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User 353732

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  • ConocoPhillips' Revenue Dips As Oil Market Remains Volatile [View article]
    Investors will reward cash conservation because liquidity is an important competitive advantage in the current environment and a powerful indicator that Management will not pursue growth at any cost. Empty growth is a wealth destroyer, not a wealth creator.
    When prices are above $100/bbl many investors demand volume growth. When prices are below $80/bbl these same investors demand operational and organizational efficiency. Fear replaces greed very quickly indeed.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Crestwood Midstream Partners Earnings And Distribution Growth [View article]
    CMLP does not seem to have the confidence of retail investors. It has underperformed for so long that management credibility is a significant barrier to price appreciation.
    In terms of distribution and volume growth CMLP will have to deliver above average industry results for the next 12 months to regain investor favor....or exit via a sale to a bigger and more financially secure MLP
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sasol expects Nigeria gas-to-liquids plant to start producing by mid-2015 [View news story]
    A 4 fold increase in capital costs coupled with a hostile business environment in Nigeria must make for a rather poor risk/return relationship for this technologically impressive but strategically weak project.
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Laredo Petroleum beats by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Unfortunately in a hostile market good performance is unrecognized and fear overwhelms facts.
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plains All American to buy Texas pipeline stake for $1.075B [View news story]
    Large producers get no credit from investors for their considerable midstream assets. It makes strategic sense for all large producers including the Global Majors to monetize their North American Midstream assets and redeploy capital into their core operations.
    In turn this creates attractive growth via acquisition opportunities for the 5 biggest Midstream MLPs
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ analysis: Big oil feels the need to get smaller [View news story]
    Big Oil forgets when prices are high but quickly remembers when prices are lower that wealth is created is by expanding the spread between return on capital and cost of capital. When prices are higher Big Oil feels compelled to grow volumes at any cost to retain Wall St favor and satisfy Executive ambition but when they are lower Big Oil reverts to financial discipline , cash conservation and optimizing the integrated value chain.
    In a lower price environment XOM and CVX increase their competitive advantage over their peers and become havens for many retail investors who seek modest but reliable dividend growth.
    Nov 3, 2014. 02:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips - Well-Positioned As Recent Correction Increases Appeal [View article]
    COP is the best positioned of the Super Independents. It is now in a better position to make acquisitions in the US than it was 2 months ago relative to its peers.
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:36 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Oil Sands posts sharp profit decline [View news story]
    The most vulnerable investments today at $80 WTI ( much lower of course in Canada at the well head) are Canadian sands, Russian Arctic, Brazilian offshore and Argentine shale as well as planned LNG projects in Australia, Indonesia and planned Iranian pipeline exports of natural gas : far more than US shale or deepwater GOM
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada‚Äôs western provinces push for lighter tax load in LNG investments [View news story]
    Canada is about to miss its window of opportunity to be a significant LNG exporter.
    The most competitive LNG facilities in world now are those being constructed or in advanced planning stages in the US Gulf Coast
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon posts strong Q3 as refining improvement helps offset lower production [View news story]
    XOM integrated business model = Patient wealth accumulation + Protection against volatility + Dividends maintain purchasing power
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magellan Midstream Partners beats by $0.05, beats on revenue [View news story]
    MMP is perhaps the best managed and financially muscular midstream entity in the industry with substantial growth ahead despite the current panic about liquids prices.
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Eagle Rock Energy Partners Restarts Distribution Payments [View article]
    EROC will have to reconfigure its asset portfolio: sell high cash flow but rapid decline properties for lower cash flow but modest decline fields. Only then will it have the asset profile to provide a consistent 8 to 9 % yield at current prices or a 6 to 7 % distribution yield at north of $4.50/unit assuming a large enough reduction in the number of units outstanding.
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • $80 crude no cause for major concern, oil producer CEOs say [View news story]
    Oil prices are volatile, unpredictable and cyclical. The industry knows this well and has generally learned how to adjust strategy and tactics.
    During the down cycle there is innovation, diffusion of best practices, organizational purging of inefficiencies and weak managements, consolidation ,cash conservation and slow growth.

    During the upcycle there is rapid expansion of capital spending on all activities, much hiring, rapid volumetric growth, new entry and rapid wealth creation.

    Wall St manufactures huge volatility and profits for itself by grossly exaggerating the consequences of both the down and up cycle. It stampedes small investors into imprudent selling on the down and imprudent buying on the up.

    Experienced and informed retail investors usually know this and many invest over several cycles, enduring the pain of 50 to 65 % drops in value of individual stocks( sometimes even more for a small cap) during the downcycle and relishing the 200 to 400 % or much more ( for a small cap)increases in the value of these stocks during the upcycle. The mega caps drop the least but also gain the least while the small caps are amplified bets on the price of liquids and natural gas and management ability.

    The faster we see $75 WTI , the quicker we will see $95 WTI.
    Oct 28, 2014. 01:10 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indonesia says Chevron gas project set back by up to two years [View news story]
    Given the rapid capital and operating cost escalation in mega oil and gas projects worldwide this delay is likely good for Chevron especially as near term cash flows are reduced by the lower price of oil.
    Oct 28, 2014. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman cuts oil services stocks as it lowers pricing outlook [View news story]
    Retail investors who outsource their decision making to Wall ST will also end up transferring wealth to Big Money.
    Wall St "research" is designed to generate transactional and trading income for inside big money by manufacturing volatility and stampeding outside little money.
    Oct 27, 2014. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment