Aristophanes

It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets

Solid, comprehensive list. I like the demographic additions. They are more tremendously important because they feed into every other issue, like water from snow.

Overall, the biggest negative pessimisms are:

1) Is there still hidden or systemic risk, especially within the financial services sector? Is all the data there? Is it correct? Is there another Bernie Madoff? Will the Russian oligarchs default on some hidden plays? Will hedge fund redemptions sink some major players?

2) Will there be international turmoil to add tot he general misery? Could Iran or North Korea or Israel make things much, much worse (Anyone notice how, when oil prices go down, Mideast news fades a lot? I guess oil money sponsors many things).

3) Is there a dynamic sector on the horizon to pick up the unemployment pieces? Because we know that business will not be "as usual", so housing construction, financial services, municipal services, etc. will all be in the doldrums. Moore's Law is a diminishing return. Pretty much leaves health care and old age homes.