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User 353732

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  • India kicks off world's biggest election [View news story]
    India is by far the largest democracy in the world with as many voters as the populations of the US and EU combined and a higher turnout than in any Western election.
    Despite its multiple pathologies India has more competitive and comprehensive free elections than any major Western nation: hundreds of millions of very poor and often illiterate people understand better than most Americans and Europeans how precious the right to vote is and how important it is to exercise and preserve that right.
    Apr 7 12:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Bakken oil output to soar as spending hits $15B [View news story]
    Retail investors will profit from upstream consolidation in the Bakken/TF and from midstream MLPs. There is a decade of infrastructure build out still ahead.

    The remaining value estimate is too rough to be actionable. Prices, recovery rates, and total recoverable resource are substantial unknowns; the latter two depend on human ingenuity and cannot be forecast with any assurance.
    Apr 6 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Takeaways From Enterprise Products Partners LP's Recent Analyst Day [View article]
    Many retail investors who know and closely follow the North American oil and gas industry have chosen to assemble a risk/reward portfolio consisting of about half a dozen independents, especially those with a Permian focus, plus half a dozen midstream MLPS, augmented by positions in COP, CVX and XOM.
    Apr 3 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Pendulum Swinging From Oil Back To Natural Gas? [View article]
    Big Gas is emerging as a new global growth industry: not in competition with Big Oil but as its younger sister
    Big Oil will continue to grow slowly for decades yet while Big Gas grows rapidly until, in about twenty years, it becomes as strategically, technologically and economically as important as Big Oil in scale and scope.
    Apr 3 01:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom makes new increase in gas price to Ukraine [View news story]
    The Russians are acting as any Western monopolist would: using economic power to extract rents from customers who have or are allowed no choice...helps finance the expense of keeping those Russian division deployed along the Ukrainian border.......
    Apr 3 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Israel risks delay in becoming big gas exporter due to tax dispute [View news story]
    Israel has a rather brief window of opportunity to become a significant exporter of natural gas to Europe, thus greatly enhancing its economic and geo strategic positions.
    Unfortunately, in its greed and incompetence the Israeli Government is acting as typical ME country
    Apr 3 01:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Barron's Is Wrong On $75 Oil [View article]
    Geo political risk is also an important factor in determining oil and LNG prices ; this risk is quite high these days from Eurasia,to Africa to Latin America and the risk premium is and must be reflected in the internationally traded price of energy, especially oil and via oil, LNG.
    In addition dollar debasement means that the nominal price of oil must keep rising merely to maintain purchasing power, much less increase it.
    A nominal price of $100 ,in terms of real prices, is well below the historical peak in real prices, suggesting that nominal prices will stay above $100.
    Finally there are cost pressures from labor, vendor goods and services, local content requirements in most countries and scarcity of skilled talent.

    The pressiure on nominal oil prices is up not down.
    Apr 2 07:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Is Putting Money In Your Pocket [View article]
    Retail investors who like the oil and gas industry often do not need to chose amongst XOM, CVX and COP : they buy and if they can accumulate all three. These 3 companies are not financial or strategic substitutes; rather they are complementary holdings.
    Apr 1 12:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twilight Of The Oil Age [View article]
    For the past 80 years "experts" have forecast the imminent end of the oil age. Yet, proven and probable oil reserves and installed production capacity have never been higher.
    The low permeability oil resources of the planet are vast and the knowledge needed to produce efficiently and on scale from these resources is still very limited.
    The oil age has decades to go yet. Human ingenuity, risk capital and entrepreneurship combine to find, prove and produce oil(and gas and coal...)as they have from the outset and as long as governments do not disrupt this combination the global industry will continue to astonish with its achievements, especially those of the North American independents.
    Apr 1 08:02 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ethanol blend wall cost refiners at least $1.35B in 2013, Reuters review says [View news story]
    Actually it will cost consumers not refineries since government mandates costs on business are always an imposition on consumers. Businesses have no source of revenues aside from their customers so regulatory costs on business are just another tax on consumers.
    Mar 31 12:45 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: How the giant Kazakh oil project went $30B over budget, years late [View news story]
    Oil prices have risen, in nominal terms, by a factor of 3 since the project was conceived. The nominal cost was projected to be $20 billion; now its projected at $50 billion: less than a factor of 3 seems that the real economics and true value added of the project are about where they were when first articulated.
    Mar 31 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blood In The Streets, It's Time To Buy Russia [View article]
    Russia has become a heavily commodity and weapons export dependent economy with deeply suspect capital markets, very poor demographics and no drivers of internal consumption growth(except for the top 5% of the population, which lives a privileged life).
    While it has some technologically competitive industries, they are all weapons related(such as aerospace) and no sign of innovation anywhere else.
    Mar 28 07:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jones Energy, Inc. Prices Upsized Offering of $500 Million of 6.75% Senior Notes [View article]
    JONE has substantial potential but it is trading below its IPO price and has been a disappointment to investors who like Permian pure plays.
    Mar 28 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Devon: Cheap Energy Shares Are Finally On The Move [View article]
    DVN will get no credit for vision; investors will be persuaded only after there is consistent and impressive execution: this means 2 quarters of strong growth in volumes, margins and cash flow.
    DVN management simply lacks the credibility of several of its peers because it has overpromised and under delivered for the past few years.
    Of course, if DVN dfoes deliver, it may be one of the best perforiming North American upstream companies in the 4th quarter of 2014.
    Mar 27 12:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada approves four LNG export licenses for Pacific coast [View news story]
    We are now on the verge of the era of Big Gas that in a couple of decades will surpass Big Oil in terms of revenues, cash flows and investments, even as Big Oil keeps slowly growing.
    The leading players in Big Oil will also be the leading players in Big Gas, especially XOM, CVX and Shell. Gazprom, of course, is not in Big Oil but will be a formidable presence in Big Gas. Companies such as BG that are relatively small today have an opportunity to double or treble in scale over the next 20 years.
    Several state owned oil and gas companies in Asia will succeed in building multinational investment portfolios in Big Gas as the domestic markets in Asia become the chief drivers of the growth in global LNG trade and supply chains.
    Mar 27 12:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment