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  • Dendreon's Provenge: Under Attack Once Again [View article]
    Here are Provenge sales since FDA approval on April , 2010:
    Q2/10: $2.8 Million (30 dying men treated)
    Q3/10: $20.2 Million (215)
    Q4/10: $25 Million (269)
    2010 Total: $48 Million (514 total men treated)

    Q1/11: $28 Million (301 dying men treated)
    Q2/11: $49.6 Million (533)
    Q3/11: $64.3 Million (691)
    Q4/11: $77 Million (828)
    2011 Total: $220 Million (2366 total men treated)

    Q1/12: $82 Million (882)
    Q2/12: $80 Million (861)

    Realize that $100 million or 1076 men treated is Dndn's breakeven target. The company is close to profitability and every institutional hedgefund knows this. THEY WANT ALL 154 MILLION SHARES BECAUSE DNDN WON'T DO ANOTHER SECONDARY!

    Manipulative hedgefund short interest has increased from 31 million to 46 million over the last 7 months (A 15 million increase). That equates to 1.7 million shares shorted each month over the last 7 months:
    Expect the short interest to continue to climb higher from 46 million too!
    Hedgefunds want your shares and are creating the illusion of competition driving down Provenge sales (expect Q3 to be like Q2) or doctors not prescribing, while short driving down the stock price.
    Remember, the impatient, novice investor/trader plays the investing game in terms of days, weeks, or months.
    Greedy Institutional hedgefunds play the game by quarters & years so don't don't let them wear you out.
    Don't expect anything this year!
    Expect somoe nice surprises in Q1 or Q2, 2013 and hold on till Dec, 2013 because 61% of institutional holders are... ;o)
    Oct 15, 2012. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dendreon Stop The Medivation Invasion? [View article]
    Thanks Miche,
    Much of what I write is fact/statistic-based with a sprinkle of speculation. But in the world of Wallstreet, managing expectations, and negotiations...things are often not what they apprear to be (as with DNDN).
    Because greedy wallstreet is so prone to ponzi schemes, insider trading, high frequencey trading; etc... executing the "short to distort tactic" on DNDN over several quarters is Wallstreet being nice!
    Remember, the 30+ analysts now following DNDN have their large institutional clients interests at heart. Oh, ever ask yourself why analyst coverage has increased significantly in this so-called losing story of a biotech...lmao?

    Since CEO Johnson won't do another secondary offering for them, he can at least work with them and manage expectations by underpromising during 2012 and over-deliver by mid- 2013 while wallstreet hedgefunds/institutions short the stock (supporting the CEO's uncertainty/no guidance; layoffs, NJ plant closing, etc) and scare off the weak or uninformed average investor over time, WHILE THEY ACCUMULATE!
    The majority always believe what they read about companies in wallstreet or mainstream articles versus actually listening in on a company's conference call or doing their own research.
    Regarding biomarkers, ask Ted. He is the resident expert!
    Regarding stock price at Dec, 2013.. I say $10-$15 (a pure double from these levels; so $1 million becomes $2 million). From then on the stock is upward bound unless institutional shorts decide to short millions again because they don't own enough of the 154 million outstanding shares.
    Regarding treating early stage pc patients... that's years away.
    Regarding iii, I don't have a clue.
    Lots of luck chief!

    Oct 3, 2012. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dendreon Stop The Medivation Invasion? [View article]
    And everyone...
    Please share the pending growth story about DNDN with EVERYONE YOU KNOW!
    With former urologist Dr. Gold, his primary focus was treating the thousands of men dying from prostate cancer. He obviously lacked leadership skills, commercial skills, and building relationship skills with Wallstreet!
    With CEO Johnson at the helm, his focus will be more balanced. The fact Johnson is underpromising this year by barely missing analyst targets (which I expect to happen for Q3 too)... tells me he's leaning towards the big business & catering more to his Top 10 Institutional Shareholders and his 30+ bank & boutique firm analysts that follow the company (
    DNDN is on the precipice of becoming a quarter over quarter growth story beginning next year!
    Tell EVERYONE, but as always, do you DD and only invest what you can afford to lose!
    Oct 3, 2012. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Dendreon Stop The Medivation Invasion? [View article]
    Catchy title to your article chief!!
    But ethical oncologists/urologists will sequence the available therapy regimens to prolong the dying patients life to the MAX!
    One thing we need to illuminate regarding DNDN is the short interest in this stock.
    Our familiar short definition: The terms shorting and going short is an investment strategy that allows a speculator to gain from the decline in price of a security! Everyone is familiar with that definition, yes?

