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thotdoc

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  • Why Apple Won't Build A Cheap iPhone... And Why It Should [View article]
    MH-

    I don't believe what you have written expresses an understanding of Apple.
    Apple is:
    Not a phone company.
    Apple is:
    A company that creates the interface between emerging technology and the consumer; an interface that is easiest to use and that makes best use of inter-connectivity.
    Apple is:
    Developing new products and services that will increase the scope of their software environment and market penetration.

    Every product that is in wide use has an aspirational leader; be that a consumer product or a commercial product. As an aspirational leader, you can't have a cheap product....or you are not an aspirational leader.

    Apple does not need to sell anything cheaply, until they see that their product line is not expanding. When Apple starts selling new, cheaper products from within a line like the iPhones, it's time to sell the stock.

    Further, within Apple's culture, taking the route of 'going cheap' would be a leadership sell out when the written and unwritten rules in the culture focus on creativity in order to create and sell products with a certain panache.
    Aug 12 12:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon halts some Disney movie preorders [View news story]
    Let's see, I lead Amazon and I'm happy to be living inside my little world where my company loses more and more money in an effort to become the only retailer....the only retailer....which I know I can do when I can deliver today what is ordered today. Then, when I'm the only retailer I can raise my prices and finally make a profit.

    Other retailers are not my enemy...I can undercut them on price and maybe service. My enemy is companies who produce the goods I want to sell; they seem to want to make a profit.
    Aug 11 11:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 Domestic Dividend Stock To Buy Now And 2 To Put On The Radar [View article]
    This article represents what may be right and what is wrong with technical analysis. What may be right is that the immediate past may be a predictor of the future. What is wrong is that it is based on a linear model of reality; that is it doesn't take into account the conditional probabilities inherent in the situation.

    Events are best predicted by understanding the conditional probabilities surrounding the event, not a linear analysis that considers the conditional probabilities as 'noise' in the prediction equation.

    A huge amount of money is wagered, every day, on 'what will happen in the future'. Predicting the stock market is not my area of expertise; my area is predicting future behavior of individuals and organizations. In this work, I use implicit non-linear equations based on conditional probabilities. Linear equations do not model the complexity of the situations. So, it is amazing to me that the models of prediction in use in predicting what a stock will do next, such as technical analysis, are so conceptually and statistically primitive.

    To develop a model that predicts in this field, there are external factors to consider such as sentiment and fundamentals and technicals, all taking place in a probability situation likely best modeled by game theory and understood using information theory (Google Epsilon Theory for a set of interesting postulates), and the internal factors that control your decision making process...all controlling variance. It seems , as I read these articles, that most people pride them selves on mastering or believing they are mastering one of these external factors, while there is little or no understanding of the combination of factors including each person's internal decision making process.

    If you want to reduce risk and maximize returns, you need to understand the variance controlled by all the factors, internal and external. And, once you do this, you will likely come to understand that the most important factors are internal to you...the decision maker that is assigning conditional probabilities to the various data points that YOU consider to carry the most importance.

    Though very few realize it, the factor that controls the most variance in your decision making process is your relationship with yourself & how you feel about you being monetarily successful. That is not anywhere in the graphs, but it is included in and controls the most variance in your decision making process regarding when to buy and sell.

    If you are successful in your business or profession and are good, not lucky....then it is likely that you've come to understand many or most of the internal and external factors that drive your success in your primary business or profession. It's no less complex in making money in the market.
    Aug 10 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The GLD Today: Looming Weekend Outweighs Interfax Report [View article]
    What does everybody know that everybody knows?
    Aug 8 08:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 355 August 3 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    Thank you for responding.
    Aug 7 04:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 355 August 3 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    "So to begin that process we need a list of the PbC battery's advantageous performance characteristics, including; how these characteristics are defined by the industry, the standard testing methods used the quantify them, and what those performance values are for the PbC battery vs. other competing technologies?"

    Axion has not done this? Axion has no white paper about this? This is not the basis of the sales pitch?

    If that is true, it is part of the problem.

    BTW, I'm not following the blog closely enough to know if this is the real Mr. Averill. If it is, Mr. Averill, when you were on the Board, you did not see the need for this white paper?
    Aug 7 11:24 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Adopting This Mobile Payment Technology Will Be A Game-Changer [View article]
    Not sure there is upside this week...this month...this year....this decade?

    Apple is a buy and hold if you understand their Vision: Engineering the interface between human and emerging technology in a way that creates the interface that is the easiest to use and most beautiful to experience.

    If you don't understand their vision, you believe they are a smart-phone company. In that case, trade it and think you are making real money.

    With Apple, if you want to make it rich, buy and hold over the next 2-decades and you will make the $$ you've dreamed about. I'm long since 12 and 20....several decades.
    Aug 7 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Adopting This Mobile Payment Technology Will Be A Game-Changer [View article]
    "nothing else except massive data-mining of your identity, then targeted ad bombardment. That is really the only business Google and facebook are in."

    I believe this truth is extremely important in the long run. Remember, companies are around for decades...and as the years go on, being out of the data mining loop will become extremely important to many people.

    People will pay a lot of money to not be data mined in the future.

    That spells trouble for companies whose profits come from data mining AND that want to sell to people who have enough money or the cachet of not being data mined.
    Aug 7 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iOS To Potentially Become The Dominant Mobile OS In Enterprise Healthcare [View article]
    Regarding any stock, but especially Apple:
    *Stories about stocks are imprinted in people's brains
    *These imprintings lead to memories
    *The accumulation of these memories...the sum of the memories leads to what is known as a Narrative. You know about Narratives from politics; but it also applies to the stories about stocks, as well.
    *The shorts or longs retell the same information about a stock, say Apple, over and over and over and that forms a Narrative.
    *These Narratives are what underlay Sentiment; Sentiment is what moves stocks...
    *Stock movements as the result of sentiment is what is charted by the technicals and what drives the fundamentals.
    *So, I'm looong Apple and have been since 12 & 20 and want to keep the sentiment positive. If you are long Apple, please take the time to comment when shorts spew drivel.
    Aug 7 10:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Hardware Innovation Is No Longer Enough [View article]
    Apple is a company that creates the best interface between human and technology, an interface that best integrates hardware and software. It is not a hardware company; it is not a software company;it's not a cloud company.
    Aug 5 10:32 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Hardware Innovation Is No Longer Enough [View article]
    So, no one in China or Taiwan or that part of the world will be able to buy one, right?
    Aug 5 10:29 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Reinforces Focus on Quality by Attaining ISO 9001:2008 Certification [View article]
    Sales!!
    Aug 5 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Heck Is Wrong With Big Tech? [View article]
    Lumping Apple in with other companies is a mistake. If you are going to use Apple as an example of something, use it as an example of a company that has a very specific Vision and a very precise long term plan.

    The vision is: Create the easiest to use and most advanced interface between human and technology as technology emerges. So, Apple is not a computer company, or an iPad company, or an iPhone company. Apple is an interface company.

    The Beats purchase was another example of engineering the interface.
    Aug 3 10:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    "Even if I am 100% wrong about the sell-off and AAPL goes to 200 (extremely unlikely, less then a 2% chance of occurring in my opinion), the resultant sell-off from that level would eventually take AAPL back down below 100."

    For AAPL to go to 200, the company would have developed and solidified new and repeating revenue streams...something equivalent to a new iPhone product and, likely the market penetration issues of the iPhone would be understood, IBM would be working, etc. It would be a trillion dollar company.

    Absent the entire market crashing...which may occur...exactly what would have to happen for AAPL to go from 200 to less than 100?

    I read your article, and you are certainly entitled to an opinion, but the quoted statement makes me value your opinion less.
    Aug 2 07:54 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Inc. To Become EBITDA Positive By Mid-2015 [View article]
    I'm a long term believer and share holder...sometimes trader.

    Show me the sales!

    BTW. Article on Friday afternoon...really.
    Aug 1 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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