thotdoc

Sales Growth Expectations of S&P 500’s Top Performers

With analysis like this, good luck.

A Worm in the Apple?

If AAPL goes down, it will not be because of the cver story. It will be because Chrome based phones steal it's thunder and because the 'tablet' bombed.

If iPhone continues to romp and the tablet is all it could be and people love it, look out above.


On Nov 20 05:00 PM Techtrader10 wrote:

> While I have never used the Bollinger Band theory, I do understand
> what the author is saying about the magazine cover. Its the kiss
> of death for a stock. For those of you who are not supersticious,
> there is no need to worry. For those of us that have seen it happen
> too many times in the past the cover and story comes at a time when
> the stock has hit a new high on less than exciting news and a less
> than exciting economy. Apples computer sales are soft, the iPod
> has no exciting new models, and the iPhone seems to have a new competitor
> coming on the market every week. Verizon has also been doing a very
> good job of showing people why they should be using a smart phone
> on their system and not ATT (the carrier for the iPhone). So no
> one compelling reason to say Apple has topped out, but many small
> reasons to make the case. As we all know stock price is a function
> of anticipation. Look at the stock market since March, stocks have
> priced in an economic recovery which has yet to show it self. While
> I currently have no position in Apple, long or short, I suggest people
> still long the stock do as the author of this article suggests, look
> into ways to protect your positions in the stock.

Apple: Weaker Dollar Will Benefit Revenue Growth and Margins

I believe that Apple does not really compete with other PC makers; Apple provides a certain feel good to owners of its products. Everyone else sell machines that do things.

If that is correct, and I think it is, comparing Apple to other machinery makers is not really a comparison that will lead you to a good decision.


On Nov 03 02:31 PM Shaftsinker wrote:

> In the event of a continuing decline of the US dollar, the edge provided
> to other computer manufacturers and Microsoft will significantly
> outperform Apple.
>
> The increased strength of the Euro and Yen relative to the US dollar
> will pale in comparison to the strength of the currencies of emerging
> economies, where Apple's presence is negligible and PCs dominate.
>
>
> My point is a declining dollar will merely help Apple's competitors
> bridge the gap. While Apple may still lead the pack for other reasons,
> it will lag its competitors in the edge provided by a sinking USD.

Why Apple Is Worth $80

Now I understand why analysts are wrong so often.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

You are so right. The future is not about sitting at a desk using a PC.

The future is about wi-fi is used to the max, cloud computing used to the max.

Understanding that and investing properly will make you a lot of money. Apple understands that to spades and has and will position themselves to be in that sweet spot. Jobs is a visionary and sees that and is working towards that sweet spot.

Please don't confuse the history of 'computer-use' with the future of it's use. In this case the past and the future don't rhyme.

You're getting stuck on the word computer in the phrase "computer-use.". Think computer-use focusing on use.

Apple is about use, not computer.


On Oct 24 10:21 AM FloridaBoy2 wrote:

> I don't know about the $500 price target but *I* would not bet against
>
> Apple. There is a lot going on under the hood. K-Mart did not think
> WalMart was a threat either. I am not Dr.Teknicle but there will
> be big changes in this arena in the next few years.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Apple and Microsoft are not in the same market...they sell similar products.

MS is in the market of commodity computer uses and ideas.

Apple is in the market of "Cool lifestyle."

These are not the same market.

Now, I hope Apple goes to 500. I own shares.

And that it 'might' be worth more than MS, is irrelevant to what might happen. A lot of things happen that 'shouldn't' happen.

Let me predict. The stock will continue to outpace the general market as long as Steve Jobs is alive. When Steve Jobs dies, the stock will fall horrifically...very fast.

What happens next is based on his successor.


