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Orthoeconomics

Orthoeconomics
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  • Crude Oil And USO - Get Ready For Another Perfect Storm [View article]
    Hi VD. Strong arguments and conviction, as I would expect from you. I notice you are not responding to the comments as you usually do. I have noticed that many oil producers are now claiming to be producing at plus or minus $20 per barrel. Do you believe these numbers? and what affect is this going to have on long term oil prices? I do not believe that OPEC considered the possible impact of long term low cost production.
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: How Low Can Crude Go? [View article]
    How about all the investment firms that loaned money to the many E&P oil companies?
    Mar 16, 2015. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: How Low Can Crude Go? [View article]
    You are correct- it is only 12MBoe/d
    Mar 16, 2015. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: How Low Can Crude Go? [View article]
    Saudi Arabia appears to control the global price for oil. Their manipulation has resulted in oil price dropping from over $100 to less than $45/barrel. With Saudi production now at 16MBoe/d their daily revenue drop is over $880MM/day or $321.2Billion for the year. Sure they have knocked out the high cost producing sands fields, but thanks to good old American ingenuity many companies are now reporting drilling cost at near $20/barrel. Many companies and national budgets have become dependent on expensive oil. The unintended consequence of the OPEC drop in oil prices may result in global economic meltdown. I am unfortunately long energy- what to do now?
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Middle East OPEC Oil Rig Count Jumps 14% [View article]
    Saudi Arabia appears to control the global price for oil. Their manipulation has resulted in oil price dropping from over $100 to less than $45/barrel. With Saudi production now at 16MBoe/d their daily revenue drop is over $880MM/day or $321.2Billion for the year. Sure they have knocked out the high cost producing sands fields, but thanks to good old American ingenuity many companies are now reporting drilling cost at near $20/barrel. Many companies and national budgets have become dependent on expensive oil. The unintended consequence of the OPEC drop in oil prices may result in global economic meltdown.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum posts Q4 miss but increases liquidity [View news story]
    I believe (not just hoping) that this is good news for the preferred's.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum Longs Should Consider Swapping Into The GDPAN Preferred Convertible [View article]
    This is from email to IR today:

    BOD has set their meeting for Monday 3/2/15, we will announce their decision via press release.

    We are not in violation.

    Investor Relations
    Goodrich Petroleum Corporation
    801 Louisiana Street, Suite 700
    Houston, Texas 77002

    Main: 713-780-9494
    Email: investorrelations@good...
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum Longs Should Consider Swapping Into The GDPAN Preferred Convertible [View article]
    How did the company tell "investors that the Board will be making a decision next week"?
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum Longs Should Consider Swapping Into The GDPAN Preferred Convertible [View article]
    In 2014 the dividend was announced on February 20th. I believe that the dividend will indeed be deferred. With revenue from hedges of $38.882MM I am surprised and disappointed that they will defer the dividend. My surmise there may be a buyout suitor looking into GDP.
    Feb 26, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miller Energy: Alaska Debates Vital Tax Credit Handouts [View article]
    Irresponsible reporting of old news on a day oil is down.
    Feb 10, 2015. 03:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Energy Sector Mispriced Preferred Stock Pairs: MILL And MHR Issues [View article]
    He (Miller Energy CEO) used the word "sacrosanct" when he referred to paying dividend on the preferred!
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Energy Sector Mispriced Preferred Stock Pairs: MILL And MHR Issues [View article]
    GDP's 44.43M shares are 21% insider owned. 2014Q3 revenue was $54.87M. The quarterly dividend on the preferred stock was $2.259M- which is 4.12% of revenue. The interest on their $626.262M debt was $12.645M- which was 23% of revenue. The 2015 hedges are gas 20,000/day at $5.055 ($9.099M for the quarter) and oil 3,500 boepd at $94.55 ($29.783 for the quarter). That is $38.882M for the quarter if they only sold what is hedged. In 2014Q3 they were already at 6,000 Boepd. debt to EBITDA is 4.22.
    I am long the preferred.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Untangling Seadrill's Complicated Debt Structure [View article]
    This all seems very complicated. I usually do not like to invest in something I cannot even begin to understand. Maybe you could put together an illustrative chart to show all these relationships. Also, using the figure of total debt that you show here, what is the Debt/EBITDA ratio for SDRL?
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beaten Down BDCs: American Capital [View article]
    Nice summary. I would add that between 1999 and 2009 ACAS paid $30 a share in dividends.
    Jan 14, 2015. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo pulls the plug on mortgage REITs [View news story]
    This is unsupported by current economic trends that really should be creating value in this space. The 10-year is headed to below 1%, many mortgage REIT's are below BV, and the dividends are sustainable.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
68 Comments
158 Likes