    What the average investor/citizen doesn't understand is shorting is an institutional tactic where they can short millions of shares and drive the stockprice downward slowly over time to support their FUD campaign (negative articles) on promising companies. It's a tactic used to acquire cheap shares slowly over time. And I mean slowly as we can't look at institutional holdings of dndn until 45 days after a quarter closes (Nov 15, Feb 15, May 15, and Aug 15).

    In DNDN's case, short interest since March 1st of this year has steadily climbed from 31million to 43 million.
    That's a full 12 million increase of shares short over a 7 month period!
    Only mega-wealthy institutions/hedgefunds have that kind of fiscal capability to pull of this short campaign.
    This mega-rich hedgefund tactic is called "Short to Distort". A method of accumlating shares over time because a certain CEO doesn't need to do another secondary offering and dilute current shareholders ;o)
    That's why you should be excited about dndn NEXT YEAR!
    Because our sales/commercial CEO Johnson (friend of Carl Icahn appointed by him to lead ImClone) is now working with these 30+ boutique firms & bank analysts and top 10 instititional holders of dndn, he is executing the philosophy of "Underpromise this year and Overdeliver on results next year!
    Wallstreet finally has their man in CEO Johnson versus former Dr. Gold!

    Expect Q3 results to be mediocre (like Q2) and the massive shorting to continue to SUPPORT the fear campaign surrounding dndn (NJ plant closing, restructuring, layoffs, growing threatening competition, etc).
    Expect the stock price to touch $3.99!

    Sometime next year (maybe next April 30th when Q1 results are reported; just 7 months away), CEO Johnson will then overdeliver and surprise by blowing through the breakeven patient mark of 1076 patients (equals $100 million in revenue).
    DNDN is currently treating only 860 patients per quarter ($80 million) and we all know how large the mCRPC market is by now ;o)

    Sorry, but this year is just about dndn restructuring, underpromising on results and barely missing the manipulated high analyst estimates, offering lots of shares to new hires and end of the year stock incentives to officers/directors, etc... Oh, and talking about the competition from MDV3100 too.
    The beginning growth story of DNDN's Provenge becoming the next Celgene (CELG) back when they launched their blockbuster drug Revlimid....begins next year; Sorry!
    Hold Long & Strong!
    Oct 3, 2012. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon's Provenge: More Evidence Of A Greater Life Extension Survival Benefit [View article]
    Bravo Ted!
    The Oncologists (3000+) and Urologists (5000+) in the U.S. are/will being informed as manufacturing/commercial ramping continues over time as to the effectiveness of Provenge. I'll add some additional FACTS that wallstreet & mainstream articles refuse to focus on:
    Here are quarterly sales revenue since Provenge launch upon FDA approval back in April, 2010.
    Q2/10: $2.8MM (30 dying men treated with Provenge)*
    Q3/10: $20.2MM (215)*
    Q4/10: $25MM (269)*
    Total 2010 Revenue: $48MM (514)*

    Q1/11: $28MM (301)*
    Q2/11: $49.6MM (533)*
    Q3/11: $64.3MM (691)*
    Q4/11: $77MM (828)*
    Total 2011 Revenue: $219MM (2353)*

    Q1/12: $82MM (882)*
    Q2/12: $80MM (861)*
    Q3/12: TBD
    Q4/12: TBD
    Total 2012 Revenue Pace: $322MM (3464)

    So here is year over year sales growth since FDA approval:
    2010: 48 million in sales rev
    2011: 219 million in sales rev
    2012: 322 million in sales rev
    Some kinda sales growth huh..? Even when DNDN had to deal with the Medicare CMS reimbursement political process from June 2010 to June 2011 ;o)

    More facts from the American Cancer Society:
    *1-2 million men have prostate cancer (pc) in the U.S.
    *271,740 men will be/have been diagnosed with pc this year.
    *6% or about 60,000 men from the 1-2 million man pool are living with mCRPC (Provenge label). Mark Frolich just said in an article today that the number is 60-80,000 men. I will use the lower figure going forward. I always believed it was 100,000 men still living with mCRPC in the U.S. Robin Karnuskas from Deutsche once said 70,000 men in an article. (
    *30-35,000 men are "newly diagnosed throughout a year" with mCRPC from the 1-2 million man pool (Provenge label).
    *30,000 men die each year from pc.
    *The baby boomer influx over the next 2-8 years only sustains or increases these numbers.
    *The European population of men with PC is similar to the U.S (EU approval of Provenge is up 4 decision next Summer, 2013).

