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  • The True Genius Of Tesla [View article]
    What is funny, in a strange sort of way, is that JP is just being dispassionate in analysis. Like an Uncle to his less experienced nephews and nieces. And, the nephews and nieces keep saying, "I want to do what I want to do" the face of the Uncle's good advice. Then, they say, to rationalize their emotionally driven behavior, "You just don't understand...and then give a reason that is reasonable enough, but is completely unrelated to the issue at hand.

    JP does not dispute global warming, as far as I know. He does not dispute that burning fossil fuels is a problem. He has nothing against American ingenuity and our ability to solve big problems with new ideas. That's what he does for a living, help new companies solve big problems.

    JP writes that specific problems are best resolved by solutions that actually solve the problem...lithium batteries are great for portable devices, much less great for other problems, and that lithium batteries and many other solutions he has discussed use resources that cannot be replaced or that cannot be recycled.
    All that is true. Please spend hundreds of hours in DD before responding.

    In this case, JP is saying that co-mingling funds is not good business practice, and it is not. There is no established profession or long term enterprise that will allow for the co-mingling of funds. When something goes wrong, and it will because it always does, some of those people who were told their funds were co-mingled will sue, for a myriad of reasons. And, the corporation will have to pay huge legal expenses and settle. Settle???? Yes, all this has been played out in court; the fact that 'you told me you might lose my money' does not stop me from successfully suing you and winning in front of a jury that has been similarly burned.

    The man who is behind Telsa may or may not be a genius. His behavior in this case takes advantage of others for his own benefit and he is able to get away with it, until he can't.

    I'm over 70 and have been working since I was 11. I've been investing since I was 23, and working with people who made bad decisions and then suffered the consequences for over 40 years.

    Over the course of my life I've seen many men and companies like Telsa come and go. IMHO, at the end, the driving force behind this company will suffer a great fall. And those who could not see it will lose their investments or own a car that can't be fixed.

    Quit shooting the messenger; JP is clearly has strong opinions, but he stands behind his statements with thousands of pages of analysis and data. You can't really win this argument without understanding the issues and by changing the argument in mid sentence of by hating the person presenting the argument.

    If you disagree, stick with the argument. For instance in this case. You might say, "JP, I disagree with you that co-mingling funds is wrong. I believe it is OK to co-mingle funds. I am willing to give my money to a business so it can use my money to build the product I want that but that may or may not be delivered."

    Write that statement down and look at it. Give it to your spouse to see. Let a few friends look at it. Better yet, if you strongly believe in a green cause, give your money to politicians who will fight that fight. Just don't shoot the messenger; he's trying to tell you something that may turn out to be important to you.
    Dec 20 11:13 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold's Technical Picture Is Broken; Collapse Coming [View article]
    You may be right. But, the fundamental story is investors are withdrawing because of what is occurring in Europe and the metals are incredibly the face of Central Bank buying and gold beginning to be used for collateral at banks.

    I'm holding onto my PM bets. A bumpy ride doesn't bother me or many others.
    Jun 25 09:47 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 282: Nov. 10 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    The size of the project is a disappointment to me, if this is what TG was referring to previously. We will see during the CC.

    However, the sale for a working unit, not a proof of concept model, furthers the company's profile and adds to the volume of 'noise' that says that the Axion battery works as advertised. Others in the same industry will be watching.

    If I were running the grid for an island nation, and I had to develop a system specifically for the Axion battery, I'd want to see a large project in operation. Why?

    Let's say, I'm the grid guy for a small island nation. I am not a battery expert. Salesmen have come to me in the last few years and presented their pitch and I believed them.

    I hear lead is good...maybe I try and the batteries don't recycle well. I try lithium....they catch fire and have weather related problems. I begin to think that battery salesmen are liars. I'm thinking this solar plus battery thing will not work. I do not even know about Axion. Several years have gone by and I haven't done what I told my boss I'd do...get a solar and battery electrical source going.

    Now, I'm no longer naive about the promises of battery salesmen. When I hear about Axion, the first thing I ask is "Do you have a project that is working and has been working for years?"

    Axion says..."Well, we do some things for the Navy...but they don't release much data...and we have one set up over here attached to our building, and JPM has a regulation set up...But, no...we really do not have a customer that has bought and installed exactly what you want to buy."

    The moral of the story: Other battery salesmen made the first easy sales to trucks, and rail roads and autos and grid based customers when everyone was naive. Their batteries did not solve the customers' problems. The early adopters took it in the shorts and they screwed the pooch for Axion. Now, almost all early adopters have been burned and they are now wary and they all want to see if this Axion battery salesman is telling the truth.

    I believe, we know more about the strengths and weaknesses of the different types of batteries than most buyers. Sales to ePower, NS, Viridity/PJM and others are beginning to develop noise in the niches that sounds like the Axion story is true. That's great.

