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User 353732

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  • ExxonMobil Is Smart To Stay In Russia [View article]
    The Global Majors outlasted the Red Empire; They were in Russia before the Communists; the Communists are gone but Global Oil is back.
    They were there before the Putinists; They will be there after the Putin era is over in another 10 to 20 years(?).
    XOM, CVX have strategic horizons that exceed that of Regimes.
    Jul 24 08:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Energy Names Moving Higher On Mergers And Acquisitions Speculation [View article]
    The search for efficiency gains, basin focus, the flight of global capital into North American E&P and the desire of private equity backed companies to monetize their positions are driving and will continue to impel M&A in the upstream and midstream sectors for the next 2 to 3 years.
    There has been massive new entry over the past 5 years coupled with a realization, all over the world, that the Permian and the Marcellus are both of tremendous geo strategic importance and offer very attractive risk adjusted returns with the right management.
    As a result scores of small cap independents and less competent midstream entities are targets for consolidation.
    New entry will not cease, of course, but shift to the Utica and the Buda once infrastructure constraints are reduced in the former and the astonishingly good economics of the latter becomes apparent.
    Capital rotation and management replacement on an impressive scale is about to occur, it would seem. Investing in today's underperformers may not be such a bad idea for those with fortitude and a little patience.
    Jul 23 02:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners: Staying Bullish As The Company Raises Its Dividend [View article]
    Post ACMP, WPZ will be a qualitatively different entity: it will have the benefits of scale but also the challenge of successful business integration and allocating capital and talent to a bigger and different portfolio of prospects. Poor execution is a considerable risk but good execution will create upside not priced into the security.
    For investors the key issue is whether Management is superior or merely average for the industry.
    Jul 22 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISIS Impact On Western Oil Companies [View article]
    Iraqis now defacto spilt into 3 : a Northern Kurdistan rich in oil and gas, secure and hospitable to Foreign capital, with production likely to double by end 2015.

    A Southern Shia state that is increasingly a client of Iran, even richer in oil and gas, secure enough and will be well defended and dependent on foreign capital, technology and talent.

    A Middle wasteland that is the domain of Sunnis who kill each other with as much relish as they kill everyone else; with virtually no oil and gas and of no interest to foreign capital.

    Rising production but with a high risk premium priced into the forward price of oil is the current trend in Iraq. Risk is endemic in the oil and gas business: war is but one category of risk. From a risk/return perspective Kurdistan is a better place than California.
    Jul 22 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On Texas [View article]
    Texas demonstrates yet again that it is the system that is crucial not the mere presence of abundant oil and gas resources.

    Several states in the US and countries in the world have impressive endowments of physical oil and gas resources but they do not have system that encourages the combination of entrepreneurship, true innovation and genuine risk capital to turn resources into cash and hence into wealth, income and jobs. Texas, Western Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Louisiana have it and North Dakota but California, New York, Illinois, Argentina, China, Western Europe and India do not.
    Jul 21 04:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More pain for Russian tech/telecom stocks [View news story]
    Putinism will not be contained by financial actions: the Putinists will feel no pain; they will continue to appropriate the revenues from energy, natural gas, weapons and nuclear technology exports. Ordinary Russians and even the oligarchs will be hurt bit they have no leverage over the Putin Regime.
    Military action , for which the West has no will and for which Europe has no assets, can deter Putin but will not be forthcoming: not even supplying effective weapons to those willing to fight.
    Economic action in the form of substantially increased oil, gas, coal and nuclear energy production in North America and the EU can be a very potent deterrent by choking cash flow for the Putin Regime but the Euro-elites and the US Bi-Coastal elites are against oil, against natural gas, against coal and against nuclear energy.
    Were it not for North Dakota, Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico and Colorado the West would be in deep geo-strategic trouble
    Jul 21 03:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron In Regions Of Conflict - Risk Or Reward? [View article]
    Chevron is in the business of making risk/reward trade offs. It is a core competence of every good oil and gas company.
    Risks are ubiquitous and manifold; geo strategic risk is but one of many. California is perhaps riskier than Kurdistan on a total return basis........

    CVX cannot flee risk otherwise its ambit of operations would become very small indeed; What it can do and what it does every day is to correctly identify and quantify risk and ensure that it is adequately compensated for assuming risk.
    There will be geo strategic and political "dry holes" but a global portfolio of operations and projects mitigates the impact of a single adverse outcome, even a large one.
    Jul 19 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Rich Richer [View article]
    In a kleptocratic oligarchy the concentration of wealth and power is indeed the dominant doctrine and strategy.
    The American Republic has been replaced by the US Soviet. The tiny upper class rejoices; the swelling lower class is oblivious or welcomes the descent; the publicly employed middle class is content to be bribed or deluded and the privately employed middle class is too fragmented and demoralized to effectively resist.
    Jul 17 08:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BP says new sanctions on Russia appear to target access to markets [View news story]
    Sanctions may hurt ordinary Russians and create risk for foreign capital but they will have no effect on the Russian Regime nor will they deter Asia and Africa from doing more business with Russia.
    Russia exports natural resources, weapons and nuclear technology: the Global South wants and is willing to pay for these.

    The most effective way to constrain Russia is to increase oil and gas production in North America and Europe. Europe is against nuclear energy, against coal and against the development of its very considerable shale oil and gas resources; How the Russian Regime must laugh in contempt ........
    Jul 17 07:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • El Paso Pipeline Partners misses by $0.06, misses on revenue [View news story]
    The distribution yield seems adequate to justify the higher risks associated with EPB.
    Jul 17 07:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plains may build condensate-only pipelines in Permian Basin [View news story]
    The export market for condensates could be close to 1 million barrels per day, leading to substantial midstream splitting, logistics and terminal facilities opportunity: good news for the industry , Texas and investors and especially good news for midstream MLPs
    Jul 16 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Goes Head-To-Head With This Energy Play [View article]
    1. The best managed and most formidable Global Major cannot be compared with an independent that has high potential but yet to prove it can consistently deliver.

    2. In any event, why not own both?
    Jul 15 12:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Energy Targeting Multiple Growth Plays [View article]
    NBL would be more appealing to many retail investors if it spun off its international assets into a separate publicly traded company. NBL has the opportunity to be a leading US independent.
    Jul 9 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon-Qatar venture seeks permit for Texas LNG export plant [View news story]
    LNG exports will create national wealth, provide good jobs and enhance the geo strategic position of the US while constraining Gazprom and Iranian natural gas development. Texas and Pennsylvania now have a global competitive advantage in the entire natural gas and gas liquids value chain and this advantage should be nurtured and enhanced.
    Jul 8 01:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats: A Perspective On The U.S. Oil And Gas E&P Industry [View article]
    Even a rising tide will not lift boats with a hole in the bottom caused by bad management or a poor business position or dominant control by a single entity.

    Retail investors, in particular, invest in specific E&P or integrated companies, not sectors and many are quite discerning about success factors. Compare, for example, the performance of ATHL with AREX: both small, both with good business positions but the former has delivered on Management promises while the latter has yet to do so.
    Jul 8 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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