Seeking Alpha

thotdoc

thotdoc
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View thotdoc's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Axion Power Concentrator 178, Nov. 21: John Petersen's Axion History & Prospects; Q3 '12 Rpt; SAE Truck APU App; Rosewater & Queens Univ. Partner On Distributed Energy Study; 13th ELBC: Axion's "Operational Stability Of PbC Batteries And Battery Systems" [View instapost]
    Happy Holiday! My hope is that the most difficult decision we face at Thanksgiving time next year is to which charity can we contribute some AXPW loot.
    Nov 22 03:30 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 144: Aug. 24, 2012: Axion Power Reports Second Quarter Results For 2012 [View instapost]
    You will enjoy my new book, No More Faceplants, on a lot of levels. It's about why we defeat ourselves, based on 65 years of scientific research taking place in 50 countries. I'm one of the researchers in the field.

    In summary, at 50,000 feet: What drives our lives is seeking emotional safety. We do this by how we manage our relationships, attachments, with ourselves and our relationships with others.

    Every one has a very distinct 'attachment strategy'.

    Some people have attachment strategies that are self defeating (insecure) and some people have attachment strategies that are secure.

    Being secure, attaching securely, is NOT about doing things that feel good.

    It's about doing things and relating to others in ways that help you love and admire yourself, love and admire others, as appropriate, and be able to accept the love and admiration of others. This is a tall order that can take a long time to achieve.

    Self esteem was an early try at understanding this and is a bankrupt idea.

    People seeking the easy way out in life by trying to always do things that feel good, eventually are crushed by all the things they didn't face up to and do.
    Aug 25 12:40 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter 2012: The Beginning Of An Earnings Collapse [View article]
    JK-
    I've read your articles faithfully. After one article, about 6 months or so ago, maybe longer, I dutifully sold my Apple. What you said and say resonates with my logic. Except, except...the market since 2008 doesn't really follow the kind of logic you ( and I) are using. I got that and I bought back my Apple and have since made a bundle.

    What kind of logic is going on? I have no idea, so I'm about 50% in.

    Now, after a long time of being wrong, and I admire you because you give specific advice, when the market does fall, please don't crow about being right. The market will fall.

    I have no suggestions for you. I hope you finally get it right and then tell us how you figured it out. I could use more wins and I really don't have a clue about how the market is working.

    This much I do get: effectively timing the market, in the short or longer term, is related to the timer's cognitive and emotional functioning. Examples: Some people live and think in the moment and are neither optimistic nor pessimistic and feel OK about being successful, so they should be day traders that do well. They may do less well in longer term trades because of their cognitive biases. Some people are naturally pessimistic, they do well in choppy down markets. Some people do not really experience them selves as successful and they self destruct. Some people are risk averse and buy high and sell low. Etc. There is more luck than good out there. I'm a very long term thinker and this market does not seem to follow principles related to any long term model I can see. I may be very blind.

    I think it's a case of knowing how you process and manage information and knowing how you feel about you really becoming monetarily successful, and then finding a timeline and a level of risk you can tolerate information.

    I wish JK the best, he will win or lose being short depending from the point at which the market mirrors his internal logic. Short may be good for now, but bad if you have been holding it a long time before the market agrees with you,
    Jul 2 10:02 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stop-Start Realities And EV Fantasies [View article]
    So, there seem to be 2 arguments and 2 sets of cars. There are cars for people with a lot of money to spend on cars and who have a strong interest in EVs, and there are people who need a new car and want the car to perform EXACTLY the way their cars have always performed, but get better mileage. Many here are confusing a hope and a dream with reality. And, the confused is not JP. Please stifle your rage for a minute and read on. I think electric cars will be great, but lets look at the following.

    For people who are capable of plugging in their cars because they can predict exactly the mileage of their drives, have a garage and want an EV, and can pay the up charge, then one of the EV cars is a viable option. Absolutely no argument.

    But, the vast majority of people do not live in houses with garages, or they split cars between people, or do not use cars as commuters only and need to be able to extend driving on a whim or on an emergency. They do not use their cars for for Sunday drives.

    These people use the car as a machine and they buy what they can afford on monthly payments. They want better mileage with least cost and change in their habits. Most do not trust a bleeding edge technology. Then, there are people who get great mileage from their 1.4 liter ICE with turbo.

    Let's say you buy an EV and it is your only car, the car you use every day all day. Let's say your EV goes 100 miles, you were tired last night and didn't plug in, or your teenager took the car and didn't plug in, or your teenager went for a drive and is now without power and calling you from the lake front where he was making out with the radio and air conditioner on, and is now stuck, or your spouse calls and says that there was an accident and you need to get to the hospital and you don't have the power and there is no plug where you are. I could go on.

    It is for all these reasons, and many others, that virtually all professional forecasting consultancies say that EVs will be very small potatoes for a very long time.

    SA is about investments; JP is talking about where to investment. People who can't hear him are not talking about where to investment, unless their mantra is Telsa.

