Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Twitter down 4.8% on second Stifel downgrade in 9 days  [View news story]
    Like oil, the big boys want to keep volatility high in Twitter so they can trade it very profitably. No point owning this stock, much better to sell options.
    Feb 2, 2016. 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: If iPhone Keeps Shrinking  [View article]
    The premise of this article is built upon Apple's lower guidance for Q2. While there certainly are headwinds, Apple has gotten smarter about how to play to Wall Street. Previously when they projected revenue growth, they've been penalized for not beating it enough. Now that Wall Street has been shorting them for the last several months, Apple might as well over-sandbag future guidance, buy back shares cheaper, and build up sales of 7 and 6c for a blow out end of year in revenue, and hopefully a big pop in share price. The challenge will be how to reward investors, rather than traders, for holding a value stock. My preference would be a bigger and more frequent dividend.
    Feb 1, 2016. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon misses estimates, issues in-line guidance; shares drop  [View news story]
    $500 here we come! Wow, did this stock get talked up. Pump and dump. Finally fundamentals are catching up. Will see what happens to Google on Monday. Apple will likely appear to be a rockstar after next week.

    Between oil and FANG stocks, the algorithmic HFT traders must be making record profits this year. Wish I had one of those black boxes myself.
    Jan 28, 2016. 04:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Chill  [View article]
    I agree with a lot of the author's points, especially the over-sandbagging of next quarter guidance. Seems like if analysts only care about if apple can exceed their predictions, Apple might as well capitalize on the doom and gloom by seeding a future drop in sales so they can repurchase shares cheaper and surprise to upside later in year. The irony is that all other US tech multinationals face similar macroeconomic and currency headwinds and will likely guide lower when they report as well. If the current bear meme is that Apple supposedly can't get its base to upgrade to latest phones, then everyone will soon find out the problem is global for all brands and at the end of the day, Apple will still be earning the lion's share of profits.

    My only beef as a shareholder now is that they should increase the amount of total dividend and frequency, say once a month to reward buy and hold investors.
    Jan 27, 2016. 12:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming soon at Twitter: massive executive upheaval  [View news story]
    Makes one wonder if the News corp "rumor" was planted to move the stock up before this news came out. Feels very negative to me, like the stock will take a 10% hit on Monday. Though could ultimately be good for company if they have total regime change and a takeover. Buckle up, shareholders!
    Jan 24, 2016. 03:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour  [View news story]
    Seems to be the pattern these days: push up ES futures overnight, dump VIX futures, then sell on the open and ramp up volatility, then, near the close, push averages back up. Oil is generally the same. I think this is how all the big boys are making back their money on the giant slide in commodities.

    I personally don't think the market will have a major correction, barring some black swan event. So if the market will be basically flat for awhile, pushing fear propaganda is the best way to keep volatility alive and trading profits high as the markets oscillate within 2% daily. For investors, the volatility is nerve-racking, but for traders, it is heaven.
    Jan 13, 2016. 10:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow  [View article]
    So, PowerThinker, how did you know this? Just a lucky guess or were you assuming that this is standard playbook for a bunch of mutual fund companies to unload shares after ex-dividend date, depress the price, and buy back so they can improve their returns for the rest of the quarter?

    Wall Street knows the world is long AAPL, so they can use the stock as an ATM to sell calls against and short it when Apple can't buy back. They know there is always support for it, so more profitable to push down and front-run.

    Or perhaps Apple is involved in depressing its price so it can buy back more cheap. Buy puts as you unload and calls as you buy back. Probably illegal, but doable via proxies. Though Apple is likely too ethical to try this.

    I think Apple's best strategy going forward is to increase the dividend along with its frequency, break apart the businesses, and/or buy back enough shares to go private. Seems ridiculous that they cannot leverage their business success with their stock price.
    Nov 10, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line  [View news story]
    $150 after next earnings
    Oct 27, 2015. 04:37 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook provides user figures of Apple Music  [View news story]
    Because it's Apple, the expectations must be unrealistic.

    I think Apple is well aware that the streaming business is not very profitable, a legal quagmire with lots of overhead and endless ongoing negotiations. Spotify's low profitability and Netflix's growing costs are a testament to that. While it may be likely that current Spotify users won't migrate to Apple Music, those without AM subscriptions who try it are likely to pay for it because it's cheaper to listen to the whole AM catalogue than buy 10 CDs a year. The paradigm of owning music is dying quickly. Apple may have been a bit late offering the subscription model, but they have deep pockets and a huge global network of stores and servers to roll out the hardware and stream the content. They will do fine picking up the crumbs of profit available in streaming, while they eat the cake of their profitable hardware business.
    Oct 20, 2015. 09:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obvious Case For Buying Apple  [View article]
    Great fundamentals article to rally the Apple faithful. I've been an Apple user and fan for nearly 25 years, but am continually frustrated by its stock movement as compared with its company performance.