    When dndn makes the small move of treating 860 men per quarter to 1076 men per quarter they hit breakeven revenue of 100million.
    Treating 1076 men per quarter or a yearly rate of 4,304 men BARELY makes a dent in the treatment population of 30,000 men newly diagnosed with mCRPC throughout a year.
    And we're not including the 60,000 population of dying men currently living with mCRPC disease!

    Wallstreet hedgefunds/institutions realizes the enormous market size and wants all 154 million outstanding shares for themselves. Their greedy tactic is to spread and surround DNDN in FUD (fear, uncertainty, & doubt). Every article threatens growing competition will drive Provenge sales downward. We know, however, that ethical doctors will "sequence" the availabe therapies to prolong the dying mans life to the MAX!
    Every article talks about plant closings and layoffs; But we know that DNDN has 2 other, brand new, 155,000 square foot mfg facilities in CA and GA. Each facility has 36 hoods each and can support up $1B in Provenge and $2B with automation.
    Wallstreet has been steadily shorting shares to support this FUD since March 1st of this year to today (short interest has steadily climbed from 31 million to 43 million respectively). They have not covered either which indicates the shorting is simply price manipulation over time. The BULL RAID the other day from the Aetna news collected shares and then shorting has continued to incur losses for those that had auto-buys established.
    Institutional interest remains at 61% or 94 million shares out of 154 million as of 6/30/2012. Next institutional holdings release date is November 15 for Q3.

    In ending,
    Expect the depressed share price to remain the rest of 2012 because CEO Johnson won't do another secondary. Greedy institutions will continue to "short to distort" to accumulate shares from the weak retail holders.
    The depressed stock price also helps CEO Johnson (former IMclone CEO appointed by corporate raider Carl Icahn who sold IMclone to Eli Lilly for $6.5B back in Oct, 2008) to offer valuable equity/stock incentives to new hires as dndn goes through restructuring and also end of the year stock rewards to his directors & other officers.
    Since coming into office back in Feb, CEO Johnson has established his underpromise this year to overdeliver next year strategy to a tee. This is in the interests of the TOP 10-20 Institutional shareholders/hedge-fund analysts.
    CEO Johnson will overdeliver or announces his breakeven revenue surprise or bust through breakeven revenue surprise (>$100 million) during Q1 or Q2/2013 (along w/ reduced cogs) on April 30th or July 30th respectively.
    The EU decision is expected by in June/July timeframe and DNDN becomes a growth story like Celgene back when they launched Revlimid from that point onward.
    In the mean time, expect near-term Q3 results reported on October 30th to be mediocre like Q2. The stock price to touch $3.99 as institutional shorts short even more and any weak retail or small tutes sell their shares as a result of the major hedgie "short to distort shananigans" continue.
    Oct 2, 2012. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dark Horizons For Dendreon [View article]
    Got on some fools recently about DNDN
    I know, I know... shame on me!
    Sep 19, 2012. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Is Way Undervalued [View article]
    Got on some fools recently about DNDN
    I know, I know... shame on me!
    Sep 19, 2012. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon Is Way Undervalued [View article]
    Hi Saul,
    Hope you're well!
    Nothing has changed with regard to DNDN's value. Your articles have always been dead on regarding market size & potential!
    Unfortunately, DNDN is in the hands of mega wealthy institutions/bankds/he... who can manipulate the share price as they see fit. These large tutes, I like to call them, can control the pps with their financial wherewithal (ranging anywhere from $100B to over $1T) just like strings on a puppet!
    The good news is we have a new CEO that relates better to these wallstreet entities. Recall that JohnJohnson sold Imclone to Eli Lilly back in 2008 for $6.5B and Johnson has connections throughout big pharma and even knows the likes of corporate raiders like Carl Icahn. Remember when Icahn appointed JohnJohnson back just 5 years ago (
    This ever-slowly descending stock price over time is large tutes and connected media writers last push to squeeze out final weak retail investors before Provenge sales take off mid-next year (like Celegene back in the early Revlimid days).
    From your numbers, 100,000 have mCRPC and 30,000 (or 7500/Quarter) are newly diagnosed throughout each year.
    DNDN is treating about 900 men per quarter ($83MM).
    A small move from 900/Qtr to 1076/Qtr puts them at breakeven of $100MM. This paltry 1076 men treated each quarter barely impacts the 7500 diagnosed. The market size of mCRPC is really staggering and wallstreet knows this and wants all 154MM outstanding shares for themselves (especially since DNDN WILL NOT DO ANOTHER SECONDARY).
    Don't expect much in Q3 and maybe even Q4 Saul.
    The fun definitely begins when Q1/2013 results are reported on April 30th/May1st and CEO Johnson surprises (over-delivers).
    I believe we get our future guidance by then and maybe our EU approval too.
    All is good with DNDN by year end 2013 (just 15 months away ;o)
    Sep 18, 2012. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    Oops, made a faux paux..
    We get a peek at institutional accumulation of dndn on Nov 15th
    Cheers everyone
    Sep 15, 2012. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    You still here Dr.?
    You're smart to remain long dndn another day.

