mbkelly75

9 Things to Be Thankful For This Year

Sorry - I left out the breads, biscuits, and cheeses. It was a VERY good day.

How to Live with a Financially Illiterate Population

It has to start with education when they are young and learning comes easier, before they are set in their ways and have already decided that they can or can not learn something. Very young kids have beaten the heck out of financial advisors by picking stocks and doing well with them (better than the so-called experts by a large margin). My kids started learning about stocks, bonds and commodities in games before they were even in kindergarten and they had their first stocks no later than their 4th birthday. It is not a matter of being able to do it - they can do it very well while very young - but it is hard to learn such things from parents who have never had the knowledge to begin with. If it can be taught in schools at the same time as they learn to read, write and do the math - it will be a very different future for all of us.
In the meantime, show the ones who want to learn how to do it, and the ones who do not want to learn - let them go. You can NOT help someone who does not want to be helped or teach someone who does not want to learn.

9 Things to Be Thankful For This Year

Thanksgiving around here tends to trash the BMI - there are too many of us having too good a time. We had turkey and roast beef, sweet potatoes done several ways, salads, deviled eggs, veggies, cold cuts and lots of dips, several pies, lots of homemade fudge, cookies and pastries, beer, wine, milk and soda. There was 30 of us that made it - my wife and I, kids and grandkids along with 15 mini-dachshunds just for the fun of it. It was a good day and we are already planning the Christmas party. Everyone is healthy and happy - us, all 10 kids, all 28 grandkids, and our new great-grandkid. That alone, is reason for giving thanks.

The Wisdom of Seven Charts, When Emotion Is Detached

Trends do tend to keep right on going and currency trends can go on for years - regardless of what else is going on. I like these charts - thank you for the update and your work here.

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

The 3 Rules listed by the writer are good ones and worth keeping in mind. I have 3 more that I use and came from Marty Whitman of Third Avenue Value Fund:
1) Be a buy-and-hold investor. By this he does mean buy-and-homework.
2) Don't use borrowed funds to invest.
3) Don't own the common stocks of companies which need relatively continual access to capital markets if they are to remain going concerns.

He agrees with Peter Lynch - do not use margins to invest. I have seen WAY too many people get wiped out because they were on the wrong side of a margin call. When money is tight or hard to get - companies that need money all the time to operate do NOT do well. Avoid the problem by avoiding the companies. The companies to look for in hard times are the ones that have a product that:
1) you can smoke, 2) you can drink, 3) you can eat, 4) use as medicine or, 5) wash with. Think about it.

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

New information - HTE has dropped the dividend starting in December because they are being sold. I am looking at PVX to replace the dividend. They look like the best deal so far, but I could use more DD here. What are your opinions on this?


On Nov 19 08:24 PM mbkelly75 wrote:

> HTE did not reduce the dividend either. On 16 Nov they will pay $0.0476/share
> - last month they paid $0.0467/share. It is not a big raise - but
> it is a raise.

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

I have been in the markets over 50 years and was one of the best and brightest in Viet Nam. I came out of the 70's quite well off from playing cards in Las Vegas and investing a part of my winnings in the stock markets. Your 3 rules are good ones and very much like something I also do every day.
I have NO idea how Nancy Pelosi ever got elected at all - let alone re-elected - she would cheerfully have changed California to the Soviet Socialist Republic of California long ago had she been able to. California politics is why I do not and will not ever live there even though I grew up on the beach and love the beautiful mountains and shorelines - the politics are just too weird there.
SNAFU covers the economy pretty well, but that simply leaves things open for the watchful person to find a good deal. The Great Depression made more millionaires than any other time in our countries history and the 70's made quite a few also. This time is no different. The Chinese symbol for "crisis" has opportunity as a part of it and it is a wise idea. From any problem comes opportunity and it is no different now. I made a great deal of money this year because I am fully invested all the time. I am a bottom-fisher at heart and the crash put so many great stocks on sale, I had a ball picking up the stocks I wanted at greatly reduced prices. I check to see if my portfolios need re-balancing every two weeks and that works well for me. A very well written article - keep up the good work.

