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thotdoc

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  • Bank Of America's Day Of Reckoning [View article]
    DD-
    I applaud your hope that the banksters' worst practices may hurt the chance of people investing in the stock. But, if that was the case JPM would be in trouble...and it's not as far as I can tell.
    Oct 28, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Metals Exceed Their September Highs? [View article]
    Charles-

    Please reread what I wrote. There are three conditions, a) the group mind without the manipulation, b) manipulations from outside the group mind that effect the mind, and c) as time passes the same repetitive manipulation is integrated into the group mind.

    From a statistical standpoint, we are dealing with a sampling problem, conditions a & b & c are from three different populations. Is that more clear?
    Oct 27, 2013. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Metals Exceed Their September Highs? [View article]
    Avi-
    I believe I understand your analytic approach:
    1) Humans are run by emotions, not rationality,
    2) Humans in a group develop a 'group mind' based on some unknown summing process of the valence of the overall emotions within the group...this is the basis of group psychology, and
    3) There exists a charting method for representing the vagaries of this summing process of this group mind.

    Ok, I have 40 plus years working with individuals, groups and organizations. The above is true, and hopefully what you are doing.

    The problem is this: In a naturalistic system, with no manipulations whose purpose is to undo the processes effecting the group mind,the charting process, assuming it actually charts the vagaries well, will work.

    As conscious manipulations effect the vagaries of the group mind, the predictive power of the charts of the group mind is lessened. This increases problems in predictability.

    However, over time, the group mind will take into account the effects of the manipulation...as it takes into account all information. This suggests that if the charting method is predictive, that following it will be an effective method of prediction.

    I enjoy your articles.

    I do not understand, however, how you can predict an upper price limit, as that is as group mind bound as the lower limit. But, I'm looking forward to reading and learning.

    Individuals who trust their intuition concerning pps action and are effective in basing their trades on that intuition are using a group mind model without realizing they are doing so..
    Oct 27, 2013. 01:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Increase Its PC Market With Free OS Updates? Yes It Will [View article]
    I'm invested in Apple. Not a fan boy. I believe that free software IS a big deal. Apple is building a completely integrated system. Each machine talks to every other machine without the need for software that translates.

    No other manufacturer is able to do what Apple is doing: Building a system of machines, from wearable through server...with all stops hit in between personal, home and office...using a common processor or bit structure that reads a common software, that is protected by heavy encryption.

    That's their strategy. Let's not lose seeing the forest by getting lost in the crevices in the bark.

    If you think that strategy has merit and future growth, invest in Apple.
    Oct 26, 2013. 01:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Free Software Announcement - Much Ado About Nothing [View article]
    The decision makers at Apple, or any really successful company are making decisions based on the context of their future plans and strategic analyses, which they live within 24-7. When an author presents an opinion, such as one given here, he is thinking within a context that is far different and less well developed strategically, than the company decision makers he is writing about.

    Based on past history the decision makers at Apple make strategic decisions years and years ahead of what they roll out (think A-7, encryption, etc).

    I'm invested in Apple. Not a fan boy. I believe that free software IS a big deal. Apple is building a completely integrated system. Each machine talks to every other machine without the need for software that translates.

    So, if you are interested in Apple as an investment, move away from the individual tactics and look at their strategy.

    No other manufacturer is able to do what Apple is doing: Building a system of machines, from wearable through server...with all stops hit in between personal, home and office...using a common processor or bit structure that reads a common software, that is protected by heavy encryption.

    That's their strategy. Let's not lose seeing the forest by getting lost in the crevices in the bark.

    If you think that strategy has merit and future growth, invest in Apple.
    Oct 26, 2013. 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In Amazon.com [View article]
    Paolo-

    You have been a market observer for many years. Every once in a while there is an Amazon, or a Telsa rising to irrational heights...but rise they do.

    Is there a list of sentiment factors that end up overwhelming the rational factors that are common to these situations?
    Oct 25, 2013. 11:12 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 278: Oct. 25 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Well said
    Oct 25, 2013. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Gets A Rating From Tim Cook [View article]
    I'm sorry, but getting one or two things right in a lifetime as a CEO doesn't make Ballmer a genius. He is just one more example at MS that is MS is lucky, not good.

    Otherwise, very readable,

    Thanks
    Oct 24, 2013. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy moves higher on new production plans with Posco [View news story]
    BTW, the real resistance is about in the $1.60 range.

    Do your DD, then decide how to make the $$ you've always wanted to make in a multi-bagger.

