Seeking Alpha

happyshorter

happyshorter
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View happyshorter's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • BlackBerry: Samsung Takeover Rumors Persist [View article]
    That is true, but the idea is not to buy Samsung shares but Blackberry's shares.
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Samsung Takeover Rumors Persist [View article]
    Sorry, I wrote my comment too fast, I had not seen yours.
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Samsung Takeover Rumors Persist [View article]
    I am not adding my 2 cents.
    Just happy to be long an have added to my position after te "rumor" heated off.
    But I must say that I find the Editor's not hilarious
    "Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks"

    The stock is traded on the TSE (a minor exchange?) and on the Nasdaq (admittedly a minor exchange)
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Do Investors Never Learn From Buyout Rumors? [View article]
    @Simonas @ Iphone:

    Still:
    "There was a noticeable uptick in option buying in $11 calls expiring on February 20 as early as 10:03 a.m. EST"
    http://reut.rs/1KTVmek

    Some people did trade long before the news came out.
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Do Investors Never Learn From Buyout Rumors? [View article]
    @Simonas @ Iphone: Thank you for the correction.
    I guess I did not look to the right places to find the news.
    At least it was neither on my broker's site, nor on Finviz.
    I guess I should also always keep a Reuters window open.

    I saw it only at 4:05 PM.
    Now as for shorting stocks:
    1. Despite my nick, I do not only short,
    2. I don't know what you mean by "you have to be smarter than that": please if you want, give me a shorting lesson.

    Many years ago, I was amongst the firsts to short the then Research in Motion, and everyone told me I was crazy: it had just been named Fastest Growing Company by Fortune.
    One of my best shorts of my life.

    Jan 18, 2015. 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    Great article. Not easy reading, but very informative.

    You did not say a lot about Canadian oil sands. (maybe because the article was already long enough).

    Could you say if you think that things could be still more difficult for the Canadian oil?
    Oil sand is pretty expensive to extract, even if the technology has improved, and also expensive to refine.
    On top of this, because there is so much oil in the US, could even the Republican become less inclined to listen to the Canadian lobbies for the Keystone XL pipeline?
    Jan 16, 2015. 05:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Why Do Investors Never Learn From Buyout Rumors? [View article]
    At the speed where the stock climbed yesterday, it could hardy be "investors" who brought the stock up
    1. Reuters news came only AFTER the markets closed, so some insiders must have spread the news.
    2. I think those were mostly ultrafast computers that traded the stock so fast and so high.
    3. Everything happened in the last 30 minutes of trading: this was certainly planned by those fast traders so that they still had plenty of time to cash in the profits.

    I for one notice it when it had already (yet only) jumped 13%.
    I "lost" many minutes looking for which news could it be.

    On the other hand, I added to my very small position Thursday, because Chen's response was very ambiguous: he denied, but also said that it was it was not the Company's policy to comment on rumors.
    Rumors? Reuters stands by it's news, did not retract or apologize in anyway.
    Take over? Difficult, not too probable.
    Something? Probably.
    Jan 16, 2015. 05:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    I do not quite agree with your first paragraph:
    I think that for oil companies, earnings (meaning bad) won't be big surprises, and the prices are already way under predictions (except for very few).
    Every one has been spooked away by the falling oil prices.

    It is not like banks or other companies where it is very hard to know in advance that things don't go as well as one could think.
    So you might even see positive surprises, especially if the market keeps diving like in the past days (although I think we are close to at least a short term rebound).

    A few gold companies that were beaten down by falling gold prices have surprised everyone when reporting.

    But (like Alcoa this week), a good reporting could still result in a heaving selling.
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Has Turned Down Multiple Buyout Offers? [View article]
    Taking over Blackberry might be difficult, because of Industry Canada Act.
    See:
    Canada Spies May Be Biggest Obstacle to Any BlackBerry Takeover
    http://bit.ly/1sFvCfI

    It would also require the approval of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.

    But any offer (and it is hard to believe that Reuters would spread a total groundless rumor), gives investors the possibility to know what is the "real" value of a company: trying to look in the financial results, reading stupid argumentation between BB and iPhone lovers, speculating (like I often do I muss confess) that a short squeeze would multiply the effect of a "good news" (like happened yesterday), nothing is a better evaluation then a buy offer.

    What make me angry is that some insiders knew and acted on the news before Reuters published after the market closed.
    And did so just minutes before market closed.
    I really hope that there will be an inquiry on this.

    Years ago I sold Nortel (then Northern Telecom) shares for strictly private reasons: my son had asked me to lend him money to buy his first car.
    When I gave the order, my broker tried to convince me not to sell, this was such a great company. I held to my decision and he sold.

    The next day, the shares fell more the 25%: my luck changed to a nightmare: I was harassed to tell who had given me the insider information, how could I sell a stock (considering then twice the $60.00 fees) on which I had only $50.00 gain after owning them for only 5 days? (There was nothing like day trading in that time)

    I had to have my son testify and prove that I know no one working at Northern.
    All this for a poor 100 $45.00 shares!
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: The Restructuring Plan Is Working [View article]
    Thank you for this opinion.

