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thotdoc

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  • Tim Cook's Tipping Point Boosting Apple Shares [View article]
    If Jobs was your Boss...do you think a congressman could make you sweat?
    May 24 10:44 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 238: May 21: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    Hope it works out the way you wish,

    G
    May 22 12:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    A really clear explanation, thanks,

    G
    May 22 11:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    I love it..."touch it, it's dry".

    Maybe I need some help, too.

    Is it really dry? I want to believe that. It seems dry...but I'm still waiting for a fly to touch down and get stuck.

    OK. It's dry. Let me sit with that for a while.
    May 20 09:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 237: May 16: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    In some ways, the Concentrator is our enemy to feeling comfort with the pps...too much thinking about too little going on.

    So, I try to stay away. But, am pulled back in because "if something good happens, I want to know".

    Realistically, we are long and maybe many long months from any real increase in stock price...then it will likely be plateaued at some intermediate level...I hope above my average price....but at a plateau price, and not likely a price I'm or you are really happy with.

    This is not a Telsa...for what ever reason. Look at the Telsa cars..how visceral they are and look at a battery. What excites you? Where is the hype for better batteries that will drive the price b4 something really happens regarding customers and volume of sales.

    It is a company with a seemingly mundane but revolutionary, largely not understood product. Not well understood even to the customers who should understand the product. But, that is changing.

    If you feel discouraged, are you focusing on the difference between 'BMW is testing the battery' and 'BMW is telling their battery makers to help bring this product to us in a way we can use it'?

    Should that raise the price? Yeah, for us believers. But unless you are a certain type of believer, why buy? You know this will be a long process with ups and downs in the price. Why buy now? No real reason.

    To be successful in this type of investing you cannot be a person who spends money they need, nor be a person who spends a lot of time second guessing them selves. It also does not help to be a person who always seems to sell at the wrong time.

    If you liked this story when it was a pure hype dream...that is, when you paid what you paid for the shares you bought... what's not to like about where we are today in terms of productivity and applications...and a major who is pushing to use the product.

    Think of all the decisions BMW has made regarding designing future product that is expressed in their need to get multiple bases of manufacture for the battery. Look at all the production and legal issues that must be ironed out b4 BMW can use the battery, even if they wanted to now.

    I believe we will eventually have a very decent, maybe juicy pps. when big, real customers are telling their battery manufacturers to buy our parts in volume and when we are really profitable...and when people understand that company that makes a part for batteries is a good investment.

    Why do battery mfgs resist? First, maybe they aren't resisting. They can't make the battery in volume. We just learned we could make the battery in volume. Second, we will likely make more money on our part than they will make on their entire battery. Wouldn't you resist?

    So, I am OK...even happy with where we are. We could still go down the tubes. But, it is much, much less likely than it was last year...much less than when most of us started buying our shares.
    May 16 05:14 PM | 32 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
    Don't get excited.

    Just realize that the investment is a good investment.

    Remember JP's elephant hunter graph of stock prices?

    Now, look at where we are.

    It still may not work...so don't get excited.

    Just feel OK with your ability to smell out an opportunity, sit tight, keep looking for companies that fit the elephant hunter's graph...and, next time don't buy stock in the company till they are where we are now.
    May 16 10:20 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
    D-inv-

    Concretely, you are absolutely correct. Some car mfgs. make lines of cars that don't sell big volume. Typically, these low volume cars are brand leaders.

    Try to think like a manager in a big company. Does s/he think, "I'd like to bet the brand on a very small company, with very little mfg. ability, with a revolutionary process of manufacture in one location, a manufacturing process they completed last month, with a revolutionary product that requires completely or largely rejiggering the electrical system in the product the battery will go in to"?

    No.

    No, or very, very few, mid level managers in a big company think that way.

    I'm pushing this perspective because I believe we are incredibly myopic when it comes to risk management in large organizations.
    May 16 10:04 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
    Metro-
    I've been in their position when on the Board of a bio-medical start-up. Most people just don't have 50-100K$ to invest. The people with $$ invested $$, the workers on the Board put in what was likely serious $$ to them.

