William Montague

Amherst's CDS Coup

Question is, how many other brokerages have sold credit protection on other MBS to the banks and can it be repeated?

What Exactly Has Microsoft Delivered on Its Enormous R&D Investment?

I think the R&D hasn't done to bad, the XBox is proving its potential and will continue to grow, the link up with Murdochs Sky and Fox for content as well as netflix streaming films is a real boon. So with the Xbox you can now - play games, watch DVD's, watch streaming films, watch TV, listen to music. The 'beef' will come.

Bing is a good start and anyone that can provide competition to google is most welcome in the market place. There is plenty of 'beef' to be taken from google!

Windows 7, looks like the real deal finally. I am one of the 1M testers out there and its easy to use and stable for a beta. Most businesses didn't roll out Vista and stuck with XP (now an 8 year old OS). They will roll out Windows 7 - So much 'beef'!!!!

Other parts of the business have been developed in an adequate way, MSN, Hotmail, Office etc.

Failures Zune - bound to fail, Windows mobile - they were the first with a mobile operating system! How could they have lost to RIM, Apple, Android - spectacular failure!

The Russians Want Fewer Dollars - So They Say

Its a nice diversified play, they are putting a small percentage into IMF bonds which in turn are helping out emerging market countries and sovereigns gone bad. These will help stabilize the world markets in the long run.

WSJ Link

online.wsj.com/article...

IDX: Resource-Rich Indonesia Offers Both Risk and Promise

I agree that Indonesia could be the next big thing, and have been investing their since 2004, mainly coal/ mineral plays as it has the infrastructure, expertize and ability sitting on its doorstep - Australia.

However I have been greeted with over expenditure, back handers, and corruption in every investment. Whether it be the government withdrawing mining rights that were granted for 25 years just after the JORC compliant resource was announced, or companies burning through all of their cash and putting it under administration on their activities and cash flow report with no other explanation.

Indonesia has a huge populous that are ready to work, they have numerous resources their waiting to be shipped to China but the corruption is beyond comparison.

PNG is pretty much the same.

Will Rising Oil Prices Prevent a Recovery?

This is not a demand led rally in oil, there are tankers across the world, sitting, waiting for demand to come back, production hasn't been reduced.

This is another bank led boost in oil prices, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, JPM have even bought tankers themselves and filled them with oil waiting for a time to sell (as well as their futures holdings).

Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc

www.oilandgaseurasia.c...

JPMorgan

www.reuters.com/articl...

They need prices to go up so:

a. they can make a tidy profit.
b. they can start claiming inflation is on its way.

Market Outlook: It's Awfully Quiet Out There...Much Too Quiet

The market is so quiet that the DOW and S&P can move up 100-200 points with very little volume. There are so many people waiting on the sidelines for the next dip in what many expected to be the 'W' recession. The only problem is that government intervention has saved the 'W' for the time being as it provides capital in its plentiful 'acronym' programs.

As time goes by investors are getting bored and putting money back into the stock markets, there is only so long you can wait on the sidelines. Is all this creating a new artificial saccharin high?

None of the core problems have been solved, high unemployment, MBS, bankruptcys, defaulting home owners, credit card debt, CRE debt.

But JPM, MS and GS are allright and paying back there part of the $68B, as for the other trillions sitting out there in 'la la land', who knows?

iPhone: Smartphone War Just Got Hotter

I know that your comment makes absolute sense, however Apple have continually (since the iMac) charged double sometimes triple for comparable goods and consumer uptake has been double digit percentage UP every year including this year - the Great recession.

As for mass market, smart phones haven't gone mass market yet, it will take some time. Just like the home computer took time, just like mobile phone usage took time etc. etc.


On Jun 09 02:34 PM JPSmith wrote:

> Lower prices for iphones etc. won't help them go "mass market" until
> the carriers drop pricing for qualifying service plans. For example,
> right now the cheapest AT&T plan for iphones is $70 a month.
> Sprint requires a similarly priced plan for its new Pre. That's
> too high a monthly nut for mass adoption especially in a recessionary
> environment.

iPhone: Smartphone War Just Got Hotter

There is also a third war which is the gaming war, so many new games are coming to the iPhone, some by major players, some by boutique developers and some from bedroom/ garage developers. Neither Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Android, Symbian, Rim, Msft have as many developers working on handheld games than the amount working on iPhone/ iTouch.

As for the i7500, it hasn't even been released in most countries, and the countries that it has been its only been out for three weeks. As with any new 'expensive/ smart' phone I buy I wait for at least 6 months to check failure rates and customer feedback. I would never just go by tech spec. Further to that Android has a long way to go!

Handicapping Potential iShares Buyers

Nice little earner for CVC if it does go to a competitor. I am sure they want to keep hold of it if they can though.

The ETF space in Europe has barely any competition and if you look at the uptake of leverage CFD trading in Europe over the last 5 years - CMC, Saxo, IG Markets; whoever buys will be onto a winner. Consumers want access to more than just standard incountry share trading or 10% yielding funds, they want access to emerging market ETF's, or a cross section of energy stocks and so on and on.

So as long as it is marketed and run well whoever buys will be onto a winner.

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

And don't forget that 80% of businesses haven't upgraded from XP yet (Vista rollouts accounted for less than 20%) - so some firms haven't upgraded since XP's release - 2001/2.

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Microsoft has lost a lot of buyers to Linux and Mac OS X. Windows Vista was a disaster which no-one liked, wanted and MS continued with the same pricing format.

Windows 7 on the other hand has gone public beta, its very good, easy to use, stable for a beta, they have over 1M fee testers out there (including myself), it keeps the Microsoft feel but has a slight air of Mac OS X to it. Pricing remains to be seen.

It looks a lot better and expect an SP jump near to release.

Unemployment Data: Nothing to Cheer About

Just univeristy debt and credit cards.


On Jun 05 12:15 PM Michael B. Krause wrote:

> The bright side to this is that this is one group that does not already
> have mortgages to pay (generally).

Unemployment Data: Nothing to Cheer About

We still have GM, Chrysler, their dealers, parts makers, service providers, mechanics. Thats over 750,000 jobs at risk in the restructuring to add to the 9.4% nationwide unemployment.

Which Stocks to Watch on China's Growing Oil Consumption

There are quite a few banks having a bet on oil prices getting to the $100-$200 range, not only with futures but with physical, real tankers. Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and JPMorgan have hired tankers out filling them each with 2 million barrels and are floating them out at sea, waiting for the right price to sell.

Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc

www.oilandgaseurasia.c...

JPMorgan

www.reuters.com/articl...

"Separately, a shipping source said another new VLCC had been fixed to store gas oil off Malta's coast by a trading house."

So there will be a lot of talk about inflation, Chinese demand, devaluing dollar, Oil valuations coming from most of the trading houses over the coming months, notably Goldman Sachs already has a price target of $85 for this year alone.

www.dailyfinance.com/2.../

Paulson & Co Hedge Fund Covers Barclays Short

Barclays just had an 18% slide over the last couple of days and its a no brainer to get out. The 'green shoot brigade' are out in force driving up the markets.

Barclays have managed to cling on with Middle Eastern investment since October 2008, the clause in their contract stipulates that no government injections of cash are allowed until June 30th otherwise Barclays have to hand over a substantial percentage of shares to the ME consortium.

Barclays still have massive MBS problems (not as big as Lloyds though) and it will be interesting to see what happens if there is a next dip in the market.