Stocks And Presidential Scandals: Reflecting On Watergate, Iran-Contra And Monica Lewinsky [View article]
Those were scandals...what we have today is systematic trampling of personal and property rights of scores of millions of ordinary people on a pervasive scale. The sandals of the then American Republic were very minor compared to the tyranny of the present US Soviet.
Natural Gas: The Fastest Growing Transportation Fuel In The U.S. [View article]
Very fast growth on a tiny base does not presage a strategic shift. For natural gas to become a major transportation fuel there will have to be huge investments in GTL technologies to leverage off the exiting and deeply entrenched liquid fuel infrastructure. Given that each such commercial facility can require over $10 billion the technological and regulatory risks will have to substantially mitigated. However, if GTL is ,in fact, financially compelling, then indeed such plants will be constructed, probably in Louisiana and Texas and maybe Pennsylvania....but not quite yet.
4 Market Risks Worth Worrying About [View article]
If it were a "market" that actually mediated risk and reward and honestly allocated risk and resources then indeed the 4 factors would be worth considering....but it is an engine of manipulation designed to enrich Big Money via disinformation; asymmetric technological advantages; abuse of inside information and preferential access to virtually unlimited free credit.
Stealth Recession Leading Indicators Disconnected [View article]
The recession is hardly invisible for millions of middle class households for whom effective purchasing power and net worth have been stagnant or declining for the past 5 years.
For millions more who have suffered downward mobility in real income; job prospects, skills and net worth a recession would be an improvement since they are enduring a depression. This is tragically even more true for recent college graduates whose human capital and global competitiveness erodes by the month from mis-employment underemployment or unemployment.
Energy Inventories Higher Than Expected [View article]
There is a transient mismatch between rapidly growing oil(crude, NGL) production in North America and logistical capacity. Naturally this leads to volatility and sharp discounts. However, rail is debottlenecking choke points and increased pipeline capacity is being built. Within two to three years the principal choke points will have been relieved to a substantial extent even as production rises by another 2 million barrels per day of crude and NGLs. Choke points are temporary bad news for strategic investors while impressive production and expanding reserves are long term good news
Even Japanese stocks are subject to the law of gravity (who knew?) as a confluence of factors sends the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) plunging 7.3% on the session (the swing from intraday high to low was ~9%). Yields on JGB 10s (JGBL) spiked above 1% at one point as an already skittish and volatile market was further rattled by what have generally been perceived as hawkish comments out of Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials on Wednesday. Yields pulled back in late trading. Compounding the problem for Japanese stocks was the yen (FXY), which has strengthened some 2% against the dollar to 101.16 most recently. (See also: China HSBC flash PMI shows contraction) [View news story]
Japan's stock "market" is just as much an engine of manipulation as any other in the world. It is also just as decoupled from the real economy of ordinary people as the markets in the US, Europe and China.
China Continues To Cut Out The Middle Man - The Dollar [View article]
Many in the Global South know what ordinary Americans do not : the dollar is fiat, not real, money and the US Regime systematically abuses the dollar's transient role as a reserve currency. The Chinese, Russians, Indians realize that the dollar will not be a reserve currency for much longer and are preparing for that time. Ordinary Indians and Chinese also know another big thing: no national currency today is real money ,which is why they have trusted gold for a very long time and continue to do so.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Fractional Gain To A New High [View article]
It is by no means a new high in terms of purchasing power, which is why people own equities. It is just money illusion caused by a debasing currency to see index as reaching record levels. The dollar is a shrinking metric.
Global Stock Markets In Serious Denial [View article]
There are no honest equity, credit or currency "markets" in the major economies of the world today. They have become engines of manipulation that benefit the few and are decoupled from the real economies and lives of the ordinary many.
Such perversions have no predictive content and do not honestly or efficiently allocate resources to their best use nor do they properly mediate between risk and rewards.
Housing: The Risk Of Rising Home Prices And Mortgage Rates [View article]
Bad money combined with the access Big Money (including foreign Big Money) has to limitless almost free credit has led to housing become another "yield" product---a naked bet on rising rents. The effective purchasing power of most households is stagnant or declining, the labor force participation rate is at about a 35 year low and the home ownership rate keeps falling: hardly the fundamentals to support brisk growth in single family home prices. Wall St and the FED is engineering another bubble because bubbles are what benefit Big Money and Big Government .
Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
It is worth noting that the IEA has never been right in its medium and longer term forecasts and rarely correct in its short term forecasts. Oil is not only a vital commodity but also proto money and a geo-strategic barometer of risk. Its price is thus a function of more than current supply/demand balances. Indeed the price is an imponderable given that geo strategic risk in all parts of world is increasing and people are increasingly seeking real money to protect purchasing power.
Will The Natural Gas Rally Continue? [View article]
Natural gas has been and still is highly seasonal and volatile. Weather is still a dominant influence.
Any sustained rise in real natural gas prices depends on two factors: a structural increase in domestic use from power generation; petrochemicals/fertili... and transportation and material exports to Asia and Europe. Both will occur but not this year. Natural gas is a long term strategic investment for people who have a horizon of a decade or more(in addition to being a very short term trader's market at all times).
Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
When fear rules no good news is considered good enough and when greed rules no bad news is considered worthy of notice. Big Money is now so adept at manipulating both information and "markets" that emotions rather than analysis has become the herd's way of allocating money.
This is why many small investors who have the with and time to think and invest for themselves no longer pay much heed to Wall St or Big Government or Big Media "data" and pronouncements and focus instead on a relatively few companies in industries or geographies that understand very well.
Directors at Chesapeake Energy (CHK) recruit Anadarko (APC) senior VP of international and deep-water operations Robert Douglas Lawler to succeed Aubrey McClendon as CEO, WSJ says. Lawler, a seasoned industry veteran, will join CHK on June 17 and says he "looks forward to generating value for shareholders in the years ahead." Besides plugging a multi-billion dollar gap between the company's spending and cash flow, Lawler's greatest challenge might be dealing with McClendon, whose contractual well investment rights mean he will likely be a part of the picture at CHK even if he isn't at the helm. [View news story]
1. It is never good for shareholders when the ousted founder continues to a be a large shadow presence at a company because he still believes himself to be the "real" and irreplaceable source of value
2. Shareholders might be best served by the CHK either substantially limiting its focus to a few basins where it can be a very major player or selling the company to a much larger entity that has the financial and organizational capacity to monetize the vast lease and potential drilling positions within CHK's portfolio
The Myth Of Liquidity And Bubbles In Financial Markets [View article]
Sustained currency debasement in all major economies is an important driver. In nominal terms the prices of real assets(those that are proven stores of value or wealth creating capacity) must rise to maintain purchasing power. It is money illusion that makes many people believe that real asset prices have greatly appreciated....
Stocks And Presidential Scandals: Reflecting On Watergate, Iran-Contra And Monica Lewinsky [View article]
The sandals of the then American Republic were very minor compared to the tyranny of the present US Soviet.
Natural Gas: The Fastest Growing Transportation Fuel In The U.S. [View article]
For natural gas to become a major transportation fuel there will have to be huge investments in GTL technologies to leverage off the exiting and deeply entrenched liquid fuel infrastructure.
Given that each such commercial facility can require over $10 billion the technological and regulatory risks will have to substantially mitigated.
However, if GTL is ,in fact, financially compelling, then indeed such plants will be constructed, probably in Louisiana and Texas and maybe Pennsylvania....but not quite yet.
4 Market Risks Worth Worrying About [View article]
Stealth Recession Leading Indicators Disconnected [View article]
For millions more who have suffered downward mobility in real income; job prospects, skills and net worth a recession would be an improvement since they are enduring a depression.
This is tragically even more true for recent college graduates whose human capital and global competitiveness erodes by the month from mis-employment underemployment or unemployment.