Seven Dividend Stocks to Take the Emotion Out of Investing

I love the quotes - thank you. Enjoy the holiday!


On Nov 25 09:17 PM Livingstone wrote:

> Here are two quotes for you from The Dow Jones-Irwin Guide To Put
> & Call Options (1975 , Henry K. Clasing, Jr.)
>
> "The common sense of the marketplace is that it is made up of people
> and there is a wide disparity between the abilities of these people
> to make money in the stock market. There are also wide discrepancies
> in the ability of market participants to perceive and understand
> the events that offer clues to future business conditions."
>
> "There are a few successful stock market investors and they have
> one trait in common. They understand how the market crowd behaves
> and do the opposite. When the crowd has gotten excited about the
> future direction of stock prices and has moved them up, the professional
> sells. When the crowd is gripped with fear that the world is coming
> to an end even though it isn't, the professional buys."

ETF Market Trends: Trend Monitor, Market Momentum Tables

I am not related to the writer but I have 10 kids, 28 grandkids and 1 great-grand kid and am the Patriarch of the entire group. If there is a problem - I am the one that they come to. I am also the one that everyone comes to for family fun also. We can usually get about 2/3 of the crew together at any given time for a party. Enjoy the holiday. :)


On Nov 26 05:07 PM Northern Dancer wrote:

> On Nov 26 04:42 PM mbkelly75 wrote:

ETF Market Trends: Trend Monitor, Market Momentum Tables

Thank you - enjoy your holiday. I have the advantage on one point. I AM the in-law. :)

Nintendo's Vitality Sensor Has Infinite Potential

I had heard about this and was excited by the possibilities that this could hold. The Wii is already being used by a great many physical therapists for helping even more people. This can only improve the range of uses for the Wii in health care as well as enabling much more to be done at home. Great idea on Nintendo's part. Thanks for this article bringing it to my attention once again.

The Vital Few: ETFs Ranked by Average Daily Value Traded

Interesting article with some fine research - thank you for your work on this and the food for thought here.

Meredith Whitney vs. John Paulson on BofA: They're Both Wrong

Why would you have to believe in forecasts to invest??? You should have enough knowledge to make your own judgments. I have been successfully investing for over 50 years with very little attention to any forecasts during the whole time period. Peter Lynch put it very well when he said:
"There is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of newscasters. Sell a stock because the company's fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling."
"Nobody can predict the interest rates, the future direction of the economy, or the stock market. Dismiss all such forecasts and concentrate on what is actually happening to the companies in which you've invested."
"If you study 10 companies, you will find 1 in which the story is better than expected. If you study 50, you will find 5. There are always pleasant surprises to be found in the stock market - companies whose achievements are being overlooked on Wall Street."
The key here is that you have to study. Forecasts come from people who do not necessarily know any more than you do and may know less or have their own agenda - such as selling a book or a service that you may not need anyway. You may not like to hear it or give me a minus, but it does not change the truth of what I say here.
The purpose of the article is just that - to disagree and show why they might be wrong and where they may have made a mistake. You do not have to agree with him - he is sharing his opinion - that is all that is happening here. He has a valid viewpoint and has shared it with us for our benefit. If you think he is right - good - but if you think he is wrong - that is also good IF you know why you think he is wrong.


On Nov 26 12:57 PM bbro wrote:

> So you don't believe in forecasts ( which if you invest you obvious
> do) ....how does this article help investors???

Wanted: New Gold's Asset-Backed Commercial Paper

It is nice to see it opening up again. There might just be hope yet. Happy Thanksgiving to all here at SA.

Cramer's Stop Trading! It's All About the Dividend (11/24/09)

Oh sure - that is why I have 2 portfolios. A Core Portfolio that almost never changes and pays me well from dividends and interest. (6.68% annually right now) and a Trading Portfolio that is up 522+% so far this year. The Core is MUCH larger than the Trading and supports me and mine with extra cash left over though.