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User 353732

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  • ConocoPhillips - Well-Positioned As Recent Correction Increases Appeal [View article]
    COP is the best positioned of the Super Independents. It is now in a better position to make acquisitions in the US than it was 2 months ago relative to its peers.
    Oct 31 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands posts sharp profit decline [View news story]
    The most vulnerable investments today at $80 WTI ( much lower of course in Canada at the well head) are Canadian sands, Russian Arctic, Brazilian offshore and Argentine shale as well as planned LNG projects in Australia, Indonesia and planned Iranian pipeline exports of natural gas : far more than US shale or deepwater GOM
    Oct 31 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada‚Äôs western provinces push for lighter tax load in LNG investments [View news story]
    Canada is about to miss its window of opportunity to be a significant LNG exporter.
    The most competitive LNG facilities in world now are those being constructed or in advanced planning stages in the US Gulf Coast
    Oct 31 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon posts strong Q3 as refining improvement helps offset lower production [View news story]
    XOM integrated business model = Patient wealth accumulation + Protection against volatility + Dividends maintain purchasing power
    Oct 31 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magellan Midstream Partners beats by $0.05, beats on revenue [View news story]
    MMP is perhaps the best managed and financially muscular midstream entity in the industry with substantial growth ahead despite the current panic about liquids prices.
    Oct 31 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Eagle Rock Energy Partners Restarts Distribution Payments [View article]
    EROC will have to reconfigure its asset portfolio: sell high cash flow but rapid decline properties for lower cash flow but modest decline fields. Only then will it have the asset profile to provide a consistent 8 to 9 % yield at current prices or a 6 to 7 % distribution yield at north of $4.50/unit assuming a large enough reduction in the number of units outstanding.
    Oct 29 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $80 crude no cause for major concern, oil producer CEOs say [View news story]
    Oil prices are volatile, unpredictable and cyclical. The industry knows this well and has generally learned how to adjust strategy and tactics.
    During the down cycle there is innovation, diffusion of best practices, organizational purging of inefficiencies and weak managements, consolidation ,cash conservation and slow growth.

    During the upcycle there is rapid expansion of capital spending on all activities, much hiring, rapid volumetric growth, new entry and rapid wealth creation.

    Wall St manufactures huge volatility and profits for itself by grossly exaggerating the consequences of both the down and up cycle. It stampedes small investors into imprudent selling on the down and imprudent buying on the up.

    Experienced and informed retail investors usually know this and many invest over several cycles, enduring the pain of 50 to 65 % drops in value of individual stocks( sometimes even more for a small cap) during the downcycle and relishing the 200 to 400 % or much more ( for a small cap)increases in the value of these stocks during the upcycle. The mega caps drop the least but also gain the least while the small caps are amplified bets on the price of liquids and natural gas and management ability.

    The faster we see $75 WTI , the quicker we will see $95 WTI.
    Oct 28 01:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indonesia says Chevron gas project set back by up to two years [View news story]
    Given the rapid capital and operating cost escalation in mega oil and gas projects worldwide this delay is likely good for Chevron especially as near term cash flows are reduced by the lower price of oil.
    Oct 28 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman cuts oil services stocks as it lowers pricing outlook [View news story]
    Retail investors who outsource their decision making to Wall ST will also end up transferring wealth to Big Money.
    Wall St "research" is designed to generate transactional and trading income for inside big money by manufacturing volatility and stampeding outside little money.
    Oct 27 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK to acquire Permian Basin NGL assets from Chevron for ~$800M [View news story]
    Good for both entities. Helps OKS position itself for the coming Midstream MLP consolidation and liberates cash for CVX to invest in its strategic core.

    The performance gap between the Big 5 Midstream MLPs and the rest will likely widen considerably over the next 15 months as investors seek protection from volatility and the assurance of total returns in the 8 to 9 % range.
    Oct 27 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental Petroleum Needs To Go Shopping [View article]
    Rather than go shopping OXY needs to purify its business model and invest heavily in best of class shale technologies for developing its impressive Permian Basin position. OXY needs to materially enhance its organizational capacity to increase IP rates and EURs in the Permian.
    Oct 24 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crestwood Midstream declares $0.41/share quarterly dividend [View news story]
    CMLP is unloved by investors despite its good business position. An exit via a sale to one of the top 5 Midstream MLPs may be best for shareholders.
    Oct 24 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn Virginia Corporation Announces Borrowing Base Increase to $500 Million and Financial Liquidity in Excess of $620 Million [View article]
    For medium sized producers with balance sheet strength this is an opportune time, in the current cycle, to buy expiring leases and nervous small producers with good drilling prospects but cash flow concerns.
    Oct 24 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: What Happened To The Backwardation? [View article]
    The question to ponder is
    How swift will the supply response be?

    This in turn leads to 3 sub questions
    1. Will Saudi Arabia be able to frighten Russia, Iran, Kuwait and Venezuela into making more than token cuts( obviously no cuts can be expected from Iraq or Libya and the remaining OPEC members either do not matter or cannot be trusted )?
    2. Will the Majors , mini Majors and Very Large Independents visibly delay projects so production is shifted from next year to 2016( investors will approve of increased net cash flow even if upstream volumes decline)
    3. Will North American, especially US medium and small independents substantially reduce capital spending to harvest cash, ensure survival and take the time to improve worker skills and learn best practices to improve productivity while pursuing options to merge or sell for stock( investors will enthusiastically support such decisions)

    The capacity for a swift supply response exists. Whether there is will, commercial clarity and financial discipline we do not know.

    A related question is: Whether there will be a significant demand response from Asia( which is the greatest net beneficiary from lower energy import bills) and from road and air travelers everywhere, particularly the US?
    Oct 14 11:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Correction Scorecard: Have We Seen The 'Capitulation' Yet? [View article]
    1. There are no "permanent" shifts in the oil price paradigm. There are rationalizations and fashionable theories( Peak Oil eg ) that endure for a season and there are no experts on oil market behavior. Oil prices are inherently unpredictable; volatile and cyclical driven by basic production and consumption certainly but just as much by geo strategic trends and events and the direction of the US dollar. In this industry tomorrow is always another day.

    2. Kurdistan will increase crude production in 2015 despite ISIS while southern Iraq may falter; North America will increase liquids production but Russia may stagnate or decline and Brazil and Mexico will also decline. Shale development in Argentina will be much slower than anticipated. Central Asia will not grow production at the rate expected 6 months ago because of operational delays

    3. Several LNG export projects outside the US face certain delay or even cancellations because of massive capital and labor cost escalation or tax regime issues. The US Gulf coast is now the most competitive place in the world to build LNG export infrastructure, with Washington DC being the biggest obstacle. The US has a window of opportunity to become a formidable force in global LNG markets creating great value for US upstream and midstream companies as well as ports.

    4. Stock prices in small and mid cap companies are amplified bets on oil and gas prices and as such subject to both panic buying and selling as well as manipulation by hedge funds. Huge volatility and mispring is quite common: hence the agony and the ecastacy of retail investors.


    Investors should not forget that world oil and natural gas consumption will continue to grow for many years as the Global South experiences a massive increase in its lower - middle and middle class population Supply will increase to meet demand and upstream and midstream North American companies will benefit.
    Oct 13 04:27 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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