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User 353732

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  • Why Kinder Morgan Is Safe To Buy Despite Low Oil Prices [View article]
    KMI has 3 competitive features that make it attractive as a multi year growth company: scale that creates efficiency; scope that reduces risk; and good management that can deploy scale and scope to create real wealth.

    The faster oil prices fall, the faster they will rise: capital flows now respond quickly and either direction for oil prices carries in the seed of its reversal. Oil prices are never stable; they are either too high , which stimulates over investment or too low which stimulates under investment.
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras - Convergence Of Tailwinds [View article]
    Petrobras is a product and part of Brazilian collectivism, xenophobia, elitism and kleptocracy.

    Brazil's great oil resources will now be developed far slower, more expensively and with less safety than was anticipated even a year ago. Indeed in 2015 Brazil might even see a decline in output. Brazil's citizens have been ill served indeed by its Bosses. Brazil has the potential to be a very prosperous and influential global polity wont be with its current political and institutional structures and habits.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Impressive Dividend, But Little Capital Appreciation Potential At Current Price [View article]
    At current oil prices global consumption will be somewhat higher than at $100 oil and global investments in E&P will be lower for projects scheduled for the second half of 2015 and 2016 leading to substantially lower growth in liquids production, worldwide, in 9 to 12 months than was expected a just a few weeks ago. In parallel, political pressure on Saudi Arabia from a majority of OPEC members will escalate visibly.

    The combination of forces will likely cause oil prices to rise abruptly(and excessively) in the second half of 2015 in anticipation of a much tighter market. Should this happen COP will be viewed as a substantially more valuable company than in late NOV 2014.
    Nov 20, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone XL Not Needed For The Canadian Oil Sands [View article]
    Keystone will be approved by Congress next year but the Executive Branch will block it until a new Executive in a couple of years understands that the strategic value of Keystone for America is to displace all heavy oil imports from Venezuela .
    Then Keystone will begin construction. The strategic and economic forces that make Keystone desirable are greater than the political forces and calculations of a specific Executive.
    Of course, until Keystone is built crude by rail to the US from Canada will continue to grow at impressive rates: a second order effect that opponents of Canadian oil development did not foresee.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Partners gains ahead of merger vote [View news story]
    The new Kinder Morgan has the potential to be a formidable generator of wealth for the balance of this decade, particularly if oil exports are approved and LNG exports attain critical mass.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duke Energy Will Not Run With The Bull Market [View article]
    Generally a company such as DUK can be expected to return an average of 8% per year, via a combination of dividends and stock appreciation. Returns notably above the trend in some years will be offset by below normal returns in other years.

    Given the appreciation in DUK stock over the past 2 years, it is unreasonable to expect further gains in the stock price in 2015; indeed a small retraction might be likely. The greatest threat DUK faces is from Wash Dc and its assault on the coal industry.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental's California spinoff trading lower than expected [View news story]
    Why would an informed, rational retail investor want to own oil and gas assets in California, where the political risk is greater than in Argentina for such assets?
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: A Stock For Income Seekers [View article]
    SO has the best demographic footprint, regulatory environment and organic growth prospects of any major utility but its generating portfolio is under ideological assault by Wash DC and California Billionaires.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport LNG secures DoE approval, clears last regulatory hurdle [View news story]
    Free trade in all forms of energy is good for both American workers and companies and port authorities and for consumers in importing nations.

    The most competitive place in the world today for new LNG facilities is the US Gulf. Several more need to be built.
    Free trade in oil is the next obvious and logical development and "policy by waiver and exemptions" is the most likely path over the next 2 years.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude tumbles below $75, oil stocks swirl lower [View news story]
    The faster prices move up or down the swifter the counter reaction. What form this counter reaction will take we do not know but rapid oil price movements almost always beget rapid reversals.
    The Saudis have the power and maybe the will to engage in a market share war via price but with oil the Saudis are not merely engaged in a commercial war against North American producers( who, being rational, will cut capex to conserve cash and delay projects scheduled for 2015 and beyond) but in a political and ideological war against Iran and Russia.
    The latter have the penchant and capacity to engage in real war via terrorism, subversion and sabotage. The more financially desperate Russia and Iran become the greater the risk to the Saudis that they will instigate instability and violence in Eastern Saudi Arabia where both the oil and the disenfranchised religious minorities are.
    Quite often economic violence leads to political violence.
    Nov 13, 2014. 04:05 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally in utility stocks "getting long in the teeth" [View news story]
    Retail money fled from Midstream MLPs in Oct in unwarranted panic to utilities as a haven . Now that the MLPs are recovering nicely retail money is moving out of utilities into MLPs. The utility strength was and is as unwarranted as MLP weakness. Not that one should not own and hold utilities(quite the contrary) but total utility returns cannot rival MLP returns: 2 different risk/return profiles and two very different growth rates.
    Nov 12, 2014. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst sees continued rise in MLP distributions [View news story]
    Lower oil prices are self correcting. There will be some modest rise in consumption at current prices and within a few months a modest fall in production from Russia, Mexico, Brazil and perhaps Nigeria and Venezuela as cash flow constraints reduce the drilling needed to offset natural decline. Tar sands growth in Canada is likely to be substantially lower.
    If so, then prices will recover to levels enough to support continued growth in upstream capex in the US for liquids. Natural gas production will continue to grow in the Utica and Marcellus as long as the forward one year strip stays near $4/mmbtu
    Nov 11, 2014. 03:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum: The TMS Is Making Steady Progress [View article]
    GDP has good( unfortunately high cost) wells but a very poor balance sheet. The question for investors is whether GDP can increase its borrowing capacity based on these to avoid a liquidity crisis or will it have to sell to another company with a stronger balance sheet. At $90 oil GDP is attractive, of course, and oil will again reach that price but not in the near future.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips announces second oil discovery off Senegal [View news story]
    Africa is so little explored that we still have little idea of how great its oil and gas potential is.
    As Nigeria becomes politically unstable and hostile to foreign capital other parts of Africa are becoming more inviting and inevitably capital and technology are going where they are welcome.
    Nov 10, 2014. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips' Revenue Dips As Oil Market Remains Volatile [View article]
    Investors will reward cash conservation because liquidity is an important competitive advantage in the current environment and a powerful indicator that Management will not pursue growth at any cost. Empty growth is a wealth destroyer, not a wealth creator.
    When prices are above $100/bbl many investors demand volume growth. When prices are below $80/bbl these same investors demand operational and organizational efficiency. Fear replaces greed very quickly indeed.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment