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thotdoc

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  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    Teller-
    If you believe what you wrote, invest accordingly.

    JP often says, I can explain it to you but I can't understand it for you.

    BTW, I'm not missing the biggest stock market boom in history. My investments are doing very well...and I'm sticking with the gold I bought at 900 and the silver at 11.

    I believe that in the next several months the bottom is in for the PMs and I an edging back into them...they represent a safety net as I do not believe that those running the financial markets have an adequate understanding of risk. So, banks are too big to fail...does that tell you nothing? It means that bankers are free to try to maximize profits at NO RISK.

    How well does giving greedy people who actually believe they are the best and the brightest work out when you tell them...do what you can imagine to make money...BTW there is no risk to you.
    Dec 13, 2013. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bullish Thesis Is Alive And Well For Ballard Power Systems [View article]
    I'm sure there will be room in the future for oil as long as it is competitive with other sources of energy.
    Dec 13, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury sells 30-year bonds at 3.90% [View news story]
    brro-it was 11.94 on a lot less principle.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bullish Thesis Is Alive And Well For Ballard Power Systems [View article]
    I also own HYGS. The interesting thing about HYGS, other than its products, management, etc. is that there are apparently only 9MM shares. I bought many fewer shares in HYGS than the other companies because: It is so thinly held and thus can be volatile, and they will have to split 10 for 1 to just get to 90,000,000 shares, which is not a lot of shares.
    Dec 12, 2013. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look At Fuel Cell Energy To Take Advantage Of The Energy Revolution [View article]
    People move on for so many reasons. I would re-evaluate my position if I found they had been lying and my belief in the company's future was compromised. I do not expect that will occur since I've been following the company since the 1990's.

    Quite the opposite, I have been heartened by their focused, conservative and determined approach.
    Dec 12, 2013. 09:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Google's Nexus 5 Leave The iPhone 5s In The Dust? [View article]
    I traded in an iPhone 4s on a 5s and got $210.00 credit.
    Dec 12, 2013. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spotight 2014: Plug Power Inc. - A Major Turnaround [View article]
    Good article. Thank you for your analysis.

    The hydrogen revolution follows the age of oil. Looking back in a decade that will be all too clear. Looking forward all I see is lots of ways to make investments that will have very high rates of return.

    If my thesis about the hydrogen age coming is true, we are in the position as investors, that investors would have been in at the start of the industrial age and at the start of the information age.

    We can see the niches developing: BLDP is transportation and telecom based on PEM, FCEL is Grid power and distributed energy based on MCFC and SOFC, PLUG is materials handling based on PEM. There are many other opportunities, but those niches are set and moats are being built.

    So, the macro question is whether or not there will be an age of hydrogen that replaces the age of oil? If that's the case, then the investment thesis for the above companies is a good thesis.

    I believe there will be a hydrogen age, but I'd love to hear what others think.
    Dec 12, 2013. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bullish Thesis Is Alive And Well For Ballard Power Systems [View article]
    Good article. Thank you.

    The hydrogen revolution follows the age of oil. Looking back in a decade that will be all too clear. Looking forward all I see is lots of ways to make investments that will have very high rates of return.

    If my thesis about the hydrogen age coming is true, we are in the position as investors, that investors would have been in at the start of the industrial age and at the start of the information age.

    We can see the niches developing: BLDP is transportation and telecom based on PEM, FCEL is Grid power and distributed energy based on MCFC and SOFC, PLUG is materials handling based on PEM. There are many other opportunities, but those niches are set and moats are being built.

    So, the macro question is whether or not there will be an age of hydrogen that replaces the age of oil? If that's the case, then the investment thesis for the above companies is a good thesis.

    I believe there will be a hydrogen age, but I'd love to hear what others think.
    Dec 12, 2013. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    tell-
    Everyone has an opinion based on the way they process information and the data they process. We process information differently. So, we have different opinions.

    I see the financial world as eminently in danger based on the following belief: You can only screw the pooch for so long until you have to pay the piper.

    Now, that belief is a truth you can trust. It is based on the physical principle of entropy and how entropy effects open living systems. If you want to discuss the effect of physical principles on open living systems..I'd love to because I have 40 years of research in understanding that subject and I apply it to understanding human behavior and other open living systems.

    Everywhere I look, people in financial power are screwing the pooch. There will be a price to pay. What price, I don't know...but it will be commensurate with how long and how hard the pooch has been screwed. When, I don't know...but I don't want to be one of the suckers left holding the bag.

    Another truth to live by: There is no free lunch. The budget deal is a free lunch., Printing your way to the bottom and not expecting inflation at some point is a free lunch.

    When the costs come...this year, next year, in two or five years...there will be a price to pay for screwing the pooch and expecting a free lunch.