    I don't understand the lingering downers people are going through. I know we are not out of the woods yet. But, we are so much further along than we thought just several weeks ago.
    May 15 11:32 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
    We've seen other battery mfgs. adding carbon paste, etc to their offerings. From one perspective, they are trying to not work with us. From another perspective, their product doesn't work and they can't work with us because we have been making paper doilies by hand. They couldn't use us if they wanted to, so they went ahead with what was next best for them.

    I don't think we've appreciated exactly how the primitiveness of our mfg. process has kept OEMs and other battery manufacturers from working with us. Along the same lines, JB said we can produce 450 products a day...450 a day. That's big $$ for us, but I think a bubkas number for a car manufacturer.

    Re multiple sites of manufacture: another major impediment to an OEM and a situation that every really new product that will work with established industries must face.

    Maybe things are going much faster than we think. We are only looking at this from the perspective of: Everyone should get it as we get it and just buy it...when there is so much more to this.

    We love it because it is a revolutionary battery. Then we forget that it is NOT a drop-in product...it's a battery that takes revolutionary manufacturing to make and revolutionary software/hardware to make use of it.

    How long does that take in a mature market? Years and years. We just got a real manufacturing operation going; just putting away the pinking shears. Again, maybe this is going very quickly.
    May 15 10:03 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 234: May 8: Axion Power Completes Private Placement For $9 Million And $1 Million [View instapost]
    Why do you believe Axion has dropped the automotive focus?
    Do you know what their focus is?

    Thank you for being here and for answering.

    Gordon
    May 12 06:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
    Being a veteran of start-ups as Board Member and investor, insider investing, at this level, is just very good news.

    If everyone on the Board simply put up $10,000-20,000.00, I'd be worried. That would be save face money. Here, some insiders put up serious money.

    Either, they are being stupid or know something. I'll go with the latter.

    The Board knows what is occurring in the pipeline. The amount they put up and the terms they accepted indicate that we can expect good things to come.
    May 8 11:16 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks continue to grind higher, the S&P 500 +0.9% and the Nasdaq +1.1%. Apple is again a leader in the market, +1.9% today, and up about 15% from two weeks ago. Notably not participating today are the big banks, but the insurers - MetLife and Prudential post-earnings, and AIG pre-earnings (reports after the bell) - are charging higher. [View news story]
    15% in two weeks may
    May 2 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 230: April 24: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
    Thanks. If only....
    Apr 24 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy (FCEL +4.1%-) moves higher again today, continuing its climb after upping Q2 guidance last Thursday. Adding a bit of clout to the announcement was the disclosure on Friday that a number of insiders bought shares , including its Chairman and one of its Directors who each bought 200K and 100K shares, respectively. [View news story]
    This has been a long hard slog. And it was never so clear as now that the pps would finally sail up. Why?

    FCEL will show a profit this year...and it is only the beginning if you keep up with their story and backlog.

    The two insiders, quite in the know, with a lot of shares owned already, ponied up $90,000+ dollars and $180,000 + dollars. These were not $10-20,000 shows of support; these are significant amounts of money. And, a clear message.
    Apr 22 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 229: April 20: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
    I also believe that sales did not really start until the entire manufacturing line was fully automated. That anyone bought a hand made product is an amazement to me.

    Consider this conversation:

    Battery buyer: "Yeah Boss, I want to commit us and our future to this new battery company, with a revolutionary battery that they make by hand."

    Boss: "They make it by hand?? You want me to bet part of the business on something that's made by hand?"

    Battery buyer: "Yeah!"

    Boss: "Come back when they are a real business. If something goes wrong and we end up in court, can you imagine the deposition questions about negligence and hand made products. You're making my stomach hurt. Don't bring this up again..Unless they automate the whole process. And, I'd be a whole lot more comfortable if there were two manufacturing sites. What happens if we buy their batteries and build our business around their batteries and they have a plant fire, or a hurricane or an earthquake. Look, this must be some salesman you're dealing with. Get outta here!!"

    Battery buyer walking down the hall back to his office..To himself: "The Boss is right. That battery guy is some salesman. What was I thinking..A hand made product."
    Apr 20 11:08 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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