doctordoctor

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

everyone seems to ignore china's growing civil war pressures. many of the provinces are close to breaking apart and the hatred for the beijing mandarins is thick in the air. give the country ten more years max before it flys apart much like the soviet union did, only this time it will be very bloody.

Junk Bond 'Bubble' Defies State of Credit Expansion

if credit gets tighter, and funds for junk decline, wont junk rates go up? back in 1979-82 period, junk rates were over 24% per annum!! mm rates were above 18%, and still there was unmet demand for credit. history tells us current junk rates are about average. so just dont see how the author arrived at his conclusions unless he really really believes "this time its different."

PIMCO's Bill Gross: Consumers Changed for a Generation

once the inflation phase starts, the consumer will find an overwhelming incentive to start spending and borrowing. witness end of ww2, vietnam, etc. so its not a generational issue, but an inflation issue. and the start of that phase will now be largely dictated by foreign currency markets, thanks to our love of free trade.

Indicator Update: Bull Market Correction

i made a mistake on the p/e. it was the food processor, not the word processor that did it. barrons market lab reports p/e around 127. current earnings at 7 and change. i would argue future earnings estimates are usually worthless outside of stable times. remember, the earnings for the first half of this year were pegged at 40 abouts as late as last december. 7 is a far cry from 40. and no time during the 30s did p/e soar up to 127. unless earnings are going to have a dramatic rise soon, just dont see earnings above 15 or so till next year, if then.

On Jun 22 01:40 PM Fred Voetsch wrote:

> On Jun 22 12:32 PM doctordoctor wrote:

The Bond Saga Gets Even Odder

maybe they were fake japanese?? sounds like the world financial system may be fake. so what government would want to clean up this mess and run the risk of bring down what is left of the global financial system? which means eventually a massive supply of fake bonds that are dealt with as real, even though they know the bonds are fake. something like cmo's or even my neighbor's tool shed that has a 1.2 million mortgage on it as a "second home"' guess we might as well join in since if we dont, we are going to get the probverbial screw driver applied to us regardless.

Indicator Update: Bull Market Correction

i agree this is a bear market rally coming to an end. as second worst recession since the 30s, think we need to look back then for some ideas, rather than the newer recessions. plus with an sp500 p/e well above 500 this market rally makes no sense at all. if we go back to a normal p/e the market must fall almost 90%!!! so no, this is not a bull market correction.

Why Stocks Will Collapse This Fall

based on barron's marketlab stats, the p/e of sp500 is over 500!!! earnings are around 7 (note: a lot of analysts were projecting 40 to 60 range by this second quarter) and world still stuck with massive production overcapacity. would not be surprised if markets came down 50 to 70% from where they are now.


On Jun 18 08:52 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> There are others suggesting we will retest the lows of March in late
> summer or early fall.
>
> The market tends to have an inherent bias to move to the upside and
> it takes convincing events to contain or reverse this bias. What
> I call catalysts.
>
> Any of the following, probably working in some combination, could
> be potential catalysts: a failure to control massive government borrowing,
> deteriorating earnings (Q2 is right around the corner); any deflation
> scenario; realization that the banking system is not fixed; a breakup
> of Citigroup; the putting a pencil to the cost of financial reform
> and healthcare reform; and/or the consequences of decreased consumer
> spending........the effects of which are being seriously underestimated.
>
>
> A slightly different scenario, which could work in conjunction with
> the late fall market collapse, would be for the economy to recover
> very late this year but with inflation. Under this thinking, the
> Fed would allow interest rates to rise to contain the inflation and
> cut short the nascent recovery, bringing about a W shaped economic
> recovery. Most seem to agree that if the 30 year yield gets into
> the 6% territory one should stay on high alert.
>
> I'm not trying to be an alarmist but rather offer readers perspectives
> outside of mainstream financial reporting. Many hedge fund managers
> are in the market doing their thing and exploiting "the trend is
> my friend" meme but, at the same time, they don't trust this rally.
>

Cramer's Mad Money - We Have Nothing to Fear but Missing the Next Rally (3/30/09)

"basehitz" is spot on. good history lesson. again if one uses barron's marketlab sp500 estimate of 26, market is vastly oversold by an order of 60-80 percent. but again, maybe this time is diffrerent. us older folks however have experience that says its probably not.

Cramer's Stop Trading! The GM Common Lottery Ticket (3/30/09)

cramer is a genius. obviously gm has gone to 35 bucks a share.

think at this point chapter 11 is really a stretch. more likely chapter 7 since there is virtually no value in the company left that suppliers can rely upon. why would you ship parts to a company that will not see any ability to pay you for the next five years? or the u.s. government pays all of gm's bills for the next five years made by very angry workers. duh. look at the quality of volvo back in the 70s when workers were told to "eat it'" nope. this puppy is headed to the exits.

Has the Monetization Really Started?

ok maybe i was being too harsh. germany twenty plus years ago required increased paid days off for all workers. gnp(no gdp back in those days) rose, economy improved, end of story. almost. pundits still hated the idea that economic systems are not machines. get on with it!

Has the Monetization Really Started?

gee, is everyone stupid. its the quantum effect. money is what you want it to be. and if you get into a trap, try world war 3.

The Financial Crisis Is Escalating Out of Control

in systems science theory there is a notion that complex systems do become unpredictable once they pass a certain point. that point for mere mortals is when the system's behaviour becomes "strange". for example: inventory goes up in a recession, stock market rises, everyone happy. titanic anyone?

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

always wondered about GLD. wonder if no gold existed behind its facade, what would happen? no one can find out. no regs control it. perfect. think there is a guy in new york city with a similar problem. so now we know next week's story.

Political Will and the 75-Year Cycle

my old cycle out in the barn says everything rusts eventually. at the advent of world war 2 it really was doom and gloom. 20 years later guess what. more things change, etc. too many young folks with computers, if you ask me.

S&P 500 P/E Ratio at Troughs: A Detailed Analysis of the Past 80 Years

still prefer barron's market lab p/e approach. total reported. good with bad. sp500=26 as of this past week. the actual number does not matter as so well discussed above. its the change in that measure and unfortunately its pointing to a very, very over valued market. its a stock picker's paradise and a indexer's hell.