    If you believe what I wrote about the pooch and free lunch...have some PMs to provide security.

    If you believe what your government tells you and you believe Congress is doing its job, don't have PMs because you don't believe the pooch is being screwed and you believe there is a free lunch.
    Dec 12, 2013. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look At Fuel Cell Energy To Take Advantage Of The Energy Revolution [View article]
    Both interesting and years away from actual results. I'm responding to you for two reasons., this blog is about: Is FCE a good investment? Second, there are many impressionable readers and potential investors I want to educate, and many people become confused by worries engendered by What ifs.

    Let's say for speculation that in the next decade the best way to provide GRID energy through fuel cells is through a change in chemistry within a fuel cell.

    First, I'll already have made my killing on FCEL and so will every one investing now...that comes in the next 5-10 years.

    Second, that FCE is caught flat footed by these changes doesn't make sense. FCE is a research based company with patents and processes in MCFC and SOFC...they can buy PEM when and if they want. If I am going to speculate, I'll speculate they will be aware of chemistries that threaten them and will act accordingly. The company in Germany that is FCE's partner is a 1.5 Billion dollar a year research institute that had a fuel cell research arm. They sold the arm to FCE and is now their partner. They are continuing research into fuel cell chemistry

    Third, Look at the moat FCE has developed. Let's say I develop a new fuel cell chemistry that threatens MCFC. I still have to figure out how to manufacture it in scale AND I need to convince all the behemoths in the energy industry...the PG&Es, the Dominions, The NRGs, etc that they should convert over to my chemistry. Not going to happen unless FCEL is dead at the switch. We are at the beginning of adoption as the behemoths recognize that the old model of energy creation and transmission are dead. They are placing their bets with FCE.

    Fourth, a fuel cell is not a fuel cell is not a fuel cell. In the future, fuel cells will replace many sources of energy from many types of batteries to grid based generators. Every different sized electrical need, within a specific range, will have a different type of cell chemistry. Let's stop thinking that PLUG is FCEL's competitor or that PEMs will be stacked big enough to replace MCFC. People smarter than we are have already seen the writing on those walls. Look to UT leaving the fuel cell field for the truth in that statement.

    UT is a premiere technology company. They decided not to compete with FCE. GE has not begun to compete with FCE at the grid level, they are going after batteries, not fuel cells.
    Dec 12, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    You seem to have answered your own question, sentiment of the masses is almost always wrong and is a contrary indicator.

    We are looking for a change in the sentiment of those who have been in opposition to the current trend held to by the masses.

    So, we would expect that gold, with sentiment being at an abyss with the masses, would be bottoming and going up soon. And, if consumer and advisor sentiment is peaking and everyone agrees that everything is fine, it's getting close to the time to pare back or get out. I'd prefer paring back as I'm not a market timer.

    Most advisors do not beat the market in their sector, because they are in a specific group...crowd...that all read and respond to the same information...respond to the sentiment within their crowd.

    Was this helpful?
    Dec 11, 2013. 01:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    The sentiment is sentiment towards a specific object;the object could be the market as a whole, could be a sector, could be to a stock.

    Right now there is a shift in sentiment towards sector: fuel cells and all the fuel cell stocks are going up in price per share.

    I'm asking here if the sentiment is changing towards PMs, not are the gold bugs doing what they always do.

    One way to measure sentiment is to read a lot about the object without coloring what you read by your personal fear or greed.

    Another way to measure sentiment is to go inside yourself and ask how you feel about the object, not what do you think. Sentiment, as we are using it here, is a shared emotion.
    Dec 11, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    teller-

    I've come to believe the market very often works on sentiment, which is the summed(valence plus or minus) and shared emotions of a crowd. This is the basis of understanding crowd behavior. This is what has been called the 'voting machine' rather than the weighing machine. From reading all sources, including people who are definitely not gold bugs, this sentiment has come up with/is coming to with a consensus that the bottom will be in within the next 3 months. This article seems to support that; seems....

    I'm not a gold bug, though I have invested in PMs since silver was 11 and gold was 900 as the situation globally economically is being run by people I wouldn't hire to be employees in my business...which requires a strong ethical stance and concern for the welfare of people who trust us.

    The sentiment towards the PMs appears to be changing when I read blogs by people who are not gold bugs. I was asking if others had the sense that sentiment was changing regarding the PMs. I could have done a much better job in clarifying my question.

    Dec 11, 2013. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One For The Ages: Stunning Positions In Both The Gold CoT And The BPR [View article]
    I hardly think Avi Gilburt is a bug blog. Try asking for more information before opining.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look At Fuel Cell Energy To Take Advantage Of The Energy Revolution [View article]
    Doewap-

    Your comment would only make sense if every house put in small fcell units and we completely shut the grid down.
    Dec 10, 2013. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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