    I think it best to have core and trading positions.
    Oct 24, 2013. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy moves higher on new production plans with Posco [View news story]
    FCEL is the only sole product fuel cell manufacturer, whose stock you can buy, that has patents and products using the chemistry for kw and mw applications. Kw is used for homes and mw are used for large building and grid applications.

    FCEL has mw applications in use in Asia, the US and Europe.

    The ONLY reason the stock is at about $1.30 is because the company has not been profitable, though it has over $300,000,000 in backlog.

    This announcement of moving from 70mw to 100mw in production ability means that FCEL will be or is currently profitable. The CEO has repeatedly stated they need to be at about 80mw to be profitable.

    Is that the train whistle I hear? Yep, this puppy is leaving the station. There are still a few hills right ahead, but...this train is finally leaving the station.
    Oct 24, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Age When Being Wrong (Again And Again And Again) Just Doesn't Matter [View article]
    For me, at least, the idea behind my PM strategy is: You can only screw the pooch for so long (act in a way that increases the probability of a significant problem)...then there are consequences.

    I say financially, we have been screwing the pooch for long enough for there to be consequences.

    What those consequences will be open is open for debate. That there will be consequences isn't. This time isn't different.
    Oct 24, 2013. 10:59 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FuelCell Energy Announces Market Development Updates in Asia for Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Fuel Cell Power Generation [View article]
    This PR is a look into at what the penetration of fuel cell products into a green society look like. It is a picture of one of the major cornerstones of how our future electricity needs will be met...Produce the green electricity where it will be used...in the building...or as close by geographically as possible. That model solves so many infrastructure and reliability problems.

    Note, this is quite different than using sun or wind and still needing to develop the infrastructure to carry that electricity from where it is produced to where it is used and still needing to develop and implement a frequency regulation process.

    The wide and efficient use of sun or wind requires very expensive battery set-ups and sophisticated frequency regulation systems. Fuel cells create the electricity where it is needed, using existing infrastructure at a price that is the average cost of grid based electricity.

    FCEL, the company, makes that model happen.

    FCEL, the stock, is about $1.30 per share.

    Not for long. The train is leaving the station.

    FCEL is profitable at the manufacturing rates discussed in the article, greater than 70MW per year. The company should be profitable in this or the following quarter.

    Some naval gazing: Why will fuel cell cars be the standard when ICEs fade away? Electric cars in general use will require massive amounts of electricity that are not available today or that will require more infrastructure. Let's not even discuss the need for rare earths in batteries being used in these cars or the problems in recycling these rare earths.

    So, your car runs on hydrogen, your house and office building use hydrogen for power and air-conditioning. The infrastructure to provide all that hydrogen is already at your house and at the office building.

    Note: For cars and houses and the grid/large office buildings, we are talking about two different forms of fuel cells; one form for kilowatt applications, used for cars/homes...and one form for megawatt applications, used for grid and office building applications.

    FCEL is the only fuel cell company, whose stock you can buy, that manufactures both types of chemistry.
    Oct 24, 2013. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Keynote Announcement: Selling Software Is A Thing Of The Past [View article]
    "Microsoft is the innovator, Apple is the sales guy."

    Really?

    After being involved with computers and computer companies since the days when you needed to program Fortran to use a computer, I know Microsoft has been lucky, not good.

    Years...decades ago, we replaced all PCs with Mac SE's. We've never looked back. Why? We are a consulting business and every hour an employee struggles with a computer is an hour not with clients.

    Windows helped that. But, to this day, we have been forced to keep some Windows machines for specific applications. Thankfully, even that is changing. All the programs we use are now available in the cloud. So, out are going the 2 new Windows 8 machines we bought. Windows 8, what a complete pos.

    Apple is moving on the Enterprise. Much greater security. True integration of OS throughout the product line. No software charges. Less IT cost. Less downtime.

    In a big company, you don't mind paying more up front, once. You have the $$ and it's a write off. But, you don't want to be saddled with ongoing charges multiplied be the number of employees you have.

    Apple has a Vision. SJ may be among the missing. But, creativity and Vision in application and implementation and furthering how to make things work at Apple are still alive and well.
    Oct 23, 2013. 10:43 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 277: Oct. 19 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    TB, thanks. Made my evening
    Oct 21, 2013. 07:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HSBC sees gold price rebound, upgrades Barrick Gold, other miners [View news story]
    Sentiment is slowly changing.
    Oct 21, 2013. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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