CuriousMonkey5

Global Markets in Review: Emerging Markets Showing First Signs of Retrenchment?

where would you put money if not into cash? thanks-


On Aug 09 07:18 PM Suzanne H. wrote:

> A couple of things concern me. This global crisis was caused by too
> much debt, and the bailouts didn't solve the problem but only moved
> the risk from the private sector to the public sector. From what
> I see banks have not reduced their leverage levels, and in fact it
> may be higher than last year. Add to that no job creation and no
> credit expansion in the commercial arena (or even worse commercial
> credit is contracting) -- nothing to indicate a sustainable recovery.
> That's not getting into the fact that program trading is the source
> of around 70% of market volume. Furthermore, I would still give the
> economy the benefit of the doubt if it were not for such high levels
> of bullishness out there that has us as professionals having to discuss
> whether or not this is still a bear market rally. The scariest thing
> is if we indeed have a new bubble, this one being a "bailout bubble",
> and something that the fed would be helpless to fix as they won't
> be able to inflate another bubble -- this could lead to systemic
> collapse. The bailout bubble meets every definition of a bubble and
> then some: dollars are printed at will, not backed by anything, and
> don't lead to production of any tangible goods. Over the long run
> this could kill the dollar, but for the next year I see the dollar
> going higher -- for complex reasons so I stick to technicals because
> I have difficulty following reasons, maybe one of which is a military
> backing of the dollar for now, and maybe because the only way for
> our country to avoid collapse is to get into another war -- something
> I only pray will not be the case.
>
> To add more gloom since I am on such a roll here, the comparisons
> to 1929 are very appropriate, and if anything I see that our conditions
> are worse this time not better even though most refuse to think of
> this as anything more than a recession or even better that the recession
> is already over everybody. It took 3 yrs to get to the bear market
> bottom from the top in 1929, and that didn't end the depression.
> If inflation really takes off, something I put a very low odd for
> now because credit is still being destroyed even faster than the
> fed can run digits on a computer...but in such a scenario it is possible
> that we put in a higher low than March. Most likely that won't be
> the case.
>
> My best guess and how my models are predicting this market to play
> out is a retracement to 950/920/880/850 (bear trap) area and then
> another rally to 1100 (equivalent to 50% retrace) to set up an even
> bigger bull trap before dropping to the march lows or lower. The
> more bearish option is we don't go higher than a 38% which is exactly
> where we closed friday so we are close to the start of the final
> leg of the bear market this month or next. Needless to say, this
> is not going to be an easy market to play any asset class (even cash
> is looking foolish these days), as I don't see the global markets
> decoupling -- some have definitely gone up more than others, but
> they all still rise and correct in tandem.

Fannie Mae Needs $1.7 Billion in New Treasury Capital

You've got Dems in the whitehouse and with a supermajority in congress right now, and you want to claim that Republicans are pulling their strings? That's conspiracy-whacko logic...


On Aug 08 12:47 PM Bob 123 wrote:

> Liberals are trying to debate these very important issues. But then
> all these not-too-bright right wing loony rent-a-mobs show up at
> the town hall meetings, stirred up by talk-radio/Fox news lies and
> misinformation with the only intent to make meaningful debate impossible.
>
> Your 'beloved' Republican party who not long ago controlled everything
> in a similar way are the one's pulling their strings.
> Also -- those Democrats you mentioned as supporting the Iraq war
> have since recanted and apologized for being duped by Bushco. Would
> that there were more decent Republicans who could be so honest and
> forthright.
>
> On Aug 08 11:31 AM Brad Johnson wrote:

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Unfortunately, there is reams of evidence that efficiency does not reduce overall energy use. Why not? Because people change their behavior (e.g. drive more), and also buy other devices (e.g. snowmobiles, jet-skis, extra cars, etc). Check out Huber/Mills on this subject.


On Aug 01 04:31 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Better get yourself a new abacus. Perhaps it was the newspaper gene
> in me that made me screech my car to a halt when I saw a near riot
> in progress at my local total Toyota dealer. The showroom was more
> jammed than the unemployment office, with eager salesmen recalled
> from vacations manning card tables set up in every available space.
> I managed to grab one peripatetic salesman by a lapel, who gushed
> that they sold 45 cars yesterday, compared to ten for a normal Friday,
> and that 35 of these were due to the Cash for Clunkers program. Sure
> I could get a $4,500 credit for my 1995 BMW (17 mpg), and apply it
> to a new Prius (50 mpg), taking the price down to $19,500 and the
> monthly payment to $450/month for five years. In fact, the government
> stimulus program was so successful, that it ran out of money in the
> first four days, and congress rushed to triple it to $3 billion on
> Friday. It was like the survivors of a ship torpedoed at sea were
> swimming frantically for the only piece of wreckage that floated.
> Assuming that the average car drives 10,000 miles a year, and the
> average swap generates a mileage improvement from 15 mpg to 27 mpg,
> junking 750,000 clunkers will save 30 million barrels of crude a
> year, 1.5 days of our total annual consumption, or three days of
> imports. I asked to see the cars that were traded in and was told
> that the lots for the dealer, the used cars, and the detailer were
> all full, but I could see some if I went to the Target nearby where
> they were renting extra spaces. There I saw the fleet condemned to
> clunkerdom, GM Safari’s, Jeep Cherokees, Buick Regals, Dodge Ram
> pickup trucks and vans, and Chrysler minivans by the dozen, all
> with “CFC” marked on their windshields, a certain death sentence.
> These sorry excuses for transportation will never belch blue smoke,
> nor drip oil on our interstates again. I can’t imagine a sorrier
> commentary on the management failure of the US car industry for the
> last 30 years.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Look up "tragedy of the commons." Your neighbor's new car isn't the same type of thing as shared infrastructure.


On Jul 31 04:30 PM KingGeithner wrote:

> Well, then I don't want to help pay for your kid's education, or
> the roads you drive on, or any other service you use from the government
> that I may not be using either.

Intuitive Surgical: Great Technology, Tough Environment

There are probably better stocks to short than this one, which is a great long term buy and hold. Great business with lots of upside (growing procedures per machine, more machines purchased eventually, international growth, more doctors trained on them, new types of machines being developed, etc).

Las Vegas City Center Saga: Disgruntled Buyers Demand Bailout

Are you short MGM?


On Jul 06 06:54 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Expect to hear more bad news. One can’t help but be overwhelmed by
> a sense of history walking by the Las Vegas Strip’s City Center;
> unquestionably one of the worst commercial real estate disasters
> ever. The glitzy, ultra modern, Cesar Pelli designed. 63 acre complex
> occupies the quarter mile between the Bellagio and the Monte Carlo
> Hotels and will become one of the wonders of the world if it is ever
> finished. Nearly completed are the Mandarin Oriental, Aria, Veer,
> Harmon, and Vdara Hotels, offering 4,000 rooms and 2,600 condos.
> They will be adorned by two casinos, a convention center, a new theater
> for the Cirque du Soleil, an enormous shopping mall, and parking
> for 7,500. The finished project will employ 12,000. But strikes and
> overruns sent costs soaring to $8.5 billion, and the project is now
> hopelessly behind schedule. I saw a total of one worker in a cherry
> picker working on the building with a screwdriver. The other guy
> going up in an elevator turned out to be a lender contemplating a
> jump off the top. Kirk Kerkorian wanted to build the ultimate Sin
> City destination resort when his MGM-Mirage partnered with Dubai
> World years ago. The relationship has soured, with Dubai World filing
> suit against its partner for negligence and mismanagement, which
> it later withdrew. The bigger question is who is going to stay in
> these rooms? Those who financed trips to Las Vegas with home equity
> loans or subprime credit cards definitely are not coming back. If
> the project files for bankruptcy, it will leave a gigantic eyesore
> at the heart of the tourist area as a monument to excess, in a city
> of excesses. Unfortunately, what happens in Vegas doesn’t always
> stay in Vegas, as a financial collapse would send shivers through
> the industry globally.

House Throws Away Big Money in Cap-and-Trade Bill

I see a typical Liberal sycophant is out tonight.

Mischaracterize the last 8 years. Blindly parrot a path to ruin, then bitch about dialogue among people who actually have a clue how dangerous the current administration is to the future of this country.

Big Banks in Trouble: Huge Mortgage Write-Downs Seem Inevitable

typo - should read: "someone who does..."


On Jun 25 12:53 AM CuriousMonkey5 wrote:

> "Join the party" logic is part of what inflated the bubble in the
> first place. Party if you choose, but don't expect there to be no
> hangover afterwards. Whether you're willing to sacrifice your credit
> rating, your conscience, your name, whatever -- you will still pay
> a price, if not now then later.
>
> If you think you're a victim for making a bad decision, or that someone
> who doesn't step up to their responsibilities is an ass, please do
> the rest of us a favor and go live in a different country. In case
> you hadn't heard, the leeches don't always win; they're going to
> be increasingly on the defensive as the anger level from honest,
> responsible people in this country get sick of their BS. Grow up.
>

Big Banks in Trouble: Huge Mortgage Write-Downs Seem Inevitable

"Join the party" logic is part of what inflated the bubble in the first place. Party if you choose, but don't expect there to be no hangover afterwards. Whether you're willing to sacrifice your credit rating, your conscience, your name, whatever -- you will still pay a price, if not now then later.

If you think you're a victim for making a bad decision, or that someone who doesn't step up to their responsibilities is an ass, please do the rest of us a favor and go live in a different country. In case you hadn't heard, the leeches don't always win; they're going to be increasingly on the defensive as the anger level from honest, responsible people in this country get sick of their BS. Grow up.


