" of the depression with a return of asset values and stocks, don't you?


On Nov 23 10:58 AM John Kramer wrote:

> Krugman (Nobel prize winner in economics) and Baker were among the
> first to recognize the housing bubble (and thus the entire premise
> of your article is "bunk" as you might say). Deficit spending is
> what brought us out of the Great Depression. And it's been keeping
> us out of a second Great Depression today.
>
> Readers, read stuff worth reading:
> krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
> www.cepr.net/index.php.../
>
> (And they are actually economists. I think I'll keep listening to
> them, thank you.)

Spend and Borrow: Economists Are Wrong Again

Many of our economy have already discovered the wonders of black market employment.

Else explain how women on welfare can pay for hair cuts, diapers, fake nails and boyfriends when they get zero cash, just free rent, utilities and food stamps that will not buy toiler paper.

Now with unemployment, and underemployment, the barter system is making a comeback along with cash only deals.

Welcome to tax the "rich" where the working poor have to break the law to keep a roof over their kids heads.


On Nov 23 01:44 AM Old Trader wrote:

> Chris,
>
> Cheer up!!! From what I've seen, bartending CAN be a profitable,
> as well as a "fun" gig, (although all of my experience stems from
> the "other" side of the bar). Additionally, there are all of those
> cash "tips" to weigh into the equation, given the likelihood of increasing
> tax rates.

Sub-Prime Mortgages: Canada's Dirty Little Secret

Sounds like Canada looked at what the US went through and then decided it would be a great idea to create a bubble of their own.

Since such a large chunk of the Canadian economy is contingent on American consumers, you have to wonder at the thinking behind this decision.

Is the world being run by a Confederacy of Dunces, or are we all being driven to collapse on purpose?

Good luck Canada, you are going to need it.

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Now for the $64,000 question:

How much of this "exporting" is nothing more than sending pieces to China for them to do final assembly and ship back to us? (a lot)

How much is assembled here with CHINESE parts? (a lot)

These numbers are so bogus. Unless you live in manufacturing and see the truth, you have no idea how far corrupted our "export" and GDP has become.


On Nov 21 05:34 AM drbob66 wrote:

> "For now, besides military weaponry, our number one export is entertainment
> (DIS)."
>
> Actually, according to the U.S. Trade Commission's "U.S. International
> Trade in Goods and Services Release (FT900)," the most recent YTD
> statistics (as of Sept 2009) show that "Capital Goods, except Automotive"
> tops the list of exported goods at $287.3B...the largest of which
> is "Semiconductors" ($26.7B), followed closely by "Civilian aircraft"
> ($26B), "Industrial Machines, other" ($21.7B) and "Telecommunication
> equipment" ($21.4B). "Medical Equipment" comes in forth place at
> $20.1B.
>
> "Automotive vehicles, parts and engines" has its own category and
> - somewhat surprisingly - totals a whopping $55.8B so far this year.
>
>
> The second largest exported goods category is "Industrial supplies
> and Materials," the YTD total of which is $213B...and the biggest
> in this category is "Plastic Materials" ($18.2B...remember "The Graduate"?),
> followed closely by "Chemicals-Organic" ($17.6B) and "Fuel Oil" ($17.5B)
>
>
> The third largest category is ,"Consumer Goods," with exports totaling
> $110B ytd...the largest (by far) of which is "Pharmaceutical preparations"
> ($34.4B), with "other Household Goods" a distant second at just under
> $13B.
>
> Finally, the fourth largest "Capital Goods" category is "Foods, Feed
> and Beverages" at $68.4B ytd as of Sept 2009. The top spot here is
> taken by "Soybeans" ($11B), followed by "Meat, Poultry, etc." ($9.1B)
> and (you guessed it ) "Corn" ($7.8B).
>
> [as a sidenote..."Hair and waste materials" exports totaled $350M
> ytd and are listed under "Industrial supplies and Materials." Not
> sure what this is all about...but it's probably good that we're exporting
> them]
>
> Anyways, these are the major categories of "Goods" exports for Jan-Sept
> 2009, and can easily be found by searching the internet for "U.S.
> Exports 2009"...or just go to www.census.gov/foreign.../
>
> Of course, there is the other major category of exports...that is,
> "Services." I don't have the data for 2009 offhand, but I did very
> easily find (search "U S Export Factsheet 2008") that LAST YEAR the
> total U.S. exports of good and services amounted to $1.84T...of which
> $551.6B (30%) was "Services" [the largest categories of which were
> "business, professional and technical services,insurance services,
> and financial services" ($241B), "travel" ($111.5B), "royalties and
> license fees" ($91.1B) and "other transportation" ($60.2B).
>
> I assume that we'll probably export roughly the same % amount of
> "Services" this year as last (although possibly much less "financial
> services," if the rest of the world learned anything in the past
> year or so). Obviously, "Services" comprise a significant portion
> of our total international exports yoy, and I expect it will continue
> to do so for the foreseeable future.
>
> Still, it should be clear from the data that the U.S. exports much
> more than "military weaponry...and entertainment," as the author
> suggests. I don't have the actual figures for "military weaponry"
> or "entertainment" for 2009 (or even 2008)...but I highly doubt that
> they would come in at No. 1 and No. 2 on the list. If anyone has
> data to the contrary, I would be interested in examining the numbers.

