Seeking Alpha

User 353732

User 353732
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View User 353732's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chevron says low oil price won't deter it from new projects in Mexico [View news story]
    This reads more like a brave and defiant press release designed to rally CVX shareholders rather than a true statement of investing intent.
    In any case Mexico and Argentina are mere noise in CVX's business plans for the next 3 years. After that they may be significant.
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CLSA's Otto likes Cimarex, Cabot Oil, EQT; negative on Continental, Laredo [View news story]
    How many wells has this analyst drilled? How much capital has this analyst risked on his view of the world?
    Whom would you rather trust: people who actually run companies that are engines of wealth creation or Wall St "experts"?
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Laredo Petroleum raises Q4 production guidance [View news story]
    LPI is grossly undervalued as are 90% of its peers. Saudi Arabia initiated the current decline but it is Wall ST that has amplified it by manufacturing panic and volatility.
    Independents that conserve cash, monetize non strategic assets, reduce costs and internalize best practices in 2015 will be very well positioned for the upcycle.
    The faster oil prices fall, the faster they rebound.
    Oil is and will continue to be highly cyclical and volatile. It will either be priced too low to stimulate adequate supply or too high to encourage consumption growth in the West. A majority of retail investors and managements of upstream companies know and accept this defining feature of the industry.
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petronas-led LNG project clears B.C. environmental hurdles [View news story]
    Canada is close to missing its window of opportunity for becoming a significant presence in global LNG trade. The US Gulf Coast is now the most competitive place in the world for LNG terminals.
    If these 2 Canadian projects are not initiated next year, it is unlikely they will be built at all.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer's Lake Charles LNG Exports (Analyst Day, Part 2) [View article]
    LNG and oil exports( they will be approved if not in 2015 then after the 2016 elections) will considerable augment the thruput and income of several large midstream MLPs( ET certainly but KM even more).

    The US Gulf coast is now the most competitive place in the world to build LNG export facilities.
    Moreover at $4.50/mmbtu natural gas prices(in 2014 dollars) there is a vast amount of supply available to feed LNG facilities as well as meet growing US demand for natural gas in petrochemicals, fertilizers, steel, power and transportation.

    Natural Gas is a once in a 50 year opportunity for the US to create a very large and globally competitive industry while also creating a strategic disadvantage for Iran and Russia.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon, Chevron downgraded by Raymond James [View news story]
    These ratings changes are about as useful as the oil price forecasts of the self appointed "experts".
    When oil prices or stock prices are rising Wall St will issue "research" reports touting even higher prices for oil and the target price for a company, usually with a laughable lag. When oil and stock prices are falling the reverse is true.
    Wall St is in the business of transferring income from retail investors to itself not in the business of providing honest guidance to little money.
    Nov 24, 2014. 01:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kinder Morgan Is Safe To Buy Despite Low Oil Prices [View article]
    KMI has 3 competitive features that make it attractive as a multi year growth company: scale that creates efficiency; scope that reduces risk; and good management that can deploy scale and scope to create real wealth.

    The faster oil prices fall, the faster they will rise: capital flows now respond quickly and either direction for oil prices carries in the seed of its reversal. Oil prices are never stable; they are either too high , which stimulates over investment or too low which stimulates under investment.
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:41 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras - Convergence Of Headwinds [View article]
    Petrobras is a product and part of Brazilian collectivism, xenophobia, elitism and kleptocracy.

    Brazil's great oil resources will now be developed far slower, more expensively and with less safety than was anticipated even a year ago. Indeed in 2015 Brazil might even see a decline in output. Brazil's citizens have been ill served indeed by its Bosses. Brazil has the potential to be a very prosperous and influential global polity wont be with its current political and institutional structures and habits.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Impressive Dividend, But Little Capital Appreciation Potential At Current Price [View article]
    At current oil prices global consumption will be somewhat higher than at $100 oil and global investments in E&P will be lower for projects scheduled for the second half of 2015 and 2016 leading to substantially lower growth in liquids production, worldwide, in 9 to 12 months than was expected a just a few weeks ago. In parallel, political pressure on Saudi Arabia from a majority of OPEC members will escalate visibly.

    The combination of forces will likely cause oil prices to rise abruptly(and excessively) in the second half of 2015 in anticipation of a much tighter market. Should this happen COP will be viewed as a substantially more valuable company than in late NOV 2014.
    Nov 20, 2014. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone XL Not Needed For The Canadian Oil Sands [View article]
    Keystone will be approved by Congress next year but the Executive Branch will block it until a new Executive in a couple of years understands that the strategic value of Keystone for America is to displace all heavy oil imports from Venezuela .
    Then Keystone will begin construction. The strategic and economic forces that make Keystone desirable are greater than the political forces and calculations of a specific Executive.
    Of course, until Keystone is built crude by rail to the US from Canada will continue to grow at impressive rates: a second order effect that opponents of Canadian oil development did not foresee.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Partners gains ahead of merger vote [View news story]
    The new Kinder Morgan has the potential to be a formidable generator of wealth for the balance of this decade, particularly if oil exports are approved and LNG exports attain critical mass.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duke Energy Will Not Run With The Bull Market [View article]
    Generally a company such as DUK can be expected to return an average of 8% per year, via a combination of dividends and stock appreciation. Returns notably above the trend in some years will be offset by below normal returns in other years.

    Given the appreciation in DUK stock over the past 2 years, it is unreasonable to expect further gains in the stock price in 2015; indeed a small retraction might be likely. The greatest threat DUK faces is from Wash Dc and its assault on the coal industry.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Occidental's California spinoff trading lower than expected [View news story]
    Why would an informed, rational retail investor want to own oil and gas assets in California, where the political risk is greater than in Argentina for such assets?
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: A Stock For Income Seekers [View article]
    SO has the best demographic footprint, regulatory environment and organic growth prospects of any major utility but its generating portfolio is under ideological assault by Wash DC and California Billionaires.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport LNG secures DoE approval, clears last regulatory hurdle [View news story]
    Free trade in all forms of energy is good for both American workers and companies and port authorities and for consumers in importing nations.

    The most competitive place in the world today for new LNG facilities is the US Gulf. Several more need to be built.
    Free trade in oil is the next obvious and logical development and "policy by waiver and exemptions" is the most likely path over the next 2 years.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment