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happyshorter

happyshorter
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  • The Energy Sector - Risk Or Opportunity? The S&P 500 2015: Part 2 [View article]
    I do not quite agree with your first paragraph:
    I think that for oil companies, earnings (meaning bad) won't be big surprises, and the prices are already way under predictions (except for very few).
    Every one has been spooked away by the falling oil prices.

    It is not like banks or other companies where it is very hard to know in advance that things don't go as well as one could think.
    So you might even see positive surprises, especially if the market keeps diving like in the past days (although I think we are close to at least a short term rebound).

    A few gold companies that were beaten down by falling gold prices have surprised everyone when reporting.

    But (like Alcoa this week), a good reporting could still result in a heaving selling.
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Has Turned Down Multiple Buyout Offers? [View article]
    Taking over Blackberry might be difficult, because of Industry Canada Act.
    See:
    Canada Spies May Be Biggest Obstacle to Any BlackBerry Takeover
    http://bit.ly/1sFvCfI

    It would also require the approval of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.

    But any offer (and it is hard to believe that Reuters would spread a total groundless rumor), gives investors the possibility to know what is the "real" value of a company: trying to look in the financial results, reading stupid argumentation between BB and iPhone lovers, speculating (like I often do I muss confess) that a short squeeze would multiply the effect of a "good news" (like happened yesterday), nothing is a better evaluation then a buy offer.

    What make me angry is that some insiders knew and acted on the news before Reuters published after the market closed.
    And did so just minutes before market closed.
    I really hope that there will be an inquiry on this.

    Years ago I sold Nortel (then Northern Telecom) shares for strictly private reasons: my son had asked me to lend him money to buy his first car.
    When I gave the order, my broker tried to convince me not to sell, this was such a great company. I held to my decision and he sold.

    The next day, the shares fell more the 25%: my luck changed to a nightmare: I was harassed to tell who had given me the insider information, how could I sell a stock (considering then twice the $60.00 fees) on which I had only $50.00 gain after owning them for only 5 days? (There was nothing like day trading in that time)

    I had to have my son testify and prove that I know no one working at Northern.
    All this for a poor 100 $45.00 shares!
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa: The Restructuring Plan Is Working [View article]
    Thank you for this opinion.

    But usually, especially now and the next months, a "fairly valued" stock has a tendency to go down.
    Until it is really undervalued.
    Which you say it is not.
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Predictions For Gold And Silver [View article]
    Good article, but I think that the relationship between Gold prices and inflation might be a myth, and I would not put it high on my check list (but you also did not put it very high).
    On the other hand, I would put another factor in the check list:
    Who and where are the big buyers?
    Chinese used to invest in property and gold.
    They invest more and more in stocks.
    I am not sure if it will not become the same for Indian gold lovers: a new generation is coming up, that might have different values.

    But since the markets have a tendency to project like you, I feel that, like we are seeing now with some oil stocks, it might be time to slowly accumulate, to already be there when the quick recover happens.
    Jan 12, 2015. 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play A Bounce In Oil. Hint: Not USO [View article]
    A lot of complication for something simple.
    USO and OIL have pretty good reflected the down path of oil.
    Some people are so eager to look sophisticated when they publish on SA.
    Why complicate thing and suggest to buy the rubble?
    Or Tesla?
    When oil goes down, some people say that it is bad for Tesla.

    Only if the reason is that the rich oil companies CEO are less rich!
    Because if I buy a Tesla, I could afford to drive a car with a gas price of $200.00 a barrel.


    I am not saying that those event won't appear in the same time.


    I have made a search for an Oil stock, that had following conditions:
    . good insiders buying,
    . very high short positions (in this case over 25%!)
    . very close to 52 weeks low,
    . acceptable profit margin.
    . last, not the most important, at least one recent upgrade.

    I found AREX, on which a first play gave me over 20% profit in 2 or 3 days last time oil had a dead cat bounce.
    Now I am buying small quantities each time it goes down 3 or 4 %.
    There will be other dead cat bounces once in a while.
    Tesla cost over $200 per share, the other one 5.00$ You can buy a lot for little money.
    Jan 6, 2015. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Get Off This Bus Before It Crashes [View article]
    Yes I read the article, and did not express my-self correctly.

    Yes you speak about Gallagher, but only negatively, to say that he Corporate Governance is questionable.

    The fact that Gallagher owns shares "more equal" then the others doesn't make me any problem: lots of Companies have such special shares, but he also owns lots of the common stock: a 27% drop would be a hard hit for him too.

    After years of investing in STB, France SNCF keeps buying:
    http://bit.ly/1wuLFIo

    Do you think that they do not look at the financial situation and that they would buy, mid-November, thousands of shares at $6.98 if their calculations were similar to yours and expecting the stock to drop to your "reasonable range of between $3.90 and $4.50".

    I do not deny all your arguments, except that they are old news, have been presented in a form or another for years, and already priced in.

    "Borrowing to pay a dividend? " As you admit yourself, lenders must have quite a large confidence in the company to secure credit!

    Thomson Reuters report gives an overall rating of 8, and mean analysts 12 months target is 6.02, with a high at 7.31, and a low at 6.02.

    I have been waiting for such a low since last October

    The only thing that could cause a considerable drop would be a dramatic increase in interests rates.