Why Charles Hugh Smith Doesn't Believe the Recession Is Over

I really wished I believed this.

But Michigan was desperate 4 years ago.

And yet, we continue to elect the same thieves into office and we continue to "hope" and we continue to watch things go away for ever.

No awakening, no movement, no change, just more of the same.

Most of us give our fellow citizens too much credit. Humans will normally choose the easiest path. For now that seems to be more debt, less work, more entertainment and more foodstamps.


On Nov 18 11:57 AM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Where ever one looks . Where ever one goes. What ever one reads.
> The truth is right in front of you. Just dig a little at the surface
> to remove the thin veneer and you expose an under current of quiet
> desperation bordering upon panic. The silent mass will remain so
> for just so long. When push comes to shove - there will be a reckoning.
> There is no recovery. There is only ongoing misery that is slowly
> getting worse. Hunger is starting to make inroads on Main Street.
> When you have people lining up at mid-night outside Wal-Mart, at
> the end of the month, waiting for their funds to clear so they can
> buy food - there will be a reckoning.

Bounce, Crackle and Pop: Seven U.S. Metro Housing Markets Fall Below March Lows

With the GOVERNMENT U6 statistic already showing 17% (which means that 17% of those that had jobs not too long ago, and that should still be looking because they have not retired or become permanently disabled) is this really a shock to anyone?

Or do we really think people living on food stamps, disability or the black market (now that liar loans are gone) are going to be out buying houses?

Oh, yeah, we do.

Bounce, Crackle and Pop: Seven U.S. Metro Housing Markets Fall Below March Lows

Well those same headlines were still telling us that housing is guaranteed to keep going up in 2006 too.

As did the NAR, who has the biggest rose-colored-glasses wearer in the entire world as their financial analyst.


On Nov 18 01:34 AM chris coonan wrote:

> Headlines would have you believe that housing is a great investment
> right now! Reality is something much different.
>
> It will get a lot worse, before it gets better. I wish it were different
> for America, and myself.

State Budgets Spiraling out of Control

In my Michigan city house values went from averaging $50 a square foot to close to $145 sq foot in less than 6 years.

Our taxes were not "cut" one red cent and if not for the Bush middle class and business owner tax cuts Michigan would already be defunct.

We are one of the highest taxed countries on earth yet we continue this ridiculous argument about taxing more.

More tax NEVER equates to government fiscal stability, it just leads to MORE government which then digs our hole deeper. See ALL the states in the above chart for proof of that.

My business and I have paid more in taxes the past 3 years then I have personally been able to take in wages and rent, let alone that distant memory called "profits." Property taxes on my shoddy little home and falling apart factory continue to increase even though I couldn't sell either for the "state equalized value" (taxable value, supposed to be 1/2 of market or price paid - it isn't), nor could I five years ago before the rest of you realized the country was in trouble.

As to Detroit, it has been 100% run by Democrats for over 40 years, and it has both the highest property taxes and highest income tax in the entire state. Unless you live here and feel lucky, I doubt you ever driven in 80% of Detroit and seen reality.

Huge government, uncompromising unions, no work-high pay, blight, ruin, crime, and corruption are the direct result of increased taxes.

Go ahead and try it in your state and our country, I'm sure this time things will magically turn out differently.

Insanity: continuing to do the same things over and over and expecting the results to change.


On Nov 17 12:39 PM fletchjr wrote:

> Taxes can not be raised in this environment. Even most Dems in DC
> know this. At the local level they are still going up some but this
> is a death spiral resulting in every city becoming Detroit.
> No pol is willing to cut spending and all want to cut taxes. That
> formula for getting re-elected has worked since Reagan. Cutting taxes
> without cutting spending has brought us these massive deficits.

A Look at George Soros's Recent Trades

Since nearly 100% of the Walmart/Sam's Clubs brands (Equate, Best Value) are 100% made in China, of course they are expanding there.

In 2005, Walmart's purchases accounted for 8% of China's (stated) GDP.

In 1992, over 80% of the products in their stores were from American manufacturers.

My how times changes. Yet our wages stay the same.

Correlation? Nah.

On Nov 20 08:41 AM buoy wrote:

> Walmart already has about 150 sams clubs in China. You can see just
> see the direction of that.