Neil Feinberg's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/352281/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1094101/comments?source=feed#comment-13288241 13288241 Thu, 03 Jan 2013 22:44:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1086271/comments?source=feed#comment-13133031 13133031
From everything you said above and from what else i have read - the 4th qtr distribution might be quite good. Shipping (and thus royalties) should be up compared to q42011 and realized price has to be higher

I think a dividend of 70 cents or higher would get the stock back to $27 in short order - any guesses on the payout? Does your analysis assume that even with the CLF shutdown - MSB still ships an equivalent amount in 2013 as 2012]]> Sun, 30 Dec 2012 20:30:39 -0500
From everything you said above and from what else i have read - the 4th qtr distribution might be quite good. Shipping (and thus royalties) should be up compared to q42011 and realized price has to be higher

I think a dividend of 70 cents or higher would get the stock back to $27 in short order - any guesses on the payout? Does your analysis assume that even with the CLF shutdown - MSB still ships an equivalent amount in 2013 as 2012]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1086271/comments?source=feed#comment-13084991 13084991
if they cannot mine they cannot ship and royalties will be lower - your analysis is flawed unless you can explain this

with that said - iron ore prices have increased over 40% in the past quarter - and CLF may reconsider - which would put MSB above $30]]> Fri, 28 Dec 2012 22:38:02 -0500
if they cannot mine they cannot ship and royalties will be lower - your analysis is flawed unless you can explain this

with that said - iron ore prices have increased over 40% in the past quarter - and CLF may reconsider - which would put MSB above $30]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1070421/comments?source=feed#comment-12730241 12730241 Tue, 18 Dec 2012 11:20:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/986651/comments?source=feed#comment-11401691 11401691
You are assuming a $3.50 dividend stream, given the volatility in global steel prices - that is pretty optimistic

More important - you need to PRESENT VALUE the investment plus look at the tax consequences (dividends are taxed at ordinary rates - not the 15% qualified), so the real value today is

WELL SOUTH OF $30]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 22:09:10 -0500
You are assuming a $3.50 dividend stream, given the volatility in global steel prices - that is pretty optimistic

More important - you need to PRESENT VALUE the investment plus look at the tax consequences (dividends are taxed at ordinary rates - not the 15% qualified), so the real value today is

WELL SOUTH OF $30]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/936551/comments?source=feed#comment-10940981 10940981
I do think we have more downside - if you want to stay short in the name and need protection - i would recommend buying the December 30 calls to hedge yourself in case of a pop - they are very cheap]]> Fri, 26 Oct 2012 14:16:47 -0400
I do think we have more downside - if you want to stay short in the name and need protection - i would recommend buying the December 30 calls to hedge yourself in case of a pop - they are very cheap]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/936551/comments?source=feed#comment-10761981 10761981
Thanks

Neil]]> Mon, 22 Oct 2012 08:28:14 -0400
Thanks

Neil]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/911071/comments?source=feed#comment-10302191 10302191
I have noticed with this stock - as we get closer to the 2015 date, the value of the stock relative to its real value tends to decrease - last year the stock traded as much as 75% over its fair value - this year its been trading around 50% over its fair value. As the author has pointed out, the prices today are high - even relative to its ridiculous valuation - i would expect the stock to trade in the mid 60's within the next month]]> Mon, 08 Oct 2012 17:15:57 -0400
I have noticed with this stock - as we get closer to the 2015 date, the value of the stock relative to its real value tends to decrease - last year the stock traded as much as 75% over its fair value - this year its been trading around 50% over its fair value. As the author has pointed out, the prices today are high - even relative to its ridiculous valuation - i would expect the stock to trade in the mid 60's within the next month]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/661861/comments?source=feed#comment-6524231 6524231 Mon, 18 Jun 2012 08:39:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/321426/comments?source=feed#comment-2196739 2196739
ALSO - COMPANY ANNOUNCED THAT ITS LAST DIVIDEND WOULD BE THE PEAK - DIVIDEND FOR UPCOMING QUARTER IS LIKELY TO BE $2 OR LESS]]> Mon, 23 Jan 2012 17:36:36 -0500
ALSO - COMPANY ANNOUNCED THAT ITS LAST DIVIDEND WOULD BE THE PEAK - DIVIDEND FOR UPCOMING QUARTER IS LIKELY TO BE $2 OR LESS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/308589/comments?source=feed#comment-2069891 2069891 Tue, 29 Nov 2011 11:29:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/275633/comments?source=feed#comment-1718809 1718809 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 23:18:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/116964/comments?source=feed#comment-378368 378368
more importantly, where does FOR go if the bid is dropped. and what are the chances of them NOT accepting the bid. From what i can see, risk seems to be about $1-2 in the stock, with upside of $4.50, so if the odds are better than 33% of the deal happening, then you want to BUY it right here]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:25:35 -0500
more importantly, where does FOR go if the bid is dropped. and what are the chances of them NOT accepting the bid. From what i can see, risk seems to be about $1-2 in the stock, with upside of $4.50, so if the odds are better than 33% of the deal happening, then you want to BUY it right here]]>