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happyshorter

happyshorter
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  • The Aging Of The Tech Sector: The Pricing Divergence Of Young And Old Tech Companies [View article]
    I completely agree about the "labeling".
    Yes it is a human need to label, and the less you know "the others", weather they are humans from a different country or race, or stocks, the more you find that they all look alike!

    Too many stocks are classified as technology, and too many technology stocks are compared to each other.
    Even Alibaba is often classified as a technology stock: it is not because it uses internet to sell goods that it s a technology stock!
    Are websites "technology"?
    Are social media "technology"?
    For sure they are so new (relatively to IBM lets say), it is hard to classify them in one of the old categories.
    They are (or close to) media companies: after all, so many newspapers, radios and cables refer to them for their news: "So or so tweeted this message this afternoon": it has become so frequent (and so annoying to my taste, that important political announcements will be made first on twitter.
    Polices and secret service over the world check social media to follow criminals or terrorists.
    But the companies that make those researches possible ARE technology.

    Feb 27, 2015. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Partnership Validates BlackBerry's Staying Power And Could Fuel A Buyout [View article]
    I do not see a buyout, but I don't dismiss it either.
    I like Blackberry, I like Chen, and that enough for me.
    I do not have a precise price target in mind, but I know that this stock is the only one that is a long hold for me: I am usually a short term holder.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Partnership Validates BlackBerry's Staying Power And Could Fuel A Buyout [View article]
    This comment is hard to understand.
    As are the four (at this time) Likes.
    Why should a Google representative comment?
    Did Blackberry comment?
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Plans Favor Bank Of America [View article]
    Mr Kamakis,

    Your article would be more complete if you could come back on the title of your article, and explain why the FED's action would be specifically good for Bank of America and not as much for the other banks.

    Most banks reacted positively when Yellen spoke.
    Why single out BAC?
    Is it because you own it and want to reassure yourself?
    Do you hope to have more impact then Zachs, Argus and Reuters who give BAC only a global rating of 3?

    Just for disclosure, I own none of the big banks.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Plans Favor Bank Of America [View article]
    I know that this kind of comments about Zacks are pretty successful on SA (and probably elsewhere), and I used to think the same.
    But they are not the only ones to issue upgrades and downgrades, and they are more often right then wrong.
    This doesn't mean that you have to act on their recommendations, but you can't ignore them.


    Zachs is not the only one.
    Argus rates BAC only at a HOLD, based on the disappoint last quarter results.


    There were other news that investors did not like:
    The Obama wish that the brokerage industry act in the best interest of their clients (LOL), but this should have affected other major banks too.
    But Zachs also issued a report on JPM and did not downgrade it.


    It is hard to know how much each bank is exposed to oil companies, but the drop in oil might also have been an issue.


    But I think that what investors hate most, is when members of boards leave: 2 on the same day was too many.


    But at the end of the day, technicals were the most important factor: if you look at both charts (BAC and JPM), JPM's chart was much more trust inspiring then BAC's.
    
    Traders can buy on weakness, but only for short term.
    Investors can buy on weakness, but only on pretty long term.


    Feb 27, 2015. 04:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wunderlich lists potential energy movers with strong balance sheets [View news story]
    I have been long on AREX (on and off). My first buy was at 5.85.
    I did not know the company. I ran a scan:
    . Oil
    . Insider buying,
    . Low debt,
    . HIGH Short float.
    . at least on analyst upgrade.
    And there it was.

    Since then there has been on analyst downgrade (on valuation and that type of down grade never has a lasting effect).

    I hope the results won't too bad Wednesday, but since no one has great expectations...
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil's Inventory Problem Dampens Price Recovery [View article]
    I do not understand how you can think that gasoline (is that what you meant?) could collapse to near zero?
    It is true that even at low prices, existing companies must keep producing.

    But they can cut on exploration, sadly cut employees, and sadly eventually cut on dividends.
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil's Inventory Problem Dampens Price Recovery [View article]
    A bracket between 40 and 60 is huge! Who needs more then a $60 oil?

    Lots of companies will profit from every dollar up.

    Some have asked why did Buffet get rid of XOM, selling at a bottom?
    That did not look like a good move.
    My idea is that he thought he had made enough on XOM.
    He instead he put the money in companies that will dramatically go up with a small increase of oil.

    I have covered all my shorts (Suncor mainly) and entered positions in oil.
    For now I am loosing (although last week was only gain), but I hold on. For the Oil sands, Suncor need a really higher price, but with its vertically integrated structure, it can start to make money in its refineries, because by each dollar up, gasoline will go up.
    Short term bullish on oil.
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Analysis Shows Higher Valuation Justifiable For Alcoa Inc. [View article]
    One question: why is FCX always entered as a peer to Alcoa: my understanding is that the companies have extremely little in common, except being in the commodities sector, and even then!

    As an investor, I would stay away from Alcoa: aluminum is too much in the hands of speculators that create artificial low or high supply, rumors of increasing or decreasing demand.

    I trade the stock long and short for very short terms (sometimes only one day) and only based in technicals.

    I wouldn't be able to justify my moves by fundamental analysis.

    Why this recent pull back, when all commodities went up in the past 2 weeks? The sudden oil rebound?
    It seems that Alcoa investors are not really convinced about their investment!

    S&P has a hold rating with a 12 months target of $17.00, which is not very exciting: there seems to be a very strong resistance between 17.00 and 17.25, and for a while, my feeling is that AA will be in the hands of traders who will trade between 15.50 and 16.80, and this could last for quite a while.
    I guess I'll be one of them, I'll have some profits and some losses...

    For anyone ready to spend time (a lot of time) studying the question (not that your article did not try), the best articles that I have read are those from Market realist:
    Analyzing The Aluminum Industry's Key Dynamics
    http://bit.ly/1CCkeQu

    and
    Why Alcoa is transforming from a pure-play aluminum company

    http://bit.ly/1CCkeQw

    They have so many in depth articles, I though I had understood the aluminum industry, and then well... I am not sure anymore.

    I have the feeling this is a mined playground.

    
    Feb 16, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Conservative Investing In The Oil Patch [View article]
    Thank you for this very interesting comment.
    Yes the reversal of the ratio between the USD and the CAD scares me somewhat.
    All Canadian stocks that are traded in both countries suffered, or at least did less well.
    I was expecting the USD bubble to explode one of these days, but I am afraid that it will be bad for all other countries in the world.
    Feb 12, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Conservative Investing In The Oil Patch [View article]
    Thank you for this reply.

    "I do not believe that since 2011 there are any energy unit trusts in Canada."

    Yes, my mistake: since 2011, taxing rules have changed, (this was a hard hit!), and most of them are not called Income trusts like before.
    But they still exist and give high dividends, like Crescent Point that you mention, paid monthly!
    There are still some (BEP.UN -I own this one- PLT.UN - stay away!).

    I think the times are not good for exploration or companies that a related to new developments.
    Better go with well established and low cost operation companies.

    I am pretty much risk taking, but there has to be a possible interesting reward at the key.
    Unfortunately, I am still not convinced about SU, not now.
    But I appreciated your article, I learned a lot.
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Conservative Investing In The Oil Patch [View article]
    @Finding Value,
    I received one comment that replied to one of my questions.

    Still I stay skeptical.
    The second part of my question was:Would you recommend Suncor over other Oil companies? If then which?
    Today, as oil went down, I tried to compare.
    Halliburton went down because it announced big cuts, showing that things were not going well. Now the news is priced in.
    But OXY managed to go up, and it gives a much better dividend as Suncor.
    In Canada, most energy related income trusts went up: ALA.UN, ENF, and others, but Suncor was down, still more in the US.
    For sure the dividends are more attractive in the Income trusts.
    I understand that American prefer to trade Canadian stocks, with the USD being so high.
    But I do not quite understand the interest of Suncor: OK, "TO trader" explained to me that Canada still exports a lot to the US: this, in a time when there is a big demand.

    So what is really attractive now in Suncor? I mean in this context.
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Conservative Investing In The Oil Patch [View article]
    Thank you for this link.
    It really put things in perspective.
    Feb 10, 2015. 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Conservative Investing In The Oil Patch [View article]
    Suncor has always been a feel good stock.
    It was already nice that Suncor did not reduce its dividend.
    From all the oil sand producers, I always thought this stock was the best, mainly - as you point out - because it is highly diversified and vertically integrated.

    The stock like all oil stocks has been doing well in the past 2 weeks.

    But even if the production costs are less then they were, they are still higher then elsewhere, or for other sources.
    If the price of oil goes higher, rigs will start again in the US.

    Suncor still plans to expand production
    But it must also sell.
    My question is: to whom will they sell?
    The US is very close to be auto sufficient.
    Europe and China get there oil cheaper if they buy it from the mid-east and Russia.
    It is rumored that the US interdiction to export American oil could be lifted.
    Canada alone is not big enough: the taxes on gasoline are so heavy that as soon as the price go up, the Canadians who can start to save again.

    Who are Canadian oil big clients?
    Would you recommend Suncor over other big oil producers? If yes, which ones would set lower then Suncor?

    Thank you for your kind reply.
    Feb 9, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TELUS Is Communicating A Higher Stock Price [View article]
    The other good news is that Telus is based in the beloved Province of Stephen Harper.
    The last measures that he took was to revive the Province that used to be Canada's richest, and had a steep decline with the price of oil: if Harper succeeds in controlling the unemployment in that Province, you'll see many news Telus users.
    He will do everything he can, because it is voters base.
    Maybe he does not do it so much for Telus, but Telus will profit from higher oil prices, when ever it comes.
    Jan 28, 2015. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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