    If you are looking to make enough money to buy any car you want, you are going to make a lot more money investing in the companies that will bring us stop start, than companies that bring us pure EVs.
    May 22 12:50 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 355 August 3 '14: Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO; Share Reverse Split And Authorized Share Reduction Approved [View instapost]
    "So to begin that process we need a list of the PbC battery's advantageous performance characteristics, including; how these characteristics are defined by the industry, the standard testing methods used the quantify them, and what those performance values are for the PbC battery vs. other competing technologies?"

    Axion has not done this? Axion has no white paper about this? This is not the basis of the sales pitch?

    If that is true, it is part of the problem.

    BTW, I'm not following the blog closely enough to know if this is the real Mr. Averill. If it is, Mr. Averill, when you were on the Board, you did not see the need for this white paper?
    Aug 7 11:24 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 300: Feb. 01 '14: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    My wishes for a change in our luck
    Jan 30 12:19 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 294: Jan. 04 '14: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    D-Inv-

    Thanks. It does give us pause to think.

    And, while I am truly not trying to send people out to buy more shares, I can tell you that after accumulating FCEL, BLDP,PLUG and HYGS at levels I thought were sufficient to slake my greed, should they become successful...I can tell you I do not feel that I bought enough shares.

    It is a funny feeling wanting the share prices to go up on the one hand and down on the other so I can buy more.
    Jan 8 01:32 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 271: September 30: '13 AGM Feedback, 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    This is why I noted earlier that AXPW has a branding problem. In branding, you state in a few words what you do and how what you do differentiates your product from other (similar) products.

    As we market now, we make batteries for trains, trucks, mini grids, etc. So, if I don't have one of those I don't know I need the product.

    We actually have the perfect solution for anyone who needs very fast charge and discharge, especially for large amperages in hostile temperature environments.
    Sep 30 10:35 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 265: September 04: 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    LT-
    Presenting both sides adds to your credibility.
    Sep 4 11:15 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 207: Feb. 10: Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications Norfolk Southern [View instapost]
    Stuttering is most often related to anxiety and intense personal harshness. An alternative, that someone's brain is working so fast that their mouth cannot keep up, suggests mania, also the result of intense personal harshness. An alternative is a physiological deficit.

    Mania and grandiosity are related. Grandiosity is often not recognized until one's ideas continue to fail over the long haul...no matter the interim success. An example is "I can take all these performance enhancing drugs, keep it from everyone...though I do it in front of others...and win 7 Tours". Sometimes it takes a long time for things to play out. It's better to not put people up on pedestals.

    I do not follow Musk. I do partially remember his quote that stated that the battery makers lied to him...or were not truthful.

    That he built this vehicle without understanding the true limitations of the batteries, suggests overconfidence, at the least. This is the kind of decision that when it blows up, hurts one's image.
    Feb 12 12:13 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Battery-Powered Locomotives: Compellingly Green Economics [View article]
    If NS didn't believe it worked they likely would have not filed a patent. But, I appreciate the conservative approach....it just gives me more time to buy shares at .40-.44.
    Apr 30 12:01 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt," said Ben Bernanke in 2002. "Potentially, this class of asset offers huge scope for Fed operations." With the ECB's hands apparently tied as the eurozone crisis threatens to spiral out of control, has the time come for the Chairman to step in? "The Fed needs to buy up every single European bond owned by every single American financial institution for cash," says Brad DeLong.  [View news story]
    This is BullShit. I get to pay more for the mistakes of the best and the brightest woe are doing God's work?

    When does the FED by my indebtedness?
    Nov 27 04:01 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Shiller's 2020 Target for the S&P 500 [View article]
    Anyone that honestly believes they know what will happen in 10 years is delusional.
    Jan 2 01:43 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Letting Xiaomi Grow Rich [View article]
    A cynical/realistic view is that this is a quid pro quo between China and Apple, either explicit or implicit.

    I am always amazed at people second guessing Tim Cook. He is, after all, running the most successful corporation in the world...that the world has ever seen.

    I know this is true for me and likely true for everyone haunting SA: We do not have an iota of understanding of what TC knows today, what he sees coming down the pike in terms of technology (consider the level of conversations he has with engineers within and without the company), and what Apple's product and service responses will be to those opportunities and challenges as technology emerges.

    And let me remind you:

    Apple is not a smart phone company.

    Apple is a company that engineers the interface between humans and technologies as they emerge; engineers them in ways that make the technologies easiest to use and beautiful to look at and touch.

    So, the threat to Apple is not a cell phone company. The threat to Apple is a company that does what Apple does, better and cheaper than Apple.

    Good luck with that. Especially considering the leadership team that Apple...errr...Tim Cook has developed and the research budget that Apple has.

    Really, the biggest threat to Apple is if something happens to Tim Cook.
    Aug 15 03:09 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple may make largest acquisition with $3.2B Beats deal [View news story]
    second that
    May 8 06:09 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,417 Comments
2,515 Likes