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happyshorter

happyshorter
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  • Get Ready For The Second Round Of The Market Downturn [View article]
    I think that we are out of the panic, and also out of the cheerful rally, where first ALL the stocks went down, and then ALL went up.

    Now we will see a period where the weeds will be separated from the crop.

    Today's market was pulled up by the oil rally (and from the other commodities although gold should not be taken in consideration). But at the same time, the banks went down markedly, which is unusual, and not a very positive sign.

    We are at a point where the market will take its direction not from the US economy that is doing well, but from the other economies: Canada is not doing too good, and the US dollar is so high, so I guess investors will avoid stocks that export a lot to Canada. (This is only an example).
    Europe, China and emerging markets will be crucial.

    Can the US economy pull the whole world up? Maybe.

    But the next down day will probably only solidify the floor.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard Still Looks Like A Short (But I've Been Wrong So Far) [View article]
    I hope that you did not short, at least not yet.
    The promotion to the S&P will give ATVI another good leg up!

    Maybe after the news has been priced in.

    But I have never been successful in my tries to short ATVI.
    Just as I start to have a gain, some kind of a news comes in and kicks me out.

    Better short "unknown" stocks.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    Thank you: you replied before I had to ask my question.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint offers year of free service to DirecTV switchers [View news story]
    Free iPhones changed every year!One year free service!
    Who will pay for all this?
    Softbank again and always?

    The strategy is really hard to understand.
    It looks like a desperate fire sale.
    Aug 27, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Hours Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    Big typo: it is not FXC (up 19.14%) but FCX,Freeport-McMoranmInc
    FXC is the Canadian dollar ETF.
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Artificial Lows From Extreme Shorting Attack Won't Last [View article]
    Can you show us facts to let s believe that "Every central bank except the U.S. is buying gold and so are the populations of all countries except the U.S. "

    If ever this is true, I would say that the US is the only doing the right thing.
    Aug 27, 2015. 04:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Saudi Arabia Cut Production For Iran? Why $70 Oil May Come Sooner Than You Think [View article]
    But Putin is not the only one: each time you see a stock going down, you can hear (or better said read) someone complaining of conspiracy and manipulation.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Saudi Arabia Cut Production For Iran? Why $70 Oil May Come Sooner Than You Think [View article]
    Thanks for the explanation.
    I thought the expression was "elephants in the room"...
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar -8.3% post-earnings; Q3 guidance light, 2015 guidance in-line [View news story]
    I agree that it might be an over reaction.
    To the risk of missing a nice run, I always prefer to have no position when the results come out.
    Even a positive reaction one day can turn to negative the second.

    But we must admit that those results have nothing to rejoice those who like solar growth.
    I do not think that the lost price of oil is completely responsible for those results. Some kind of mismanagement.
    For me it is a wait and see.
    Aug 18, 2015. 05:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Saudi Arabia Cut Production For Iran? Why $70 Oil May Come Sooner Than You Think [View article]
    You say "When" and NOT IF, so you seem pretty sure that they will cut production.
    Why this would be in their best interest?
    As soon as they would, all other producing countries will get rid of their over supply and produce more.

    And I also do not see why you call them gorillas.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint up 3.4% as it introduces plan to upgrade iPhones anytime [View news story]
    Softbank pays the phones?
    Softbank buys back shares that are 30% more expensive as when the program started?
    And Softbank is one of the few Japanese stocks going down this night.

    Watch out, do take part of your gain, because I am not sure if the new strategy will be very profitable.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Saudi Arabia Cut Production For Iran? Why $70 Oil May Come Sooner Than You Think [View article]
    I agree that the Iran event has been not only priced in, but over priced in.
    Iran has been selling its oil on the black markets for months and years, which probably means at lower prices then the market.
    On the other hand I do not buy your theory of "Saudi Arabia Cut Production For Iran"!

    When the Iran deal is voted, there are 2 possibilities: yes or no.
    But the reaction will be the same for oil prices: a rally!

    (In the yes case, Iran will sell more, but will have to sell at market prices: bad for those who bought the cheaper Iran Oil.)

    I doubt that the rally could last: the spiral would spin faster: more digging, more production.
    $65 to $70? Anyone who would buy at $70.00 would become a big looser pretty fast.
    Because this price would mean a frantic increase in supply, but no more demand: so more costs for storage.
    This rally would only be good for solar energy, where production costs gets lower year after year.
    Any oil rally will be promptly sold, as we have seen recently.
    Aug 17, 2015. 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Artificial Lows From Extreme Shorting Attack Won't Last [View article]
    In the past years, I have been short on and off on many, but the most consistent, the one I have been short for so many years (at least 4) is Kinross Gold - KGC (the Canadian stock K).
    I covered my whole position a few weeks ago, and started building a new one a week ago, increasing my position each time there was a mini rally.

    (But many authors on SA disagree with me and have great expectations for Kinross)

    Some were not mainly or exclusively Gold (few are).
    FXC, TCK, (Can: TCK.B) TC (Can: TCM: I covered my TCM short position Thursday and Friday), AGI (apart from a small period when I was long, had some profit when it was upgraded, but turn to a loss very soon)

    I also stay away from other gold miners that I see reacting too positively when gold make a small move up.

    One of the dangers when shorting gold miners are the possible M&A.

    I once lost all my profits on a gold miner short position, when it became the target for a merger.

    But I doubt that any one would want to buy Kinross, except the Russian Government, and this wouldn't be at the share holders interest.


    I hedge with a position in a PRECIOUS METALS & MINING Income fund (MMP.UN) that gives a pretty high dividend paid monthly. Because it is paid monthly it allows me to trade it more often.
    This is not a winning position, but it does move up on the few gold up days
    Aug 16, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Gold Seriously Overreacted To The Expectation Of A U.S. Rate Hike? [View article]
    Well, first, you assume that gold mini rally was in reaction to the expectation of a U.S. rate hike.

    There was so much going around these days that I defy anyone to know for sure why gold went up.
    And no where else as gold to turn to bottom fish. Until recently, the USD had replaced gold as the place to go in case of fear, but the USD was also going down.

    I often say "good has a life of its own, and gives no justification for its movements".

    One thing is sure, a moment, started and was amplified by short covering, by a weaker dollar.
    There are no fundamentals to set a price on gold no serious data on supply and demand: this is all speculation, and one guess is as good as the other one.

    My feeling is that the mini rally is about to end soon.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Artificial Lows From Extreme Shorting Attack Won't Last [View article]
    Strange way to make a short decision.
    What type of return to you expect?

    Are you sour or what?
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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