    But usually, especially now and the next months, a "fairly valued" stock has a tendency to go down.
    Until it is really undervalued.
    Which you say it is not.
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Predictions For Gold And Silver [View article]
    Good article, but I think that the relationship between Gold prices and inflation might be a myth, and I would not put it high on my check list (but you also did not put it very high).
    On the other hand, I would put another factor in the check list:
    Who and where are the big buyers?
    Chinese used to invest in property and gold.
    They invest more and more in stocks.
    I am not sure if it will not become the same for Indian gold lovers: a new generation is coming up, that might have different values.

    But since the markets have a tendency to project like you, I feel that, like we are seeing now with some oil stocks, it might be time to slowly accumulate, to already be there when the quick recover happens.
    Jan 12, 2015. 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play A Bounce In Oil. Hint: Not USO [View article]
    A lot of complication for something simple.
    USO and OIL have pretty good reflected the down path of oil.
    Some people are so eager to look sophisticated when they publish on SA.
    Why complicate thing and suggest to buy the rubble?
    Or Tesla?
    When oil goes down, some people say that it is bad for Tesla.

    Only if the reason is that the rich oil companies CEO are less rich!
    Because if I buy a Tesla, I could afford to drive a car with a gas price of $200.00 a barrel.


    I am not saying that those event won't appear in the same time.


    I have made a search for an Oil stock, that had following conditions:
    . good insiders buying,
    . very high short positions (in this case over 25%!)
    . very close to 52 weeks low,
    . acceptable profit margin.
    . last, not the most important, at least one recent upgrade.

    I found AREX, on which a first play gave me over 20% profit in 2 or 3 days last time oil had a dead cat bounce.
    Now I am buying small quantities each time it goes down 3 or 4 %.
    There will be other dead cat bounces once in a while.
    Tesla cost over $200 per share, the other one 5.00$ You can buy a lot for little money.
    Jan 6, 2015. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Get Off This Bus Before It Crashes [View article]
    Yes I read the article, and did not express my-self correctly.

    Yes you speak about Gallagher, but only negatively, to say that he Corporate Governance is questionable.

    The fact that Gallagher owns shares "more equal" then the others doesn't make me any problem: lots of Companies have such special shares, but he also owns lots of the common stock: a 27% drop would be a hard hit for him too.

    After years of investing in STB, France SNCF keeps buying:
    http://bit.ly/1wuLFIo

    Do you think that they do not look at the financial situation and that they would buy, mid-November, thousands of shares at $6.98 if their calculations were similar to yours and expecting the stock to drop to your "reasonable range of between $3.90 and $4.50".

    I do not deny all your arguments, except that they are old news, have been presented in a form or another for years, and already priced in.

    "Borrowing to pay a dividend? " As you admit yourself, lenders must have quite a large confidence in the company to secure credit!

    Thomson Reuters report gives an overall rating of 8, and mean analysts 12 months target is 6.02, with a high at 7.31, and a low at 6.02.

    I have been waiting for such a low since last October

    The only thing that could cause a considerable drop would be a dramatic increase in interests rates.

    If your predictions are for after 2019, the stop could well drop 27% and I'd still be a winner on this stock.

    But as I said, I trade this stock a lot, sell part of my holding when it goes up, put the money aside, and then buy again when it's lower.

    So I do hope that your article scares lots of people who would be afraid to become the Turkey.
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Get Off This Bus Before It Crashes [View article]
    Another author wrote an terrible article on SA (and every where he could publish).Remember Apr. 2 years ago?

    The author was short since a while, and paying the dividends each month was very expensive.
    So he wrote that scary article (much worst then this one) proving that STB could cut its dividend very soon.
    That sent the stock almost 15% down in one or 2 days.
    The Globe and Mail rapidly invited investors to use the opportunity to load up (I almost double my position and the stock went back up quickly): I hope this article does something similar

    In all articles on STB, very little is said about the CEO, which is very important!
    Denis Gallagher is a very good CEO and holds a very large part of the shares, so he does not need a extravagant salary,

    If anything went wrong in the economy, kids would still need to go to school.

    I am in no doubt that the company will keep paying its dividend.

    In case the interest rates would go up in 2015, or the price of gas went up, the stock would probably go down, making the yield still higher.
    STB is mostly a dividend play, I have owned it for years, so my profit is really high.
    Many web sites (The Street in particular) have been rating this stock a SELL, while analyst (according to Reuters report) have a an average12 months target of 6.34 (USD).
    It is best to hold the stock in an account where interest and dividends are tax free.
    For me it is no a SELL, it is somewhere between a HOLD and a BUY, but mostly it is a TRADE.
    I have permanently a sell and a buy order on this stock.
    Because the dividend is paid monthly, it is easy to trade in and out.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    Very informative article.

    In the past 2 weeks, I have started last week to accumulate small quantities of stocks that pay good (and secure) dividends, (and covered Friday all of my energy shorts), because one of these days, they will jump up, and provoke a nice, maybe spectacular short squeeze.

    Even if they do not recover to their peak prices, there will be some gains to do there, while investors are desperately looking for oversold stocks.

    (At the time I am writing, PetroChina CO is up 2.84%)

    I think that the best stocks to buy are the companies that are vertically integrated, (if one has not ethical problem):
    A big drop in oil does not reflect immediately in a big drop in gas.
    On the other hand, a small jump in oil price always results in a big jump in oil prices.

    Even if the Lima summit deal is extremely weak, in the case of a (even limited) rebound in energy prices, some solar stocks will also retake some of their losses.

    Climate change or not, China has a very serious need to clean its air.
    China will keep promoting it's solar industry.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
977 Comments
473 Likes