Seeking Alpha

happyshorter

happyshorter
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View happyshorter's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why I Closed Out My Gold Short [View article]
    We can't throw stones to one who lives in fear.


    But is such a fear worth a SA article?
    Maybe for the satisfaction of saying, afterwards: "I told you!"


    How are Oil and Gold crashes linked?
    
    Traders probably assume that with the oil price down, Russia and other hit countries will sell gold massively?
    Maybe time to buy both: airlines are certainly buying lots if cheap oil contracts.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Take Note: The Swiss Gold Referendum Has Already Changed The Gold Market [View article]
    "I believe Ms. Le Pen, ..., probably has a little bit more insight into the whereabouts of French gold then anybody posting on Seeking Alpha. "

    May I respectfully disagree?

    Whatever she thinks or does if she ever was elected, her move will have little impact on the price of gold.

    I think that gold may go up only if investors think that there is nothing more undervalued.
    (Unless for sure a huge terrorist attack or a global crash)
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen And The Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry [View article]
    Thank you.
    I was aware of this since long, and I do not look to invest in American stocks for the dividends. But I do check the dividends, because their variations influence the stock price.

    I receive other US incomes, and not only are they taxed very high, but I do not receive the Canadian credit for foreign taxes paid.
    But since the investment was almost free, I am happy to receive those checks once a month.
    Nov 23, 2014. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen And The Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry [View article]
    A good harvest in China does mean fertilizer industry down, at least not for nitrogen.
    Unless you think that a good harvest would mean less production to come, which is very unlikely in China.
    Nitrogen must be applied every year.
    On the other side a good harvest is good for potash, because potash is mostly needed when the plants have absorbed it all, so a bad harvest would be bad for potash.
    China, like India, has a huge negotiating power (India was the main reason for the "crash" of fertilizers: India preferred to starve its people as to pay the Campotex fixed prices.
    Those prices were a terrible thing for the poorer countries, and even if it hurt all the industry, (and me as a share holder) it was a good thing that the Cartel was broken.
    China and India are starting so sign huge contracts, so I guess the whole industry is on good track.
    But I doubt that China and India will be good clients specifically for TNH.
    Nov 21, 2014. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen And The Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry [View article]
    I agree that for some, agriculture stocks are less "sexy" then BABA, YHOO, APPL, not for me.
    (Although I must confess that I have had a great ride on BABA).

    I am Canadian, and I did not know Terra Nitrogen, so I thank you.

    But I have always had a great interest for agriculture stocks (except for Monsanto).

    I find that your article is interesting as to the future of nitrogen.
    [I had to search what Yield Cos were. I am right to think that they are similar to the Canadian Income Trusts?]

    But when you write:
    " Indeed, a cursory look at the company's third quarter earnings statement suggests investors have gone crazy. Terra Nitrogen has continued its relatively solid performance."
    I think we did not read the same thing.

    Net earnings per Common Unit $ 2.60 $ 2.52 $ 9.02 $ 12.04
    (From your link to the company website)
    See also
    http://yhoo.it/1F7biUY
    I see a dramatic falling performance quarter after quarter.
    Investors crazy?

    This seems pretty scary to me too.
    Please tell me what I read wrong!

    Your article comes just at a moment when it had rebound from a 3 years low: with a RSI at 18, it was overdue!
    Probably because like always, the reaction might have been exaggerated.
    But there is the fear that once again the dividend will be cut.
    A target of $200.00?

    Your arguments for nitrogen are valid for the others, mostly Agrium and Mosaic

    Even Agrium took a hit, but that large!

    I appreciated your article, but I would need more to be a buyer.
    Nov 21, 2014. 02:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Underperformed In 2014 [View article]
    Thank you for replying.
    I only partially agree with Microsoft.
    I think that Microsoft made a big mistake in going into the cell phones and tablets business.
    The company should have concentrated in what they could do best.
    They should have produced a fully usable Office Suite for Mac (including VBA and Web queries), and much faster.
    The lack of a proper Microsoft Word for the Mac has led to a fantastic Mac program, Pages, that Microsoft will have a hard time to replace.
    As for Windows, Windows 8 was not exactly a success.
    Windows 7 was a great improvement to the catastrophic Vista.
    Windows 10 tries to correct what the users did not like.
    Still, Microsoft's come back is pretty remarkable.
    Nov 13, 2014. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Underperformed In 2014 [View article]
    @author
    Thank you for this article. But I wonder if you do not miss one factor for Google's recent bad performance: portfolios reallocations!
    Look at the huge drops of GOOGL at the end of September and all October!
    I am wondering if it is mere coincidence, but could there be a BABA effect?
    For sure lots of AMAZ holders sold to buy BABA.
    No one has an unlimited amount of cash.
    How many shares of BABA could you buy for one of GOOGL?

    I did not own any of those, but I did sell other stocks in prevision, I did not stay aside very long, I bought BABA on October 8th.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Underperformed In 2014 [View article]
    I agree with you: Google has so many projects!
    You forgot the driverless car and the nanotechnology project, and hundreds others.
    Just look at http://bit.ly/1pU3NPU

    But Mark comment is important: few people see the projects, and for those who do, they can't see any profit for most projects in a relatively short time frame.
    And there seems to be no unifying strategy between all projects.
    I guess that working for Google must be a lot of fun, very stimulating.
    But for the investor, (at least for me), it is a stock to watch, never to buy.
    Nov 13, 2014. 03:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba's Most Exciting Day Is Approaching [View article]
    I guess that some products might be banned, but few.

    The problem of the control of the internet content will be in the streaming of foreign (mostly American) films.
    Will this mean that the American film companies will have to respect Chinese "fundamentals" when they will plan to produce a film?
    Or make a purged version for the Chinese?
    Nov 7, 2014. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba's Most Exciting Day Is Approaching [View article]
    About "What Are Alibaba's Competitors Doing for the Day?"
    Unless you had a lot of cash, and a blind love for Amazon, I guess you sold 1 share of Amazon for 3 shares of Alibaba!

    I made a search on Alibaba for two different products, (sold in bulk) and then looked for them on Amazon: there they were, sold by unit at least 15 times more then bought on Alibaba.
    Which means that Amazon and all the small vendors on Amazon buy on Alibaba.

    Now with the 11mainstreet site of Alibaba, if an American good producer wants to sell to China, have a look at which conditions they can make it!
    http://bit.ly/1xcixbs
    (you must register)
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Review For Alibaba: Here's How Much More You Can Expect [View article]
    Starting to pay a dividend s a way to recognize that you are no longer a aggressive growth company.
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad [View article]
    Thank you for this correction about who initiated the BABA investment.
    Although I am not too optimistic about Yahoo short or mid term, I still admire Meyer.
    Nov 3, 2014. 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad [View article]
    With this interpretation of you previous "suddenly", I understand better, because I also think that Meyer is a competent CEO.
    Considering what she had in hands, she made a great job.
    I think that she will find a diplomatic way to put the "activist" in his place, and resist putting her assets in poor investments.
    After all, her greatest recent investment was Alibaba, and she still owns a huge stake.
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad [View article]
    "A suddenly more competent CEO"

    What do you mean by "suddenly"?
    Oct 24, 2014. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yahoo: Ignore The Headlines, The Q3 '14 Results Were Bad [View article]
    I did not find the results very good either.
    If you compare the behavior of Boing the same day, with apparently good results!

    I think that - despite all the criticism- investors bet on Meyer, like Blackberry investors bet on Chen.

    Yes the buyback was a good way to reinvest, but this will soon be priced in.
    She still has plenty of cash and we'll see what she'll do with it.

    But in the moment, the biggest asset is the Alibaba position, and I hope that she won't sell the remaining position.

    She might split the company, this is very "à la mode" these days, and invest in properly chosen start ups (not AOL or SnapChat!).
    Oct 22, 2014. 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
952 Comments
452 Likes