thotdoc

Chance of a Depression Now 5 Percent

IMHO, the chance that we will have a depression is significantly greater than 5%.

In my profession, I have to determine who is psychologically suitable to have peace officer powers. Much of my life has gone to understanding and researching the cause and effect of self defeating behavior, because self defeating behavior that continues and continues ALWAYS ends in disaster, and in that venue, the loss of peace officer powers.

We are stuck with what our politicians do and think is the right thing. All politicians.

The self defeating behavior that effects our politicians is that: 1) Many are ideologues with little practical long term understanding of their short sighted thinking, and 2) they believe we can't just take the hit, pick ourselves off the mat and start over.

Because we allow our politicians to set the course of our lives, we will pay the price. I fear that price will be a depression with all that comes along with it.

What is the chance (%) that a sale of Treasury bonds will not be fully subscribed to, or that the Fed will have to up the % of buying to the point that everyone gets it?

What is the chance (%) that the $ falls way below $1.50 e? That will add to the probability of the above.

What is the chance (%) that countries would rather hold gold, or euro's rather than $s?

What is the chance (%) that the market will tank early next year? Then we will have printing like mad, housing down, market down, and...

Actually I can add other scenarios, so can you.

In all my life, when ever I have screwed up at the magnitude that we as a nation has screwed up, the roof has caved in. Call to your mind anyone who has ever screwed up at the level we've screwed up and gotten away with it forever.


On Nov 17 07:34 PM jessducky wrote:

> Another brilliant Seeking Alpha article..and this one got to be an
> Editor's Pick. So his confidence that the govt knew everything that
> had to be done to avoid a depression led him to estimate the chance
> of a depression at 0% Now the gov't did all those things, and lo
> and behold, the govt got it all wrong and now he raises his probability
> to a whopping 5%, which is still almost no chance at all. Thats
> going out on a limb for you. This article expresses nothing but
> the author's own confused thinking and writing. Wouldnt get a D
> in college essay writing. I long for the old days when you had to
> demonstrate expertise and competence before they let you publish
> stuff that a lot of people would read.