On Jun 24 08:37 AM ebworthen wrote:

> What morality?
>
> The example set by the government bailing out the banks and insurance
> companies who turn around and pay out millions in bonuses is this:
> gamble, lose, and be rewarded.
>
> People who are underwater in mortgage or behind in credit card debt
> are PAID a bonus for it or have half the debt "forgiven".
>
> Moral Hazard!
>
> If you are responsible you are getting SCREWED.
>
> Why not join the party? Think about it. Is it "moral" or "right"?
> No. But how long will people play the mule or Ass?
>
> HUGE credit card defaults and people walking away from underwater
> mortgages. Why be an indentured servant to the government and banks?
>

Big Banks in Trouble: Huge Mortgage Write-Downs Seem Inevitable

Hmm...walking away from your responsibilities when times get tough...isn't that what everyone blames the wall street banker types for?


On Jun 22 08:20 AM Gill wrote:

> Say what you want Milkweed (first comment), but I owe over $2M in
> mortgage debt and my homes (7) are worth about half that now. My
> "commission only" income is down substantially. I am seriously considering
> walking away from all of it and renting for the next 5 years just
> so I can get a good night's sleep. I don't believe I am alone.

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

You have to smoke a lot of pot to think that there is no such thing as scarcity. Come back to reality, please.


On Jun 10 06:39 PM YourHealthyPlanet.com wrote:

> Global situation and the US situation is all based on scarcity. And
> that has been a lie now for 35 years ... check the history, start
> getting an education and study one of America's great independent
> thinkers R Buckminster Fuller and you will quickly know what to do.
>
>
> Even the word 'economics' means "The study of how scarce resources
> are or should be allocated." (Oxford dictionary)
>
> Just as 'the world was once flat', and many centuries later the people
> were informed that it's not; similarly many thinking people are understanding
> that there is no scarcity, changing the context creates new behavior,
> such as generosity, being free, sharing, excelling and having everyone
> succeed.
>
> In an abundance context, which is what exists today (despite all
> of the trillions (of paper money) of indebtedness) ... which only
> means something in a scarcity economy, there is no theft, no jealousy,
> no resentment, no fear and no 'need to go to war'.
>
> Do some of your own research and find out what's so.

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2

How do you figure tax-and-spend, buying union votes, and nanny-state handouts amounts to "cleaning up the mess once again" ?? Putting everyone on the dole doesn't do a thing to make us productive and prosperous. You can't make a free lunch out of thin air; this isn't the Jetsons..


On Jun 08 12:27 PM Bob 123 wrote:

> Baron,
> this is an investment community discussion site and you will find
> very little sympathy for the plight of the common man here.
> These people overwhelmingly voted for that dry drunk GWB, for no
> other reason than they thought they would get tax cuts.
> Spending, bloated budgets, crazy foreign and domestic policy -- who
> cares. Greed reigned supreme.
> Now that (shudder) a democrat has to clean up the mess (once again),
> the hypocrits are rediscovering their supposed 'fiscal-responsibility'
> roots they were ignoring for the last thirty years to be as obstructionist
> as possible. Politics, like the markets works in cycles. If Obama
> fails as they are rooting for, then another right-winger can take
> the helm and get us back on a wartime economy and social conscience.
> Best for profits, not so good for the people, but who cares about
> them anyways. The "I got mine" crowd do not care about any future
> beyond their own.
>
> On Jun 08 09:08 AM redbaron wrote:

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

Baloney. Effectively forcing lowered lending standards distorts the market price signal of houses. You can't put bananas in the tailpipe of a Lambo and then say the car doesn't run fast. Let's throw out the bathwater here, but not the baby as well.


On Jun 09 03:08 PM zagrebzagreb wrote:

And may I remind
> you, it was free market deregulation that created the circumstances
> we are now in, not Obama.

Mortgage Market: 'Utter Chaos'

Please. Europe is in worse shape than we are. The chickens will come to roost there, you'll see. There is no free ride in this life.


On Jun 05 03:20 PM American in Paris wrote:

> Where do you come up with this nonsense? No one who is intelligent
> and has a good opportunity to live in Europe would choose to stay
> in the laissez-faire States.

Why Did Bernanke Say What He Said?

Clinton only balanced the budget by happening to be in office during a time of windfall tax proceeds from the tech/stock boom, and cranking up tax rates to capture even more of that fortuitous windfall. The times made the man, in his case.


On Jun 03 03:19 PM VennData wrote:

> Clinton balanced the budget, with basically the same group in Congress.
> It can be done again.
>
> If you stop people like Reagan's Fed chairman, Greenspan, from claiming
> that ending the US gov't debt market is a bad thing., Cheney from
> saying deficits don't matter, and tax policies that are divorced
> from spending, we'll be fine.