retired..........biotech investor My investment thesis is that Cancer will be cured in this decade and the Magnificent Seven will move us toward the goal CTIX NWBO PCYC THLD SNTA IMUC SBFM ______________________________________________________________ The next Wave will be Regenerative Medicine and a group of biotechs I call the Cell Biology Seven will lead that wave. ISCO is now the leader of that group and may become the dominant supplier to others in the field in the same manner that MSFT came to dominate computer operating systems in prior decades. The other six are BTX MEDS NNVC BCLI ARWR SRPT
Finished CFA level 1 & CAIA level 1 in a breeze. Looking forward to CAIA level 2 and CFA level 2. Made top 1% on the Bloomberg BAT, but was a black sheep at my mediocre college, and I was foolish to let it affect me. (non-traditional student)
Hope to write some quality articles in the coming year.
I was playing with fire my first year in the market, using a lot of call options. It was easy to make 50+% gain in 1st yr, summer '13 to summer '14 (thank you bull mkt). This past half year has been a little rough; I wish I had acted more decisively on material information about the energy market and the movement of the Ruble ($YNDX is a favorite).
I remember announcing the probably course of events to family the morning after OPEC's Thanksgiving's Day announcements, and I regrettably decided to wait it through b/c our professors chided us to take a buy and hold approach, and b/c I had bought some quality energy names at very fair prices in October. In retrospect, I realize the importance of optionality or in a sense, degrees of freedom.
In this case, I realize I am too committed to a base scenario (energy stocks recovering in the next year) that has too much opportunity cost. If the price adjustment cycle lasts longer than the expected scenario, then I will be unhappy with the opportunities lost. An equal weight short position would have been an ideal temporary maneuver, expressing my short-term thesis, while not causing commitment angst in the present, hoping for the long-term adjustment to blow over.
I was entrusted with a fresh 100K family capital this past summer, and I plan to be more prudent and thorough (obviously with minimal leverage or derivatives). This market is a little dangerous with high debt loads in China, somewhat high valuation levels (horrible Schiller CAPE ratio, but not sure if that matters as much), and jitters over rate hike, Ukraine, terrorism, epidemics, difficulty of private sector adjusting to Obamacare, and possible fiscal & monetary stimulus tapering.
I think low energy prices is a great stimulus, but the possibilities of a perfect storm with semi-hard landing in China or Europe, a serious violent flare-up with Russia or the Terror War, and disease outbreak could somehow happen at just the wrong time (perhaps, right after a rate hike).
I've read a fair amount of Buffett. But I love the tech industry mostly. To humor Buffett (a tech dinosaur), I bought a tiny bit of IBM. It has been working hard to transform its whole business, and actually has some top-notch talent and product portfolios with a fairly conservative valuation. The market is probably right that is a long-shot that IBM will grow significantly again, despite its immense technology assets and partnerships. Recent comment: feel lucky to have exited IBM at a small gain; mulling a re-entry and annoyed that I missed the recent Google explosion. Google is solidifying its reach and ecosystem, but at steep multiples.
I've been away from investing for much of the past half year (now dec'15), partly because I was getting cyberattacks on my twitter account, my computer, and broker connection was being intercepted, which made me very uncomfortable. My car also very suddenly needed an engine replacement that same week, despite a thorough check-up a month prior. I'm having a hard time moving forward, after severe blacklisting after-effects, (too long & weird to discuss).
CAIA & CFA level 1s were super-easy even though I was underprepared. I look forward to embracing the challenge. I will end up working in Europe or abroad, if I have to. Lucky to get tons of invites from Bloomberg recruitment due to top notch scores, but haven't really applied b/c of crummy school issues. Plan to work on Wall Street Prep & hopefully some SA articles.
Dreamjob: working for a hedge fund focussing in equities, preferably with a multicultural bunch (I'm half european / half asian american)
Long-term dream job: top-notch hedge fund manager
My favorite time horizon: 3mo to 18mo, b/c best chance of having a direct connect with news & analysis. market moves too fast to be primarily buy & hold, albeit such a mid-term outlook forfeits the benefit of effective interest-free loan in the the form of deferred taxes (as Buffett makes use of) as well as benefit of a capital gains rate, but on the other hand, a mid-term outlook maximizes flexibility. I'm trying to stay more grounded in fundamentals, flesh out the invest case for a quite a handful of stocks, and balancing risks in wide portfolio. Plan to explore ETF's more.
I am a value investor interested in learning more about the market and various trading strategies. I have been investing in stocks for over a decade now, and learned a lot about myself and investing in general. I believe in individual rights and free markets (therefore limited government), but have been around the block long enough to know that capitalism is not perfect and the market is subject to corruption and manipulation. I also believe it is possible to profit in any market - the key lies in your decisiveness, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
Several books that inform my investment philosophy are:
1) William O'Neill - How to Make Money in Stocks
2) Edwin Lefèvre - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
3) Michael Sincere - Understanding Options
4) Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor
5) Robert Hagstrom - The Warren Buffett Way
6) Ken Fisher - Markets Never Forget (But People Do), The Only Three Questions That Still Count
7) Pat Dorsey - The Five Rules For Successful Stock Investing
8) Heather Brilliant & Elizabeth Collins - Why Moats Matter
9) Jim Rogers - A Gift to My Children
10) Ray Dalio (video) - How the Economic Machine Works
I have also taken graduate courses in Strategy, Investments, Portfolio Management, Entrepreneurial Finance, Corporate Finance, Financial Accounting, Corporate Governance, and Valuation.
Some of my favorites quotes:
when we know ourselves to be connected to all others, acting compassionately is simply the natural thing to do. -rachel naomi remen
the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. - j.m. keynes
it is only by being bold that you get anywhere. if you are a risk-taker, then the art is to protect the downside. -richard branson
i have always believed that the only way to cope with a cash crisis is not to contract but to try to expand out of it. -richard branson
entrepreneurship is the pursuit of opportunity without regard to resources currently controlled. - howard stevenson
don't optimize a melting ice cube. - kevin efrusy
the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. - f. scott fitzgerald
the dissenter is every human being at those moments of his life when he resigns momentarily from the herd and thinks for himself. - archibald macleish
it ain’t so much the things we don’t know that get us into trouble, it’s the things we do know that just ain’t so. - artemus ward
if you resist reading what you disagree with, how will you ever acquire deeper insights into what you believe? the things most worth reading are precisely those that challenge our convictions. - oliver wendell holmes
My investment thesis is that Cancer will be cured in this decade and the
Magnificent Seven will move us toward the goal CTIX NWBO PCYC THLD SNTA IMUC SBFM
The next Wave will be Regenerative Medicine and a group of biotechs I call the
Cell Biology Seven will lead that wave. ISCO is now the leader of that group and
may become the dominant supplier to others in the field in the same manner that
MSFT came to dominate computer operating systems in prior decades.
The other six are BTX MEDS NNVC BCLI ARWR SRPT
Bert J. Wilkison, of Chicago, IL, is the CEO and a Managing Member at Kinetic Investments, a subsidiary of Wilkison Financial, LLC. He is also an active pooled funds manager who enjoys stock picking, trading, ETF strategizing and finding long-term value plays ahead of the ever-evolving markets. Lastly, he handles intricate and involved corporate negotiations, as a third party, on a commission basis.
Follow him on twitter @KineticInvestor or e-mail him for additional commentary at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Areas of focus: Gold, Mining, Oil/Nat Gas, Rare Earth Elements and Metals, Healthcare/Biotech, Energy, Tech, ETFs, Consumer Goods, Utilities, and Services.