On Oct 23 10:48 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

> Microsoft was not releasing an ever expanding product line that changed
> the way we live. Oh yeah, they talked about how the OS of the future
> would be voice activated, but that never actually materialized.
> They kept adding more and more complex and buggy "features" to a
> word processor and a spreadsheet. They updated a slideshow program
> (that admittedly runs corporate America). But they stalled. They
> thought adding transparent layers was an important part of a new
> OS (why?). They said that we would be doing more and more on the
> web and then proceeded to bloat a bad browser with "features", but
> we actually did more and more on the web because of Google and Adobe,
> not Microsoft. They took every opportunity to tell us they had the
> future in their hands and every opportunity to show us they had no
> way forward. Comparing MS in the 1990's to Apple now is just silly.
> There is an actual reason to think Apple will expand and grow --
> it is releasing substantially new and/or better products every couple
> of years. It is gaining market share and makes a killing with each
> sale. MSFT was suffering from consumer boredom and shrinking margins
> in the 1990's. Different story, different stock, different trajectory.
>
>
> And, oh yeah, I never get investment advice from Econ 101 students.
>

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

During the past 5 years, something has changed about Apple's culture.

In the past, they were reticent to compete. They were cute and did what they did. (I bought my 1st Apple computer in the early/mid 1980's.)

Now, they are competing.

I love it, but....What happened?

Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?

The only screw up I fear is ...something happens to Steve Jobs.


On Oct 22 09:26 PM Tom B wrote:

> MSFT tells the world that splitting hardware and software is an "advantage"
> that builds "competition". Sure, HP, Asus, Dell, Lenovo can all fight
> tooth and nail over who can ship the cheapest piece of junk that
> still boots. It's a shortsighted, flawed business model, in my view.
>
>
> I'm holding my Apple at least til they hit 25% US computer market
> share. That should be an achievable goal. In fact, I think they COULD
> hit 100%, but I'm a conservative investor--who's to say they won't
> screw up at some point?

38 Reasons the Google IPO Isn't the Big Deal Some Are Making It Out to Be

What is the point of this article?

No news. No ideas. Not an article that would leave me wanting to have these people advise me.

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

We had a similar situation in our business, which is consulting. I had 9 Psychologists working at the company, it's in the 1980's and we buy the latest 286's. No client contact or billing for 2 days as everyone is struggling with their computers and trying to make e-mail, appointment calendar, the local network, etc work.

I totaled up the lost productivity in $$$, called the company we bought the computers from and purchased Mac SE's...16MHZ. We kept them for the better part of a decade.

We all run iMac's now.

I had occasion to need to run a Windows based program recently at the office. At home I run it on my powerbook pro using VMW simulation. So, I'm at the office trying to set up the program...hours of wasted time.

MS will continue to shrink in size. Give 100 people a Mac and a PC. Ask them how the emotionally feel about the products. Remember folks we are not rational we are emotional when it comes to decision making. People will say they love the Mac. They will not use the word love with a PC.

Oh, you don't think your decisions arte emotionally based? Let's see. So you think the biggest decisions of your life are rational. Let's list them and see: Falling in love, staying with a relationship, getting married, having children, how you feel about your family and how they effect your life, the profession you choose if your profession suits you, whether you love your profession, your house, your car....let me go on.

The import to investing? Forces within you that you likely do not understand will determine if you make and keep money or not.

Best,

G


On Aug 13 11:16 AM never going back wrote:

> I remember my first day on a the "real" job I got back in 1995.
> The firm had just bought "locally built" PENTIUM!!! PC's pre loaded
> with Win 95. They did not work the day I walked in and two out of
> three didn't even boot up properly. The local company who sold/built
> the computers was upset and repeatedly sent out their techs to fix
> these towers of trouble. 4 weeks later!!! and 5-7 visits we could
> boot up and print. After many years of crashes and troubles, including
> the IE browser upgrade that infected the network. Windows thought
> it was installing a virus!!!! That was over $2,000 to fix with one
> of our helpful techs (not that helpful) always the complaints were
> of Windows but they all still drank the koolaid. XP might have
> been the best product but it was boring, not as fast as it could
> have been, and very susceptible to virus' the more you surfed online
> (a growing trend then). Why was the whole world stuck in PINTO
> mode for their PC's I always wondered? I have never liked MSFT's
> junk and I finally switched over once Apple switched to Intel hardware
> (like many I was always checking dumbed down PC specs vs. Mac's and
> it was then that I knew Apple was finally a buy for my house computing
> needs and my portfolio's needs ;)
>
> What a life saver!!! Apple is everything MSFT is not. The iPhone??????
> don't get me started that is the sword through the weak heart of
> Windows Mobile and MSFT's future, Yeeeh!!!!! What a POS that software
> is when I have checked out my friend's mobile Windoze phones. Typical
> MSFT!!!!! By By Mr. Softie don't let the door hit you in the rear
> as you fade into tech history!!! Atari/Commodore/Sun/soon: Microjunk

Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product

You read my mind. The perfect situation here is: We finally get the pullback and are able to buy AAPL for less than it is now.

