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David Sebastian

David Sebastian
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  • Sell-side weighs in on Starbucks [View news story]
    Bottom line, and I know it is trite, but I am not going to pay $2.25 for a grande coffee. ($2.25 x 20 x 12 = - $540 per year) It's not that I can't afford it, l'll just do without. And I was frequenting one of their top stores in Summit, NJ. I still drink Starbucks coffee, but I make it at home.
    Jul 25 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Risk Soars As Bond Spreads Collapse [View article]
    70% of 1950 equals 1365. Ouch! When will folks learn that investment returns are not linear?
    Jun 16 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trulia rises following positive traffic data; Zillow also up [View news story]
    I am sorry, tell me again how they make money?
    Jun 13 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk bonds make another run at sub-5% [View news story]
    This is not a "High Yield" Market. It is a "Low Yield" Market. "Investors" if we can call them that, are not being compensated for their risk taking. This along with Senior Loans are the most "bubblish" markets today! When the markets correct, and they will, crappy companies with negative cash flows can default just as easy with 5% bonds as with 10%.
    Jun 10 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Q1 GDP Data Misleading Us? [View article]
    Let's be serious for a moment. Get the Fed, Bank of Japan, and ECB out of the "Miracle Grow Business" and we'll see where the "real economy is." Market's like the real world are not "linear" they have functioned well in the past with "normal cyclicality." When are the grownups going to show-up and acknowledge that monetary policy has gotten drastically of course!
    May 29 03:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Tepper's Appaloosa Management Portfolio - Q1 2014 Update [View article]
    "Increased 13.55%" Is that the investment return for the period or simply the increase in the size of the fund as monies were added?
    May 22 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Paradigm Shift Has Begun - This Isn't Going To Be Pretty [View article]
    Sell off in the Bond Market Yes! But which bond market? High Yield Debt or in today's case Low Yield Debt. What troubles me is that no one cares about orderly markets when they are going up, but what about when they go down? Has anyone given any thought to who is going to step in and support the marginal distribution of this expensive paper. There are only a couple of major investment banks left. This period reminds me of a Long-Term Capital / Asian Market Debt collapse. It can get ugly extremely fast! Especially with leverage. And when it starts it will take down commodities and the US & Global equity markets.
    Jun 11 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Fed Rage' Unwarranted? [View article]
    The Bubble is in Credit. Beware of the blind spot. High yield credit at under 5%??? Give me a break. Don't pay attention to the relative spreads it's absolute returns versus risk that folks should be looking at.
    May 10 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The 'Fed Rage' Unwarranted? [View article]
    Stability / Instability for who??? Is it for the entire system? Is it for the owner of assets? Or the owner of the liabilities? To me it has become clear that current policies only benefit the affluent at the expense of the system. My clients don't believe that they are getting richer today even though there stock portfolio is going up. They are starting to believe that the system is out of control and at some point there will be real chaos. Bernanke is an academic. I now that many other have uttered the words, but this will not end well......
    May 10 01:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trend-Topping Tuesday: Too Tough To Turn The Tide? [View article]
    Phil. All I can say is that "generally" your comments seem well thought out and blanced from an investment perspective---weighing in on pros and cons. I would argue now that your article has gotten a wee bit euphoric! Deep down I'm an optimist too. But I have learned is all about the price you pay and the value of safety you build in to your investment / risk models. After four years of battling against the bears, it feels like a good time to let some stuff go. You got to know when to hold em, know when to hold em, no when to walk away, know when to run....Phil, how much do you want, because my clients are already ahead of the game?
    Feb 12 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wednesday Wheeee! Oil $95.50 And Falling [View article]
    One thing I am certain of after 34 years in the business is that I am not the smartest guy in the room. However, over that time I have aquired a little wisdom. An assumption that a lot of folks are making is that investors haven't been participating the last 4 years in the markets recovery. I think that is inacurate. Listen, all of the tables at the Casino have been hot. My clients are ahead of the game. As a prudent manager of risk I am supposed to be conveying to them that "trees don't grow to the sky." That they should be re-balancing or "de-risking." They need to be selling into this latest liftoff. HAve we learned nothing???
    Feb 6 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued, And Extended Unemployment Claims - Jan. 24, 2013 [View article]
    What has been happening over the last year to workers going out on Long-Term Disability? Are workers leaving the Long-Term Unemployment Rolls and going onto the Long-Term Disability Rolls which would actually be worse?
    Jan 24 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wesco Financial (WSC) jumps 14.9% as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) offers to buy the 19.9% that it already doesn't own. The proposed deal is a cash-stock election made of Berkshire class B (BRK.B) shares and/or cash equivalent of Wesco's book value.  [View news story]
    Warren is taking out his buddy Charlie for cash while Long Term Tax rates are low..interesting!
    Aug 26 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economic Stability Plan: Glimmers of Hope Fading [View article]
    I am no longer working on Wall Street and am currently managing money for High Net worth Clients. That being said, I spent my first 22 years working for many of the major money center banks and brokerage firms...some of which are no longer around. When I started it was a simpler business, but I was involved in the trading and asset-liability management. What seems to be lost...and many of my "grey haired" peers that prior to 2006 we did not have the onerous requirement to "mark-to-market" the balance sheet.....what we are seeing is a ludicrous distruction of the global financial system....The system has long ago written off the losses to sub-prime and other questionable assets....the majority of assets are still performing and producing positive cash flow to offset asset deterioration if amortized over a normal period of time. If the current system is maintained we will continue to overstate earnings in good times and in bad times such as now we will bankrupt the entire system. Is this a sound model???? I think we have too many "smart people" that are tinkering with things who don't have clue what's going on. If the SEC temporarily suspended "mark-to-market accounting" it would require no government funds. It should have been done months ago!!!

    Finally, as an investor I may want to come in and purchase equity ownership because I believe that assets will recover if given a chance. This is how it worked in all prior times of crisis.
    Feb 6 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment