MaineLobster

Weekly Markets Summary with 2-Year Perspective

Hello,
What are you thoughts about the 31 day MA?

Did you see this article proving Martin Armstrongs 2009.3 prediction?

zerohedgestinhatclub.b...

Jonathan Finger Balks at BofA Results, Pushes for Lewis's Ouster

Wish I had an emoticon like this one for Ken Lewis:

i43.tinypic.com/epf887...

Sirius Goes To The Dogs (SIRI)

Hey McIntyre,
I know you rarely write for this site anymore but I just had to tell you that you are a douche-nozzle for submitting that farsicle article to Time.

Your credibility looks like that SIRI 1-yr chart that you posted above.

Friday's Real Payroll Number: 750,000 Meaning Total Unemployment Rate at 19.8%

You can only collect unemployment for so long. At what point do those people who have been collecting for 6 - 9 months fall off of the dole?

When they do how is that accounted for? I mean semi-perm unemployment without beni's?

Infrastructure's Future: ETFs Worth Allocating To

Interesting. But I think it would be responsible if you mentioned that ETF's are not but and hold vehicles. They were invented for day trading and should be used that way.

Citigroup Float May Experience Dramatic Upside Velocity

"Disclosure: Author holds a long position in C"


Should you say that you hold a highly leveraged long position in C??

Will Someone Remove Geithner from the Poker Table, Please?

The Amazing TALF Bait And Switch

Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:14 AM
The greatest bait and switch of this generation in all its visual splendor. As a result of the TALF's non-recourse nature, a hedge fund X can buy Bank X's MBS Portfolio which is marked on the bank's books at 80 cents on the dollar (but has a market price of 20 cents) for the marked price with a 3% equity check and TALF filling the balance. A day later, Bank X repurchases the portfolio from hedge fund X at the 20 cent market price, pays a $5 million fee for the "trouble" and waits for the portfolio to appreciate to 50 cents on the dollar by 2014. Hedge fund X takes a 75% loss on its nominal equity stake but more than makes up in transaction fees. The TALF portion takes a 75% loss with no recourse and no margin to fall back on.

As a result Bank X takes no writedown now, and in 5 years may book an equity profit of as much as $25 million (net of transaction fees paid to the Hedge Fund X), while Hedge Fund X books a profit of $3.2 million for one day's work...

Lastly the U.S. taxpayer loses $54.3 million on a $77.6 million TALF Investment, or 70% (net of 5 years of interest income).

Note: the maximum TALF size is $1 trillion. Will U.S. taxpayers suffer $700 billion in losses from the TALF? Ask your congressman.



digg.com/business_fina...

How Low Can the S&P 500 Go?

Thanks J Clinton Hill. Nice article. The spiral has begun.

Acknowledging Our 'Animal Spirits'

The Theory of Reflexivity by George Soros.

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

Hey Mr Apple Calls,
Look at page 23 on this report to the US Tresury.

$4 trillion in assets, $34 trillion in exposure to Derivatives. Reported Sept. 2008 before the BAD aquisitions.

www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...

In Praise of Suze Orman

Why the long face?

Why China Can't Dump U.S. Treasuries

Mr. Fessler,
Have you thought about the Yuan taking the lead as the safe haven currency, replacing the US Dollar?

It's just a matter of time as the Chinese government and currency is backed by hard assets. The government owns all land in China.

"China takes small steps toward establishing yuan as regional currency"
www.iht.com/articles/2...

America's Banks: Are They Really Insolvent?

Don't forget to list the banks exposure to other derivatives.

Bank of America: (as of Sep 30, 2008)
Total Assets:1.8 Trillion
Total Derivatives: 39.98 Trillion

www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...

Flip to page 23 and feast your eyes! There is nothing like taking all your assets, flying to Vegas and putting it all on Black.

Our Deflationary Mindset Is the Most Concerning

Can someone please write an article about the cost of consumer goods which have not come down since their peak in 2007. Or is this how you define "deflation".

Crude oil is $41 a barrell, gasoline still costs $2 a gallon, liquid laundry detergent is $20 a gallon, Gillette razor replacement cartiges cost $21 for a pack of 10. I could go on...

Commodities have come down but we will never see that at the retail level. Even though there is a reduction of consumption, the manufacturers and retailers are soaking up the extra profits.

We should see this reflected in corporate earnings next quarter as expectations will be met and in most cases exceeded because of lower labor, raw material, and transportation costs.

The market is poised for growth.

Enjoy!
The Lobster.

This Is Just the Beginning

For every home that sold during the real estate boom there was a buyer and a seller.

The buyers are currently experiencing massive reductions of equity in their homes which necessitates an equal but opposite reduction of wealth from the original seller of the home who in most cases participated in fraud to get their homes appraised at much higher values then they were actually worth.

This is what I call "Resultant Equity Equalibrium". To achieve this the US Dollar has to fall and we must jump to hyper inflation. There is no avoiding this.

Short the NYBOT US Dollar, sit back and watch the fireworks.

Enjoy!
The Lobster