    If your predictions are for after 2019, the stop could well drop 27% and I'd still be a winner on this stock.

    But as I said, I trade this stock a lot, sell part of my holding when it goes up, put the money aside, and then buy again when it's lower.

    So I do hope that your article scares lots of people who would be afraid to become the Turkey.
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Transportation: Get Off This Bus Before It Crashes [View article]
    Another author wrote an terrible article on SA (and every where he could publish).Remember Apr. 2 years ago?

    The author was short since a while, and paying the dividends each month was very expensive.
    So he wrote that scary article (much worst then this one) proving that STB could cut its dividend very soon.
    That sent the stock almost 15% down in one or 2 days.
    The Globe and Mail rapidly invited investors to use the opportunity to load up (I almost double my position and the stock went back up quickly): I hope this article does something similar

    In all articles on STB, very little is said about the CEO, which is very important!
    Denis Gallagher is a very good CEO and holds a very large part of the shares, so he does not need a extravagant salary,

    If anything went wrong in the economy, kids would still need to go to school.

    I am in no doubt that the company will keep paying its dividend.

    In case the interest rates would go up in 2015, or the price of gas went up, the stock would probably go down, making the yield still higher.
    STB is mostly a dividend play, I have owned it for years, so my profit is really high.
    Many web sites (The Street in particular) have been rating this stock a SELL, while analyst (according to Reuters report) have a an average12 months target of 6.34 (USD).
    It is best to hold the stock in an account where interest and dividends are tax free.
    For me it is no a SELL, it is somewhere between a HOLD and a BUY, but mostly it is a TRADE.
    I have permanently a sell and a buy order on this stock.
    Because the dividend is paid monthly, it is easy to trade in and out.
    Dec 24, 2014. 03:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    Very informative article.

    In the past 2 weeks, I have started last week to accumulate small quantities of stocks that pay good (and secure) dividends, (and covered Friday all of my energy shorts), because one of these days, they will jump up, and provoke a nice, maybe spectacular short squeeze.

    Even if they do not recover to their peak prices, there will be some gains to do there, while investors are desperately looking for oversold stocks.

    (At the time I am writing, PetroChina CO is up 2.84%)

    I think that the best stocks to buy are the companies that are vertically integrated, (if one has not ethical problem):
    A big drop in oil does not reflect immediately in a big drop in gas.
    On the other hand, a small jump in oil price always results in a big jump in oil prices.

    Even if the Lima summit deal is extremely weak, in the case of a (even limited) rebound in energy prices, some solar stocks will also retake some of their losses.

    Climate change or not, China has a very serious need to clean its air.
    China will keep promoting it's solar industry.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    I agree: if some energy investors have not yet sold (and shorted), it is too late. And it might be the right time to cover the shorts.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Gold-Futures Speculators Finally Hit Shorting Exhaustion [View article]
    There was a short lived short-squeeze, but it was a good occasion to short again!
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Recovery Of iShares Silver Trust ETF Came To A Halt - What Is Next? [View article]
    I am sorry if I an out of topics, but why are there employment reports "non-farm payroll".
    I keep asking everywhere and never get a reply.
    Who counts the farm "payroll", if one can speak of payroll.
    Is it because one would have to consider how many illegal immigrants work, and take them into account?
    They do participate in the economy, legal or not.
    Is there another reason?
    We can't say that it is because it is seasonal, because lots of other jobs (hotels, retail) are also seasonal.

    Thank you.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Should Go Up Instead Of Down [View article]
    I don't know if this is a good news!
    "Ford Otosan aims to sell its products to Russian state-run companies, such as Gazprom, which prefer Russian-made trucks, and to overcome the 10 percent import tax, which is demanded by Russian authorities for vehicles produced abroad. "
    Is Turkey "abroad?
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thompson Creek Metals: A Huge Upside Potential [View article]
    You are making big assumptions, especially about the easy task of refinancing the debt!
    Who would like to refinance in the conditions that we are going through, and that are not seeming to want to get better.

    Would you refinance this company? It could go bankrupt anytime.
    There are lots of miners that will need refinancing.
    Those who have a lot of cash can hedge, but I doubt that TC can.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Continues To Fall: Which Airlines Have The Most To Gain? [View article]
    The same in reverse happened to Air Canada when everyone was sending Oil to $150.00. Air Canada hedge between $100.00 and $110, and a few days later, Oil fell at $90, then $80.00.
    The stock crumbled.
    Ouch!
    It is hard for the Airlines (as for anyone) to predict when a top or a bottom is near.
    But could oil seriously rebound in the next months?
    Things have changed a lot since then, mostly because of huge increase in oil production capacity in the US.
    Also because when oil was so high, lots of energy needs have found other sources.
    If US was part of OPEC, would things be different? Would the US accept to reduce production?
    Dec 8, 2014. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imminent negative surprise in store for Too Big To Fail banks? [View news story]
    This has often been suggested, there are lots of pros and cons articles.
    Separating the commercial from the investment parts of a bank?

    I think that it will only profitable for the shareholders if the bank break down by them selves, and is not imposed by regulations.
    But the break downs plans should be approved for security.
    Dec 3, 2014. 03:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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