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sully2

sully2
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  • Is Obama's Black Swan Coming Soon? [View article]
    Personally, I think either one of the two will create a problem. However, this would not meet the definition of a black swan event if everyone is already expecting it.

    A Black Swan event is an event in human history that was unprecedented and unexpected at the point in time it occurred. However, after evaluating the surrounding context, domain experts (and in some cases even laymen) can usually conclude: “it was bound to happen”. Even though some parameters may differ (such as the event’s time, location, or specific type), it is likely that similar incidences have had similar effects in the past.

    Greenspan was trying to make the housing bubble bust sound like a black swan event when anyone with a teaspoon of common sense could tell housing prices were at nose bleed levels and couldn't be sustained much longer.
    Aug 30 10:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our First Quarter Retirement Income Portfolio Review [View article]
    You can add CL to the list - paying since 1895 and increasing regularly for last 50 yrs. Also, price appreciation (since 1977) is dramatic compared to PG and GIS.

    mREITs depend on the net interest spread. Currently it's favorable for them. However, as in any high yield stock, the risk is greater. I currently hold TWO and only because of its spin off of SBY.

    I currently have 44% of my portfolio in low beta (avg .42) and intend to get it up to at least 75% when the opportunity arises. About half of these are in consumer goods.
    Apr 24 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Early Warning Signs Of A Pullback [View article]
    Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered!
    Mar 27 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 High Yielding Dividend Machines Boosting Distributions [View article]
    I have all four of the above stocks. I've had O (+25%) for over a year, WPC (+41%) six months and GIS (+18%) three months. Not sure how much more thoroughly you can look at WPC as I figured the stock would move up when they changed to a REIT from a MLP which it did. Now it's probably too far gone for a decent entry.
    Mar 21 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio Strategy [View article]
    I agree, if you picked right in the first place you just sit back and watch. My criteria is a bit different than Integrator as I don't put as much emphasis on the 'moat' and more on performance (gain).

    I use performance only after I've narrowed it down and then use yahoo charts pick BRK-B go to max and compare to SP 500.

    Doing it like this you can toggle between max and 5 yr performance. I then add some of my current holdings and the new stock I'm tracking to BRK.B and SP 500. If I can't beat Buffett and the SP 500 (overall) then I skip to the next one.

    Example: ABC,CHD,CL and DPS. DPS only has a 5 yr chart and looks bad compared to rest on 'max' but not so bad when all are on 5 yr. The new addition should be at least above the worse performer in my portfolio or the dividend and history has to be better before I buy.

    This has worked out pretty well, as I don't lose much sleep!
    Mar 14 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio Strategy [View article]
    OK, why are you so insistent on making a point? The subject of this post was dividend growth. I mentioned the criteria as applying to Buffett because of the term 'moat' the fact I think he is a tax dodger, which you will never convince me otherwise, has nothing to do with stocks paying increasing dividends. Stay on track would you. Forget about the tax dodger, I am, and concentrate on solid companies paying increasing dividends with good EPS and price appreciation (hence my add of DPS). I really don't care whether Buffett pays a lot or a little in taxes, it doesn't matter with the current clowns we have in office as they'll continue to spend it all and more until the camels back finally breaks.
    Mar 12 04:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio Strategy [View article]
    Granted I should have said much in taxes rather than 'any' however I wouldn't bet he pays far more than I do on a percentage basis and yes BRK pays far more than I do, but it pays far more than just about everyone else in the country also.

    Don't believe all the hype you hear about him. He's not the 'Mr Clean' you apparently think he is. However, if you disagree go ahead and buy BRK-B shares. Someday they will be paying a dividend, after Buffett dies and the trust that owns the shares needs some spending money.
    Mar 12 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio Strategy [View article]
    Sure, since he doesn't pay any taxes why not expect everyone else to? Main reason BRK doesn't pay a dividend, think of all the tax he would have to pay based on his 20% stake.
    Mar 12 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio Strategy [View article]
    You have a pretty long wish list. Before you add anymore you should go back to the ones you still own and go over the criteria. The only ones I can find that meet your criteria are MCD, V and NVS. I personally don't like annual dividends and would replace BP with COP and sell the rest. Stay in cash until the market corrects then consider some on your wish list - CLX, CL and add DPS in lieu of KO or PEP.

    Your criteria sounds like Warren Buffett - the world renown tax dodger. The guy owns a ton of KO and buys HNZ with a partner when he could buy DPS on his own and have ALL the profits.

    You should be thinking about price appreciation in addition to your other criteria. COP is outperforming BP even after its spin off of PSX. I didn't compare any of the Australian stocks as you know these better than I do.
    Mar 12 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Buffett Tells It Like It Is [View article]
    I would save duplicitous for politicians and use hypocrite for Buffett. Here the 60 Plus Association outright calls him a hypocrite:

    http://bit.ly/VKpyB7
    Mar 7 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz Arbitrage Trade: Reject Buffett's Offer II [View article]
    The whole deal is like a coin flip - Heads I win, tails you lose!
    BTW, doesn't anyone even watch CNBC anymore?
    Mar 6 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday Market Movement: Buffett Tells It Like It Is [View article]
    Originally it made sense for Buffett to invest the cash rather then pay dividends. However, because of his large BRK holdings a dividend (now) would force him to find other places to invest his huge payout. According to his recent shareholder report he is having a hard time finding companies to hoard. Unlike Larry Ellison who goes out and buys up prime real estate every time he gets his dividend check, Buffett doesn't want to be bothered. Nice to have those problem isn't it.
    Mar 4 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heinz, Is Anyone Listening Or Is Everyone Blind? [View article]
    I have shares in all the companies mentioned above except CPB. The reason being is that their soup has gotten thinner over the years, its split pea it like an MRE compared to other brands. Heinz ketchup seems to be the same today as it was in the 50's. I could be wrong, but I don't think they changed the formula any over the years.

    Heinz is an iconic American company. It should remain a public company not hoarded by a billionaire that's too rich for his own good.

    The partner company (3G) was also involved in the BUD (another one of my no votes) buyout as well as Burger King.

    One of the reasons I'm against this sale is not for price but for the dividend. Where else can seniors get 2.8% (at current inflated takeover price)? Treasuries? yeah right! CD's?

    I look at the company as one that is very unlikely to go broke anytime this century. How many American households can you enter and NOT see a bottle of Heinz?

    Granted, if this sale goes through I'll live and move on like I did after the BUD sale. However, I'm still fuming over losing this iconic American brand to a foreign company.

    So, no matter the what final offer is I'll vote no on the sale.
    Mar 1 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Offer, Heinz Versus Hershey [View article]
    If this takeover fails, I think we should ban together and vote out the current board of directors. Its becoming quite obvious they are not acting in ALL shareholders interest!
    Feb 28 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Offer, Heinz Versus Hershey [View article]
    Heinz board members and management back the deal because they stand to receive more than $400 million for an estimated 5.6 million shares of "illiquid "holdings, the lawsuits allege. Additionally, insiders "will also be handsomely rewarded with millions more in special change-in-control benefits if the proposed acquisition closes," according to the Clem complaint.

    http://usat.ly/12bSFRG
    Feb 27 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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