    Responding to your 1st paragraph...yes, all I can afford is McD's, but I actually decided on Subway. Their 6" clubs are delicious! Topped it off with some Doritos & a tea and I was in heaven dude. I'll probably sequence in McD's salad for lunch today, followed by Taco Hell late tonight (after drinking some frothy brews), and then a KFC grilled chicken sandwich on Sunday. Not that I need to sequence it that way..but hey!
    And I know, I know already..., doing Taco Hell tonight will bring with it some nasty side effects, but I can take it Doc... I can take it!

    Regarding your 2nd paragraph, I agree with you to a point.
    Q3 results reported Nov 1st will be mediocre to ugly again. They miss consensus, the stock falls & touches $3, but closes at $4 even, and a final round of wallstreet analyst articles spreading FUD about dndn are published..., shaking & squeezing out the last bit of weak retail, while the bigboys accumulate. If retail holds, institutions will short to drop the price to touch $3 and hold at $4 even while they accumulate. Too bad we cant peek at institutional accumulation during that timeframe until Feb 15th (45 days after a quarter closes). Butt dont sell your shares Doc because the turning point happens when Q4 results are reported Feb1st (or in Jan during the JPM Healthcare Conference; DnDn likes to release surprises during that kickoff the new year conference).
    A simple little move from treating 900men/qtr ($83MM) to 1076men/Qtr ($100MM) is doable, but I think they come in at treating 1021 men ($95MM). That number will spark some serious interest because dndn would be just $5MM away from breakeven. Of course their cogs might improve by then, but we won't talk about that right now.
    Anyway, dndn then surprises big reporting Q1/2013 results on May1st. Can't wait until MAY 1st! Hope Hope you are still around :-)

    Btw, if you're going to learn something from my posts, make sure it's correct. To indicate "millions", use two m's, not one (eg: $50MM). I used one M in my previous posts to see if you're paying attention...and judging by how you express millions in you posts, you were. Good job!

    My forecast for Q3 is $83MM and dndn misses consensus estimates badly of $90MM. The negative soapbox floor will be all yours then too. Hopefully not Sabina's tho.
    GL Dr Ted Wheaton!
    Its SATURDAY.. Woohoo!
    Sep 15, 2012. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    Okay Dr. Wheaton,
    Sell dndn and say Buh Bye then!

    In the mean time... Hmmm, not sure what I'll have for lunch today;
    Taco Bell (Zytiga), McD's (Provenge) or KFC (MDV3100).
    I just can't decide!
    Thank god it's not a question or choice of extending my overall survial Or I'd want to eat at all 3 restaurants; one right after the other..Yeeesh!

    Remain long dndn doc ;o)
    Sep 14, 2012. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    Hey Dendreonites (including those pretending to be short or those pretending to hate the company, but are heavily invested... Please read the following and smile.