Energy Inventories Higher Than Expected [View article]
However, rail is debottlenecking choke points and increased pipeline capacity is being built. Within two to three years the principal choke points will have been relieved to a substantial extent even as production rises by another 2 million barrels per day of crude and NGLs.
Choke points are temporary bad news for strategic investors while impressive production and expanding reserves are long term good news
Even Japanese stocks are subject to the law of gravity (who knew?) as a confluence of factors sends the Nikkei (EWJ, DXJ) plunging 7.3% on the session (the swing from intraday high to low was ~9%). Yields on JGB 10s (JGBL) spiked above 1% at one point as an already skittish and volatile market was further rattled by what have generally been perceived as hawkish comments out of Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials on Wednesday. Yields pulled back in late trading. Compounding the problem for Japanese stocks was the yen (FXY), which has strengthened some 2% against the dollar to 101.16 most recently. (See also: China HSBC flash PMI shows contraction) [View news story]
China Continues To Cut Out The Middle Man - The Dollar [View article]
The Chinese, Russians, Indians realize that the dollar will not be a reserve currency for much longer and are preparing for that time.
Ordinary Indians and Chinese also know another big thing: no national currency today is real money ,which is why they have trusted gold for a very long time and continue to do so.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Fractional Gain To A New High [View article]
It is just money illusion caused by a debasing currency to see index as reaching record levels.
The dollar is a shrinking metric.
Global Stock Markets In Serious Denial [View article]
They have become engines of manipulation that benefit the few and are decoupled from the real economies and lives of the ordinary many.
Such perversions have no predictive content and do not honestly or efficiently allocate resources to their best use nor do they properly mediate between risk and rewards.
Housing: The Risk Of Rising Home Prices And Mortgage Rates [View article]
The effective purchasing power of most households is stagnant or declining, the labor force participation rate is at about a 35 year low and the home ownership rate keeps falling: hardly the fundamentals to support brisk growth in single family home prices.
Wall St and the FED is engineering another bubble because bubbles are what benefit Big Money and Big Government .
Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
Oil is not only a vital commodity but also proto money and a geo-strategic barometer of risk. Its price is thus a function of more than current supply/demand balances. Indeed the price is an imponderable given that geo strategic risk in all parts of world is increasing and people are increasingly seeking real money to protect purchasing power.
Will The Natural Gas Rally Continue? [View article]
Any sustained rise in real natural gas prices depends on two factors: a structural increase in domestic use from power generation; petrochemicals/fertili... and transportation and material exports to Asia and Europe.
Both will occur but not this year.
Natural gas is a long term strategic investment for people who have a horizon of a decade or more(in addition to being a very short term trader's market at all times).
Bull Market Speed Bump #1: All News Is Good News (Confirmation Bias) [View article]
Big Money is now so adept at manipulating both information and "markets" that emotions rather than analysis has become the herd's way of allocating money.
This is why many small investors who have the with and time to think and invest for themselves no longer pay much heed to Wall St or Big Government or Big Media "data" and pronouncements and focus instead on a relatively few companies in industries or geographies that understand very well.
Directors at Chesapeake Energy (CHK) recruit Anadarko (APC) senior VP of international and deep-water operations Robert Douglas Lawler to succeed Aubrey McClendon as CEO, WSJ says. Lawler, a seasoned industry veteran, will join CHK on June 17 and says he "looks forward to generating value for shareholders in the years ahead." Besides plugging a multi-billion dollar gap between the company's spending and cash flow, Lawler's greatest challenge might be dealing with McClendon, whose contractual well investment rights mean he will likely be a part of the picture at CHK even if he isn't at the helm. [View news story]
2. Shareholders might be best served by the CHK either substantially limiting its focus to a few basins where it can be a very major player or selling the company to a much larger entity that has the financial and organizational capacity to monetize the vast lease and potential drilling positions within CHK's portfolio
The Myth Of Liquidity And Bubbles In Financial Markets [View article]
In nominal terms the prices of real assets(those that are proven stores of value or wealth creating capacity) must rise to maintain purchasing power.
It is money illusion that makes many people believe that real asset prices have greatly appreciated....