Nik Kondratieff

The Roots of the Coming Crash

Felix,

Thanks for the clear analysis of the Roubini FT article. I read it yesterday and was very concerned. Your deconstruction only confirms my fears. The US economy is going to crater and people will be stunned. We don't have capitalism here anymore...we have corporatism and quasi-fascism. The middle class--anyone earning under $250K is screwed.


Nik

The Aftershock: Where Does the Next Investment Opportunity Lie?

Thanks for your great review of this book. It looks like an insightful analysis. I think Eric Janszen is one of the people who gets what's happening. His itulip.com is a great resource, and his article in the May 2008 Harpers pretty clearly laid out the current financial crisis.

Yes, we're in an acute financial crisis that has major geo-political implications with China and what will emerge as the world's reserve currency in the 21st century. But just as important, especially here in the US, is that we've eviscerated the Middle Class and the crisis is now a crisis for the survival of Middle Class life.

Policy Lessons from the Great Depression

A world catastrophe, like a war is the only thing that will stop the death spiral of the U.S. economy...that is the salient parallel with the 1930s Great Depression.

The belief in "pure capitalism" or "free market capitalism" is pure folly. We live in a corporatist-fascist state. If Adam Smith were alive today he would shudder at the concentration of monopoly power in the largest corporations and in the organization of special interest groups. It's ironic...no tragic...that the loudest voices for "pure capitalism" are the most ignorant of what that really means.

The World's Biggest Game of Chicken

You should take a look at Ed Harrison's piece on Naked Capitalism www.nakedcapitalism.co...

and his argument on the China/US trade war

www.creditwritedowns.c...

China will have a larger domestic market than the US by 2027. Their middle class, when it hits a mere 20% of their population will dwarf our entire population base.

the 20th Century was the peak of the American empire, the 21st shall be China's.

Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun

Let's see where we are in 5 years---with piles of debt, no jobs, declining productivity, declining asset prices, increasing defaults, idle capital, overcapacity and a massive federal deficit and weakened revenues--we're all but guaranteed a Depression. Ed's right. Massive changes need to happen before we can get out of this mess.


On Oct 04 07:41 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> If you would have written this one year ago >i would be taking what
> you said more serious
>
> But the major banks all got secondary offerings which does dilute
> them but they are much more liquid then they were
>
> The massive delevearging has already been going on almost a year
> now
>
> I agree the economy is not improving but where else would any sane
> person who is tired of 1% going to put their money?
>
> Of course the high dividend safe multinational large caps will draw
> the money
>
> Depressions are caused when the banks dont have any cash
>
> The fed is making sure there is massive liquidity
>
> No depression is on the horizon

Spin at the FDIC

I wish I had something insightful to say, but this proposal is such pathetic rubbish all it does is confirm that the U.S. economy is FU@K#D.

My god they've lost their minds in DC

The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud

JSK, I'm sorry to say you've nailed it on the head.

With massive fissures opening up in the American polity because of pernicious racism, when the curtain is pulled back and the financial fraud exposed, it's going to get very ugly in the U.S.

How to Reduce the Mountain of Debt

Felix,

Abolishing mortgage interest tax benefits is political suicide. The US will sooner devolve into complete financial chaos, than give up the right to mortgage interest tax deductions. It's in the Bill of Rights, isn't it? ;)

Green Shoots: Starting to Wither...Soon to Die

A full-scale war with massive productive capacity mobilization is the only thing that will save the US economy. I'm not advocating war, I'm just telling you there is nothing that will bring the US economy out of this death spiral short of a full-scale conflict that employs millions, kills millions, and produces tangible goods.

The truth hurts.

The Biggest Financial Company You Have Never Heard Of

credence to the argument that the world's economy is controlled by a tight cabal

Larry Summers vs. Everybody Else

The Obama economic team will go down in history as being as bad a choice for this country as Bush's foreign policy/defense team of Rummy, Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rice, et al. Summers is just the biggest lightning rod of them all, but Geithner, Goolsbee, Gensler, and Co have not been much better.

This country needs an econ policy team reset and Obama needs to hear it loud and clear.

Fixing the Vicious Ratings Loop

It boggles the mind.

Why Market Pessimism Has No Constituency: The View from the Top

Great article. Yes, we all want to hope and believe that the future will be brighter, it's the American way. It's why this country was peopled by the Europeans and why tens of millions of immigrants made the journey--to make a better life. So are we to be faulted that we fell for the 20th century version of snake oil? The American spirit is also one of ingenuity and that means financial ingenuity. Most people don't realize the 1907 Panic instituted the first great wave of financial regulation and much of that was in reaction to the disastrous impact of bucket shops. The CDS, CDO, and MBS markets of today are nothing more than sophisticated bucket shops, and because the banking lobby and a Congress--who believed it's mandate was to enable that American dream of a brighter and wealthier tomorrow--were so eager to let the ibanks have their way with new fangled financial products that promised ever greater riches.

We're all complicit. And we're all in for the most devastating period in the history of this country.

Bernanke's Fiscal Focus

I don't think 99% of the general public realizes that a private organization is playing such a major role in setting fiscal policy, nor if they did, would be able to tell you the difference between fiscal and monetary policy. That said, it's a bit unsettling--if expected, given the current instability in our financial system and economy--that the Fed is shaping said policy and is beholden to no one but its member banks.

FDIC Reserve Ratio Plummets

Tyler,

Once again, thank you for your diligent, investigative reporting on the state of the financial system--a bleak picture indeed. Though you raise serious questions that no one in the MSM, the government, or the banking industry is addressing, it's critical you keep doing it and more people learn from your posts. Hopefully we'll wake up to the Great American Tragedy that is befalling our society, before it's too late.

Nik