    Ignore wallstreet analyst articles that surround DNDN in fear, uncertainty, & doubt.
    Ignore the revenue/debt or so called balance sheet numbers because wallstreet analysts want you to focus here.
    Ignore the silly lawsuit, because it will be settled by DNDN (if it even gets anywhere) (just like how big pharma settles lawsuits with their insurance or enormous cash coffers).
    Ignore the plant closing/layoffs. Profitable companies do this all the time! The 2 other, high tech, 155,000 square foot facilities in Seal Beach, CA and Atlanta GA can more than handle U.S. demand and then some (when other immunotherapies come down the pipe like Neuvenge for bladder cancer, etc).
    Ignore pending bankruptcy claims. Dndn OWNS THE FIRST EVER FDA APPROVED (12 year patent exclusivity under Obamacare), novel, game changing therapeutic immunotherapy cancer vaccine. Dying men from prostate cancer (PC) want to sustain their quality of life and they can play golf the following weekend after being treated with Provenge.

    FOCUS ON THE SIZE OF THE MARKET FOR PROVENGE! Why? Because Wallstreet won't mention the numbers and we know numbers don't lie!
    *1-2 million men have PC in the U.S.
    *271,740 men will/have been diagnosed with PC this year.
    *10% or almost 100,000 men have mCRPC (provenge label)
    *Baby Boomer influx only sustains or increases these numbers
    *30-35,000 men are newly diagnosed with mCRPC
    *30,000 men die each year from PC
    *The European population of men with PC is similar to the U.S (EU approval happens next Summer, 2013)

    Dndn is currently treating about 900 men per quarter (3600 men/year) which is $83M in quarterly revenue ($93,000 x 900=$83M).
    Ignoring the 100K men living with mCRPC, let's just take the 30,000 men figure that are newly diagnosed with mCRPC throughout a year and divide it by 4.
    That equates to 7500 men newly diagnosed each quarter with mCRPC.

    Dndn is only treating about 900 men out of the 7500 men newly diagnosed with mCRPC each quarter. That's less then 1/7th of the available mCRPC population.
    Ok, you can close your mouth ;o)
    Dndn's current annual treatment rate is 3600 (900x4) men.
    Remember, 7500 men are newly diagnosed w/ mCRPC each quarter.
    And remember, we're not including those 100,000 men already living with mCRPC!!
    Okay, you can sit down now.

    Finally, ignore the threats of competion (Zytiga, MDV3100) because, unfortunately, there are more than enough men to go around to all players in the PC space. Wallstreet & their institutional clients (currently own 61% of dndn outstanding shares) wants you to believe that competition will drive down Provenge sales.
    There are 3 reasons why this is bogus! First, ethical doctors (urologists/oncologists) will treat dying patients with their interests at heart, not the competition. Second, doctors will "sequence" the available therapies to extend survival of the dying patient to the max! And third, there is a little bitty incentive for doctors to infuse Provenge.
    It's only $5500 per patient ;o)

    Get ready folks...! Wallstreet is manipulating/shorting this stock over time to keep prices depressed the remainder of 2012 (short to distort tactic) to get your shares. CEO JJ is working with the LARGE SHAREHOLDERS too to keep expectational guidance modest.
    The CEO philosophy is called "Underpromise to Overdeliver"!
    Hold on to them shares tightly (don't set limits up or down).
    Dndn will become the next Celgene beginning late next Summer when CEO JJ surprises, and the shorts cover (not to profit, but to simply support the surprise).
    Dndn soon will become the next Celgene back when they launched Revlimid in their initial drug launch heyday!
    A Dendreonite called Labronzed!
    Sep 13, 2012. 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    My statistics write-up comment was removed...!
    The Defense Rests!
    DNDN to $300/shr
    Sep 13, 2012. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    If only Agent Smith (SmithonStocks) and Mr Mcbride would weigh in here..., then the comment section would be complete.
    All 4 gents that I admire and whov covered DNDN over the years would have been present here. How cool would that be?
    Roll Call:
    T-Cohen; here!
    M-Murphy; here!
    Mr. Smith; ?
    Mr. Mcbride; ?


    ps: Left 1 statistic off my previous writeup.
    30,000 men (unfortunately) die each year from prostate cancer.
    Sep 13, 2012. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: All Eyes Are On The Balance Sheet [View article]
    And we all know why UBS won't rate DNDN a buy,hold, or sell since 2005.
    Wee also know why DNDN doesn't attend their annual health care conference (next Wednesday the 19th). And won't attend if invited
    And we definitely know that DNDN won't do another secondary so UBS large tute customers can get shares.
    Sorry, gotta buy directly from the market just like everyone else ;).
    Sep 12, 2012. 06:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment