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happyshorter

happyshorter
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  • China's Gold Reserves: A Strong Dose Of Reality [View article]
    "Says whom?" Lots of analysts and financial advisers.

    But not only I do not know why an investor should want to hold gold (as an investment or even as a hedge), I do not know why a country (not talking only about China) would want to accumulate gold.

    The real "power" (economic and politically) will be in the hands of the country that holds the most US dollars.

    Some pundits have also written that China publishing those numbers was a sign that China was going to buy more! Ridiculous.
    China needs cash (understand US dollars) to sustain its markets, and might be selling massively to own more USD.
    Jul 20, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    I wish you good luck.
    I am only sorry that I covered my short before the big fall of Friday.
    No jump up could ever have changed my gain in a loss.

    I have no hope that gold will reach acceptable prices for gold miners, and still less for Kinross.

    I am not such a specialist as the author is.
    But my numerous shorts on Kinross were my most profitable I have ever had, together with my shorts on TC and TCK.
    Jul 18, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Balance Sheet Quirk At Bank Of America [View article]
    Yes the article was long, and the internet generation has a problem in reading articles that are longer then 20 lines.

    But it was worth reading.
    I find that there is noting more difficult to understand (and trust) as the banks reports.
    I understand that the article does not analyze all aspects of BoA report, but you help us see something that very few of us would have been able to detect.
    Thank you for this great article.
    Jul 17, 2015. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross: To Sustain Its Leading Position As One Of The World's Biggest Gold Producers, Has To Replenish Its Mineral Base [View article]
    Thank you for this in depth article.

    I just wonder: why keep investing to produce more gold, when the price of gold seems doomed. (I find you assumption of gold at $1,150 per ounce and not going down, optimistic, but who knows?)

    And if they find copper, good for them, but few people think that the price of copper will go up either.


    I am sorry that I closed by extremely profitable short 2 days ago.
    (I also sold my Alamo shares)
    But I do not understand why one would want to invest in gold.


    This does take anything off the value of your article that is very instructive.
    Jul 15, 2015. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa - Strong Fundamentals, Macro Headwinds Will Blow Over [View article]
    Thanks for this pretty convincing article.

    Could use explain how this could impact AA price:

    Japan aluminium stocks fall for the first time in 15 months
    http://reut.rs/1gBxaCG

    Aluminium is so difficult to understand.
    Jul 15, 2015. 04:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    I admire you honesty.
    It is very hard to take such a big loss.

    But at this point, I guess you are right to hold.

    I just decided to cover my so profitable short on K.
    I am not buying right now, but with the news that came out today, K could jump more then usual if ever gold went up.

    And it could happen sooner then later.

    But if I were you I would not wait till KGC comes back to such heights as when you bought it.
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    3 to 4 years is very long!
    And I agree that if the dollar went up, this would move the metals up.

    You do not say since when you've been long on Kinross, but if you've been long as long as I have been short, it will take a long time for you to recover from your loss.
    If Kinross went to 20 (!), I'd be out of my short for a long time.
    Doesn't mean that I would get long any time: I would buy other companies, (but never large positions), because then others would do fantastic (Like FCX, AGI).
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    I respect your opinion, I am certain that you know the sector very good, and I will take your opinion in consideration

    For sure, I could have shorted many gold companies.
    I preferred to stick to Kinross and increase my short position each time it went up.
    As a shorter, what I like from Kinross is that when gold moves slightly up, Kinross barely moves up as compared to others that jump 5 to 8%.

    I was once short on another gold stock and lost all my gain when it was bought by another one. This is why I stick to Kinross: I might be wrong, but I still think it has little chances to be targeted by another.

    As for gold finding a bottom, I think it will take a very long time.
    So many authors try to correlate the price of gold to this or that.
    I always have the feeling that gold has a life of its own, and geopolitical events or economic events have much less impact on gold as they used to a few years ago.
    If (and this is very improbable) the USD crashed, then yes, this would be very gold for gold lovers.
    Because gold has gone done so much, and the downward slope seems to smoothen, I think you could see a short lived rebound. Then I will cash in my nice gain, which I do about once a year.

    I "hedge" my short with a fund that gives a very high dividend and a modest long position in AGI.

    But even if I had to cover my short, I would "never" buy this one.
    But never say never...
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Energy Is The Next Gay Marriage [View article]
    Thank you Cliff for this very interesting link.
    Jul 11, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    Mr. SomaBull,
    Whatever Mr. Harper position on Russia, if you had to choose between one of the so hundred gold miners: would you really choose Kinross?

    Or are you trying to bump the stock?

    Why do I choose Kinross for my preferred short?

    Because there are so many mergers, but I think Kinross is the last that will be bought by a bigger one.

    Eventually, Russia could swallow it, but I doubt this would be profitable for the shareholders!


    Jul 10, 2015. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinross Gold Is Making A Fortune In Russia [View article]
    I guess you are probably trying to average down.
    Not a good idea to add to a loosing position.

    When gold inches up, all other miners jump, but this one barely moves.
    I got so rich on this short!

    Each time it makes a small attempt to move up, I add to my winning short position.
    Jul 10, 2015. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Will Be Resolved And VXX Will Tank Once More [View article]
    Greek was a storm that had to be settled, there was no doubt that it would be.

    But China is a long term turmoil.

    China can try to prevent its market to keep stumbling by creating funny rules, that doesn't make its economy better, and this won't be settled by leaders of other countries.

    Technically, the US markets were oversold because of the panic.
    Then it renounced maybe in part because of short squeezes.

    But then the harsh reality will come back.
    Last unemployment report was not too good, against what I thought, it seems that there will be a rate hike in 2015.

    The next earning reports will be crucial (Alcoa was not representative).

    I keep a small position of VXX, against a somewhat larger position of SVXY.
    Jul 10, 2015. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Finally Time To Buy Alcoa [View article]
    It was very probable that we would see a bounce back, let it be only for the big short float.

    But is the global economy there to make you think that the very special sector of AA, auto and planes parts, will grow?

    Alcoa " sees strong global aluminum demand growth of 6.5% in 2015."
    I am not so sure: China boosted its stock market, not its economy.
    Other countries may struggle.
    Don't mix oversold and undervalued.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Increasing Confidence In Alcoa [View article]
    In a different context, I could agree with your arguments, and I think that Alcoa could and should do better.
    But Mr.Brandon Dempster has also good argument to think the opposite:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    The almost catastrophic situation in China makes me think that it is a wait and see. (For almost all stocks).
    A short float of almost 5% could help if the results were really convincing.
    For me it is a wait and see.
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony says it will "never" exit mobile, declines to give Morpheus price [View news story]
    Are we seeing the "birth" of a new Blackberry problem?
    Or what has been Microsoft problem too.
    I thought Sony wanted to concentrate in what they are good at, and trim away from costly - even if trying to cut the costs - branches of its business.
    Cut the cost? cut the price? Where will be the margin?

    Sony tries to hunt to many rabbits at the same time, in an economic context that is not favorable.

    Sony needs a new board, that will rethink the company.
    Until then, bye bye.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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