Just hoping.

G


On Jul 25 10:45 AM Cpowell wrote:

> I've been long AAPL for a while for many of the reasons given above.
> I own a 3GS (gave the 3G to my wife) and did my own comparison to
> the Blackerry models and the Pre. The craze for RIMM prior to earnings
> I could almost understand, since most analysts use Blackberries and
> hated iPhone 2.0 and its lack of cut-n-paste, etc - ("Apple doesn't
> have anything the enterprise biz"). 3.0 corrected some of this bias.
> But PALM with its Pre? What kind of irrational euphoria drove that?
>
>
> But staying long AAPL or in fact any equity going into September
> may be a big gamble. When the Q3 numbers start coming out (notably
> employment and GDP) will there be reason to sustain this rally?
> I have my doubts. We'll see.
>
> Anybody want to call the S&P 500 - where do you think it will
> be on Oct 31, and Dec 31?

Cramer's Stop Trading! A New Tech Era (7/22/09)

I do not understand why Cramer gets ANY space in SA. Can someone enlighten me?

Thanks,

The Mac vs. PC Debate Was Never Clearer

If your computer is fun for you and you want it to be easy to use and have the coolest features,(ie, you are emotionally involved) you buy a Mac.

If the computer is a tool and you approach the purchase in the most rational fashion, you buy a PC. But then, you have to go back and use the Windows 98 operating system. I use a VMC simulation on a MacBook Pro and have tried the various Windows operating systems. As far as I can tell, '98 is the best of the lot.

G

Both are valid options. I do not believe $$ are really the issue. If you want to save $$ and have the Mac experience, buy a Mini for $599.00.


On Jul 23 04:11 PM Gamechanger wrote:

> Thanks for such a well written and insightful comparison. The Camry/Porsche
> analogy is spot on.
>
> The only point I would add is that you don't see Porsche owners running
> around like elitist bores brow beating Camry owners for owning a
> less expensive car. As someone who has owned both Apple and PC products,
> I am always amazed at the rudeness of most Apple owners who make
> fun of PC owners.
>
> While I'm sure most Camry owners would trade their wheels in for
> a Porsche in a minute, such an analogy misses the point: Most Camry
> owners don't have the money to do so, and more importantly they don't
> really need the performance of a Porsche to commute to work or take
> the kids to soccer practice.
>
> The same is true with Apple's Mac computers - for what I use my PC
> for, I really don't need to spend 3 or 4 times as much for a Mac.
> My hunch is 95% of computer users are in the same boat, which is
> why Mac share always floats around 5%.
>
> Thanks again for shedding light on a tired subject. Perhaps after
> this, Mac owners will show a bit more restraint and perhaps some
> manners before belittling someone's economic status.

Apple's 3.0 Update Is a Sirius Game Changer

I have a lot of content I carry also. Even with 40gigs I get tired of hearing the same music over and over.

G


On May 17 10:43 PM Al wrote:

> I have one problem with paying a monthly fee for satellite radio.
> I already have the music I like on my iPod touch. I also already
> have the video and audio podcasts that interest me and that I usually
> listen to and/or watch regularly synced over to my iPod. Local and
> national news is on my car radio. I am not a sports nut.
>
> What do I need subscription radio for?

Cloud Computing Gets Some Lofty New Support

Cloud computing requires dynamic infrastructure...vmWar... Akami are good plays.

Long both as well as AMZN who can teach everyone about how the cloud works.

G


On Mar 08 06:06 AM Zoltan L. Kovacs wrote:

> A key to successful cloud computing will be ease of use and stability.
> Apple will be a great player in this field, of course Google too.