    Apple is without peer; it is arguably the most successful company on the planet. Critics complain that Apple is now a one-trick pony--only the iPhone (I disagree strongly). But most companies are one trick ponies. When I walk around DC and NYC, all I see are iPhones, like 90%. Everyone's eager to upgrade and wants the watch when it hits 2.0. Computers and tablets are great, but smartphones are indispensable. And Apple iPhone users won't switch to Android. They are happy with the ecosystem and only want to enlarge their Apple device world. For them, Apple doesn't have to blow their minds with new releases, just refine and improve, and allow them to do more, faster in the palm of their hand.

    As to the stock price, whether $130 is "fair value," I understand the author's reasoning, while believing that Apple should be at least a $150 stock. The problem with AAPL, the stock, is the world is long it. So the best trade for the big boys is to short it, which I believe has been what's been going on since it hit $134. With commodities slaughtered and China weak, the best place for big traders to go to replenish cash and cover margin calls, is to raid the cash out of the AAPL atm. Generally speaking they can count on retail traders to buy on dips, so there is always a good floor to hammer into. I suspect that come January, the big-boy shorting strategy may flip to ultra long. I hope so. We shall see.

    While I believe Tim Cook should just concentrate on product development and execution, I do think that Apple should do more to reward longterm Apple shareholders. Perhaps increasing the dividend and its frequency to make shorting more risky. Perhaps another reverse stock split. I'd also like to see Apple start an Apple Labs for more pure R&D to push the ways that technology can impact medicine and global problems. In short, to get some of Google's genius spotlight for pie-in-the sky research that in the long run increases Apple's reach and brand image. Perhaps the Apple Car will help with this.
    Sep 24, 2015. 03:51 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple launches cheaper iMac  [View news story]
    Seems like a good move. Basically a macbook air with a large screen. Apple is slowly making it easier for more iPhone/ipad users to expand their Apple ecosystem. Once you buy a few Apple products, you never want to leave.
    Jun 18, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Afternoon rally pushes stocks higher, Nasdaq up for the week  [View news story]
    May option expiration + QE + buy the dips. We will likely rise into new highs for the Memorial Day weekend.
    May 17, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN Work?  [View article]
    You make some great points. While I don't have the data, I suspect the $ spent on put options on SPX is much less than the hedging activity that is done with VXX. In addition, the VIX futures which drive the share price of most of the VIX ETF/ETN have volumes on the order of 880 contracts a day for current month (May) and 440 contracts for forward month (June). It seems crazy to me that trading activity worth $1.3 million ($1k/contract) can affect the value of perhaps more than half billion dollars of VIX ETF trading.

    It would be interesting if somebody researched the trend in VIX style hedging (SPX puts) vs SPY puts vs VIX ETF product calls (VXX, UVXY, etc.) over the last half-decade. I suspect that by 2010, after the worst of the financial meltdown was over, while the VIX is still probably a decent snapshot of SPX put activity, the majority of hedging/speculating has been done in VIX ETF products, thus making the VIX (SPX puts) less accurate as a real “fear” index. What does this mean? I don't know.

    But I do know that we live in a complex, meta-indexed and correlated world, one in which most developed nations are engaged in massive stimulus and the stock market is the only place offering any returns. While it seems to me that volatility is too low right now, it might be appropriate for a market protected by the Yellen (formerly Bernanke) put. Thus we will have low volatility for as long as QE remains and the FED is determined to prop up everyone’s 401Ks and real estate values until the real economy actually takes off.
    May 15, 2014. 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Video appears to confirm Apple-Beats; Iovine reportedly set to join Apple  [View news story]
    While I'm not happy about the price, I think this may be a very smart move and possibly be spurred on by the new Burberry CEO hire. Let's face it, the smartphone market is maturing very quickly and conspicuous high-end accessories are where the margins are. In NYC where I live, just walking down the street, I see about a quarter of the under 30 set, wearing these headphones--men and women alike and they seem to wear them as much for fashion as to escape from the world in music. The brand has a very loyal following and a cool cachet, both great things for Apple to leverage. I don't know which phones must of these hipsters are using, but Apple knows that if they bring them on board, they will find plenty to buy in the giant ecosystem.
    May 9, 2014. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors higher on Apple enthusiasm  [View news story]
    The premarket rally had nothing to do with the Apple meeting. Tesla has already chosen Android for their on board OS. Tesla's earnings are coming up and the stock needed some juicing before it heads down to reality on the 19th.
    Feb 18, 2014. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment