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happyshorter

happyshorter
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  • Student Transportation: Get Off This Bus Before It Crashes [View article]
    Another author wrote an terrible article on SA (and every where he could publish).Remember Apr. 2 years ago?

    The author was short since a while, and paying the dividends each month was very expensive.
    So he wrote that scary article (much worst then this one) proving that STB could cut its dividend very soon.
    That sent the stock almost 15% down in one or 2 days.
    The Globe and Mail rapidly invited investors to use the opportunity to load up (I almost double my position and the stock went back up quickly): I hope this article does something similar

    In all articles on STB, very little is said about the CEO, which is very important!
    Denis Gallagher is a very good CEO and holds a very large part of the shares, so he does not need a extravagant salary,

    If anything went wrong in the economy, kids would still need to go to school.

    I am in no doubt that the company will keep paying its dividend.

    In case the interest rates would go up in 2015, or the price of gas went up, the stock would probably go down, making the yield still higher.
    STB is mostly a dividend play, I have owned it for years, so my profit is really high.
    Many web sites (The Street in particular) have been rating this stock a SELL, while analyst (according to Reuters report) have a an average12 months target of 6.34 (USD).
    It is best to hold the stock in an account where interest and dividends are tax free.
    For me it is no a SELL, it is somewhere between a HOLD and a BUY, but mostly it is a TRADE.
    I have permanently a sell and a buy order on this stock.
    Because the dividend is paid monthly, it is easy to trade in and out.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    Very informative article.

    In the past 2 weeks, I have started last week to accumulate small quantities of stocks that pay good (and secure) dividends, (and covered Friday all of my energy shorts), because one of these days, they will jump up, and provoke a nice, maybe spectacular short squeeze.

    Even if they do not recover to their peak prices, there will be some gains to do there, while investors are desperately looking for oversold stocks.

    (At the time I am writing, PetroChina CO is up 2.84%)

    I think that the best stocks to buy are the companies that are vertically integrated, (if one has not ethical problem):
    A big drop in oil does not reflect immediately in a big drop in gas.
    On the other hand, a small jump in oil price always results in a big jump in oil prices.

    Even if the Lima summit deal is extremely weak, in the case of a (even limited) rebound in energy prices, some solar stocks will also retake some of their losses.

    Climate change or not, China has a very serious need to clean its air.
    China will keep promoting it's solar industry.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    I agree: if some energy investors have not yet sold (and shorted), it is too late. And it might be the right time to cover the shorts.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Gold-Futures Speculators Finally Hit Shorting Exhaustion [View article]
    There was a short lived short-squeeze, but it was a good occasion to short again!
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recovery Of iShares Silver Trust ETF Came To A Halt - What Is Next? [View article]
    I am sorry if I an out of topics, but why are there employment reports "non-farm payroll".
    I keep asking everywhere and never get a reply.
    Who counts the farm "payroll", if one can speak of payroll.
    Is it because one would have to consider how many illegal immigrants work, and take them into account?
    They do participate in the economy, legal or not.
    Is there another reason?
    We can't say that it is because it is seasonal, because lots of other jobs (hotels, retail) are also seasonal.

    Thank you.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Should Go Up Instead Of Down [View article]
    I don't know if this is a good news!
    "Ford Otosan aims to sell its products to Russian state-run companies, such as Gazprom, which prefer Russian-made trucks, and to overcome the 10 percent import tax, which is demanded by Russian authorities for vehicles produced abroad. "
    Is Turkey "abroad?
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Huge Upside Potential [View article]
    You are making big assumptions, especially about the easy task of refinancing the debt!
    Who would like to refinance in the conditions that we are going through, and that are not seeming to want to get better.

    Would you refinance this company? It could go bankrupt anytime.
    There are lots of miners that will need refinancing.
    Those who have a lot of cash can hedge, but I doubt that TC can.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Continues To Fall: Which Airlines Have The Most To Gain? [View article]
    The same in reverse happened to Air Canada when everyone was sending Oil to $150.00. Air Canada hedge between $100.00 and $110, and a few days later, Oil fell at $90, then $80.00.
    The stock crumbled.
    Ouch!
    It is hard for the Airlines (as for anyone) to predict when a top or a bottom is near.
    But could oil seriously rebound in the next months?
    Things have changed a lot since then, mostly because of huge increase in oil production capacity in the US.
    Also because when oil was so high, lots of energy needs have found other sources.
    If US was part of OPEC, would things be different? Would the US accept to reduce production?
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imminent negative surprise in store for Too Big To Fail banks? [View news story]
    This has often been suggested, there are lots of pros and cons articles.
    Separating the commercial from the investment parts of a bank?

    I think that it will only profitable for the shareholders if the bank break down by them selves, and is not imposed by regulations.
    But the break downs plans should be approved for security.
    Dec 3, 2014. 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imminent negative surprise in store for Too Big To Fail banks? [View news story]
    Does this mean: "I'll go out of my house when all criminals come out of jail?"
    Makes sense because there used to be a lot of money to be done with the banks when it was a free for all.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Closed Out My Gold Short [View article]
    Markos,
    you can be sure that I will read your next article: I would never miss such an event.
    But I hope that you will find a convincing reason to show us how gold and oil are linked: I was not theorizing really, just trying to figure out was could have been in the traders heads.
    The link you gave just brought me to your bio, and I think there is a word missing:"manage money with integrity and a clear conscience" I would like to see something like "a quiet mind".
    Because your writing about your fear of terrorism on black Friday, and covering you shorts on gold miners almost in panic would not reassure me to start a fund with you.
    My shorts on gold miners have run for so long that Gold would need to jump 100$ in a day before I would think about covering them!
    Dec 1, 2014. 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Closed Out My Gold Short [View article]
    "I put a hedge in place (VXX) as a protection for invested capital and temporarily closed my gold short for 2 days to be consistent, and to avoid your criticism. "

    So you really do moves in order to avoid criticism?
    Things get worst and worst!
    And to be consistent?

    Yes buying the VXX (in fear of terrorism) was the right thing to do.

    Now do not publish and then ask your readers not to comment!
    Dec 1, 2014. 01:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Closed Out My Gold Short [View article]
    We can't throw stones to one who lives in fear.


    But is such a fear worth a SA article?
    Maybe for the satisfaction of saying, afterwards: "I told you!"


    How are Oil and Gold crashes linked?
    
    Traders probably assume that with the oil price down, Russia and other hit countries will sell gold massively?
    Maybe time to buy both: airlines are certainly buying lots if cheap oil contracts.
    Nov 28, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Take Note: The Swiss Gold Referendum Has Already Changed The Gold Market [View article]
    "I believe Ms. Le Pen, ..., probably has a little bit more insight into the whereabouts of French gold then anybody posting on Seeking Alpha. "

    May I respectfully disagree?

    Whatever she thinks or does if she ever was elected, her move will have little impact on the price of gold.

    I think that gold may go up only if investors think that there is nothing more undervalued.
    (Unless for sure a huge terrorist attack or a global crash)
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terra Nitrogen And The Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry [View article]
    Thank you.
    I was aware of this since long, and I do not look to invest in American stocks for the dividends. But I do check the dividends, because their variations influence the stock price.

    I receive other US incomes, and not only are they taxed very high, but I do not receive the Canadian credit for foreign taxes paid.
    But since the investment was almost free, I am happy to receive those checks once a month.
    Nov 23, 2014. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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