    But, still when you look into using the battery in your niche, you find that it requires special electricals...nothing off the shelf and the company seems to have to send engineers to make it really work in your application.

    The batteries may be no longer a developmental product, but the entire battery electrical control process must be developed for each new class of customer. This is a business development that Axion was likely not prepared for, or thought was down the road, because of all the problems they had to overcome in producing the batteries.

    I believe sales will not get going in the way we wish until:1) Axion's customer niches are clear and well defined. 2) Potential customers are educated in exactly what the batteries do and do not do,3) Axion has a complete battery electronic control process, as well as tuned batteries, off the shelf for every customer niche, and4) There are customer in every niche and these customers problems are solved, so the customer can get back to selling their value proposition.

    I still believe in Axion and will ride it up or down. JP has talked about the valley of just looks easier and quicker to go through on a chart than in real time with all these $$ I have sunk in.

    The truth is it takes more time than you want when you are standing next to the river of money and want to lower a bucket into the river. If it was easy to make a killing in the market, there would be amany more really rich people.

    I've written this before re FCEL. It took me the better part of a decade to make that investment work. I'm in the black, but no 10 bagger yet...even with a backlog of over $300,000,000 that keeps the company busy until 2016, the probability of a true profit this quarter, a patent and manufacturing moat that caused United Technology, their only potential US competitor to sell their fuel cell unit, and FCEL's current manufacturing facilities on 3-continents...all producing grid based or MW fuel cells.

    Axion will happen for us...Nothing to do but wait.
    Nov 13 11:58 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 281: Nov. 07 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    "The PbC is best suited to rapid shallow cycling in applications like ePower, stop-start, hybrid locomotives and short-term renewables integration; power applications that have far greater value than the intrinsic value of the stored energy. "

    You have made Axion's value proposition so clear. As far as I know this mantra is not front and center on the website...and it should be.

    The value is not in the battery.

    The cost is not the cost of the battery.

    The value of the battery is what the battery facilitates and makes possible. Small cost differences are almost irrelevant given the value of what the battery facilitates.
    Nov 9 12:48 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 275: Oct. 14 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    I posted this on JP's SA piece on Axion and several asked that I repost here...though I think it may be redundant as I imagine most here have read JP's piece. Anyway:

    "OK. Let's see if we can get past people who seem to have a bone to pick with JP.

    New types of batteries are needed if we are to cut our use of carbon based fuels for numerous reasons that are clear to everyone who invests in green energy sources.

    The biggest problems that batteries face in working within the green energy paradigm are partial state recharging, string behavior that requires complex and expensive battery management systems (BMS), and extreme temperatures due to how they effect the battery, and in only some cases weight, but in all cases cost and being able to be recycled.

    In situations where weight is not an issue, but being recycled and extreme temperatures are issues, where the cost of string behavior is a major issue, and where partial state recharging is THE issue, the Axion battery is the only player that has been proven to work effectively.

    The truth of this statement has been established by multiple year research programs that have been presented in peer reviewed papers by BMW and NS. Now, we have a small private company making products with Axion batteries after trying all other reasonable sources.

    Axion says that they have some big sales in the pipeline that will be announced by MId-November and that they have enough money to last until they will need more money to increase production beyond their already sizable capacity.

    NS is currently presenting a paper about the use of the technology, and showing off their new Axion powered locomotive to the engineering public in a presentation sponsored by the Federal Railway Commission, and has applied for and received patents for using Axion batteries in switching locomotives. NS has been researching this process for more than 5 years and has gone fully public with Axion as their battery partner. Each yard switcher uses over 1000 batteries...there are thousands of yard switchers currently spending about 70% of their time with engines idling. A practice that must be curtailed if RRs are to meet federal clean air guidelines.

    BMW has researched the Axion battery for years and has gone public years ago with Axion as a partner, and has asked Axion to develop secondary manufacturing capability with a tier 1 battery manufacturer. Cars will be moving to 48 volts ans cars are being increasingly electrified. When BMW moves to 48 volts it will likely be with Axion batteries. Axion has stated that BMW and Axion have meetings twice a month. This IS an ongoing project.

    If ePower is successful, they will need tens of thousands of batteries.

    We have not even discussed island nations that need to get off carbon based fuels and in moving to wind and sun need batteries with Axion's characteristics, or several other major applications.

    So, if all that is interesting, do your DD and buy 50,000 shares for about $6,000.00 or what ever multiple feels right to you. Or, be fully safe, which is reasonable, and watch the train leave the station."
    Oct 15 04:10 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 233: May 5: Axion Power On Panel At Energy Storage Economics 2.0 For New York City And Beyond [View instapost]
    Being a veteran of start-ups as Board Member and investor, insider investing, at this level, is just very good news.

    If everyone on the Board simply put up $10,000-20,000.00, I'd be worried. That would be save face money. Here, some insiders put up serious money.

    Either, they are being stupid or know something. I'll go with the latter.

    The Board knows what is occurring in the pipeline. The amount they put up and the terms they accepted indicate that we can expect good things to come.
    May 8 11:16 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence [View article]
    Please give us the facts that you believe he is overlooking.

    On Aug 26 11:04 AM Albert DeKoven wrote:

    > John's large position in AXPW cause him to come to conclusions which
    > the industry will not likely come to. I believe he is ignoring facts
    > that are contrary to an increase in the value of his stock position.
    Aug 26 11:33 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 303: Feb. 8 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    I fully agree. I've been on Boards of small companies that were financially shaky. Taking in rounds of investment capital means that you need to show you are doing everything correctly. There may not be many lawsuits against Board members, but when you are in the hot seat, you do not want to be a test case.

    Unless this man is just a risk junkie, or desperate for the few $$ he will get out of this, he comes with good motivations and beliefs that this will not be a waste of time and increased risk.
    Feb 10 10:56 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 302: Feb. 5 '14: PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Honestly, I do not believe that the man described here would board a sinking ship. There is too much responsibility gained by being on the Board of a sinking ship that is NOT made up for by some shares and fees.

    This is great news.
    Feb 7 04:06 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 284: Nov. 16 '13: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    And if it takes as long to bring this to fruition as it does most new revolutionary batteries, I'll have cashed in on AXION and left batteries to other investors who will, in their own time, learn the truth about batteries and battery salesmen.

    Nov 18 11:22 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 283: Nov. 14 '13: Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Dilution is not a major concern of a CEO. The company going forward and being profitable is the concern. He will not address dilution as an issue without it being brought up and then all he can say is: At a certain point the choice is dilute or close the doors.

    All who are concerned with dilution made the decision to buy with inadequate DD; we bought the dream with our greed. Hey, that's me raising my hand and saying I resemble that remark.

    The question for shareholders now is what to do next in terms of buying shares. There is no right answer, only two ways to suffer.
    Nov 16 11:46 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 260: August 15: 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    "Significan orders on our next call:.

    As they said in my old neighborhood: "OK, sukka. Put up or shut up!
    Aug 15 11:57 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FDIC will propose tomorrow that major bank execs have 50% of their bonuses deferred for at least three years to help curb excessive risk taking. After three years, the execs can receive varying amounts of their deferred pay depending on the performance of the company during that time.  [View news story]
    What is your solution to banks taking excessive risks?
    Ideology without solutions that work to solve real world problems will not fix the mess we are.
    I do not like government intervention any more than you do. But, I can see problems that need solutions.
    I do not see a solution other than setting limits on people who cannot set limits on them selves.
    This solution sets limits without impacting the banksters ability to make as much money as they want. They just have to wait a bit to get it to make sure that they really made the money.
    Feb 6 02:17 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things That Could Halt Gold’s Run [View article]
    Everything you say is theoretically true, but has little practical value, for me. Gold is a hedge for big players and those who do not believe what they are fed by the mass media and the government..

    Gold's run will not be halted permanently until the financial uncertainty that is apparent throughout the world is neutralized.

    For me, the only thing of interest re PMs is understanding the specific data that will lead to the inflection point that will occur when Gold is not needed as a hedge.

    Let[s talk about that. That has practical value.
    Dec 28 12:09 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 236: May 15: Axion Power Releases Quarterly Report For The First Quarter 2013 [View instapost]
    We've seen other battery mfgs. adding carbon paste, etc to their offerings. From one perspective, they are trying to not work with us. From another perspective, their product doesn't work and they can't work with us because we have been making paper doilies by hand. They couldn't use us if they wanted to, so they went ahead with what was next best for them.

    I don't think we've appreciated exactly how the primitiveness of our mfg. process has kept OEMs and other battery manufacturers from working with us. Along the same lines, JB said we can produce 450 products a day...450 a day. That's big $$ for us, but I think a bubkas number for a car manufacturer.

    Re multiple sites of manufacture: another major impediment to an OEM and a situation that every really new product that will work with established industries must face.

    Maybe things are going much faster than we think. We are only looking at this from the perspective of: Everyone should get it as we get it and just buy it...when there is so much more to this.

    We love it because it is a revolutionary battery. Then we forget that it is NOT a drop-in's a battery that takes revolutionary manufacturing to make and revolutionary software/hardware to make use of it.

    How long does that take in a mature market? Years and years. We just got a real manufacturing operation going; just putting away the pinking shears. Again, maybe this is going very quickly.
    May 15 10:03 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment