mark joseph

2009: Already a Record Year for MLPs

I am a huge MLP fan as one would know from my past posts. That been said the record growth in MLP's for 2009 has more to do with the fact that 08 was the sectors record loss year, with a near 50% loss. In other words MLP's substantially beat the overall market in losses in 08 thus beat the overall market in gains in 2009.

The MLP market was hit with a double whammy as, combined with an overall market collapse, Lehman was the largest single holder of the equities and was forced to liquidate as they approached their ultimate demise.

It is somewhat hard to track the over all MLP market because the old etf BSR was dissolved and ultimately replaced by AMJ last spring. That being said we can measure, anecdotally, by looking at the largest MLP, Kinder Morgan (KMP). KMP has still not reached it's previous highs and dividends in general still higher than their historical averages.

Bottom line is there is plenty of time to still catch the MLP train.

Is a Crash Impending?

FB5000 tell you you what, I will meet you in the middle. I will step away from my keyboard, re-engage my brain .. per your request.

All I ask of you is: 1) to be respectful in discoarse (or go on a yahoo message board where rage trumps intellectual discussion), 2) Challenge the fundamentals of my response instead of insults (fundamentals are far worse today than they were in 1930.. debt, trade deficits, GDP dominated by consumption not production) 3) (last but not least) switch to decaf.


On Sep 02 09:59 PM FB5000 wrote:

> Truly. You believe this is a repeat of the Great Depression.
> +25% unemployment? +50%!!! reduction in Industrial production, 60%
> reduction in trade and incomes and crop prices, 25%!!! reduction
> in GDP.
>
> You really think this today is like that then?
>
> How old are you? Do you remember 1982-3? 1990-1? Do you recall 1973-4?
>
>
> You have no idea. Sincerely. Engage brain. Step away from the keyboard.
> Stop typing and think.
>
>
>
>

Why Gold, If Deflation Is the Threat?

Diversify... 20% Gold, 20% food stores, 60% shotguns and rottweillers.

Why Gold, If Deflation Is the Threat?

It is worth noting that right after the fall in Oct / November 08 and the March crash (09) the miner's silmultaneous market crash (GDX ETF) well exceeded the over all dow and S&P crashes. The rise of this sector (miners) well, well exceeded the rise in the general market and far more made up for the earlier drop.

To illustrate the link below charts the comparison.

data.cnbc.com/quotes/G...

Here is the point, if you are concerned about timing gold before a market crash, to time buying a metal etf, don't worry about it. All one needs to do is wait till the market crashes, relax, and when it flat lines for 2-4 weeks, buy the miners or the miner etf. If history is worth anything, your gains will well exceed a pure play like GLD, SLV and your gains will likely be several multiples higher than the commodity holding ETF's.

Keep in mind that miners are also companies and will fall with the other companies listed on the exchange. If you wait no guessing is required, just stay in cash, and make a calm and rational move after the crash.

For what it is worth,

Mark Joseph

Is a Crash Impending?

Just to be simple and unemotional about this let’s compare the Great Depression stock market drop to what is going on now.

INITIAL MARKET DROPS
From September 1929 to October 1929, the market dropped 48%.
From October 2007 to March 2009, the market dropped 56%.
So the drop percentage was pretty close, but the recent drop took longer.

DEAD CAT BOUNCE
From October 1929 to April 1930, the market jumped 48%.
From March 2009 to July 2009, the market jumped 48%.

FINAL DROP
From April 1930 to July 1932, the market dropped 86%.
From July 2009 to 2012, the market will drop ??????

You have to try real hard to ignore these numbers.

Due for a Correction? Market Is Already Priced for Grim Future

No doubt you (author) were part of the throngs that were "blindsided by the dreadful sell off". "those who forget history bound to repeat it"

I am more interested in hearing from those who were not "blind sided" and predicted this in detail years before it happened.

Like a few others Warren Brussee predicted in his book "the next great depression" (in 2003) that this would be happening. Mr. Brussee predicted virtually to the month. He is an unemotional mathematician. He draws a simple comparison that my 9 year old could follow.

Let’s compare the Great Depression stock market drop to what is going on now.

INITIAL MARKET DROPS
From September 1929 to October 1929, the market dropped 48%.
From October 2007 to March 2009, the market dropped 56%.
So the drop percentage was pretty close, but the recent drop took longer.

DEAD CAT BOUNCE
From October 1929 to April 1930, the market jumped 48%.
From March 2009 to July 2009, the market jumped 48%.

FINAL DROP
From April 1930 to July 1932, the market dropped 86%.
From July 2009 to 2012, the market will drop ??????

So the current dead-cat bounce is identical to what was experienced early in The Great Depression.

How can anyone just pollyanically gloss over this stuff just because they need to find a happy place?

Gold ETFs Cut Down On Physical Metal Trade

Mr. Lydon cannot be that ETF naive to ask "why own coins or gold bars when you can own gold ETFs?". I am not locked in with the conspiracy theorist who riddle SA with questions about the true holdings of IAU, GLD, SLV. But I do listen to them. I am still waiting for a serious rebuttal to the lack of audit accountability that is demanded from the likes of ETFs like GLD. Instead of a legitimate rebuttal all I ever seem to pick up is radio silence, outside of simpleton assertion like Mr. Lydon's.

In disclosure, most of my precious metal holdings are still in ETFs but I am migrating over time to physical metal, the more I research.

Why do the precious metal ETF cynics seem to run out of Blog space on Seeking Alpha when presenting their case and evidence while those like Mr. Lydon would need to double space just to hit the half page mark when making their case? How can one just ask a question like the one referenced above without at least making their case for the alternative to physical metal? Please!

SLV: Is It Solvent?

Every seems to agree that owning Silver is the way to go, yet most on this board say get out of SLV. What good is all this if no one talks about alternatives. The author of this piece wants to tell everyone there is a fire in the theater, then fall short of telling us where the exits are. What good is that.

Please feel free to talk about what the "better ways of buying silver' are. Without that second a half of the puzzle, this tends to read more like an enticement for one of these get rich quick newsletters that we get that leave us short of answers unless we pony up for the info.

A Stellar Year for MLPs So Far

One last note regarding Mr. Morris pointing out that MLP's were up 35% this year. Technically that is true, but only after being down over 45% in 2008 (Alerian index). They were one of the most stable sectors from a fundamental business and investment perspective but , ironically, had a worse dive than the overall market. They fell so low that at one point the average yield was around 16% with many solid MLP's returning yields %'s in the mid 20's. That makes this years growth (2009) far more justifiable and less concerning. It would be stranger and for more unexplainable if they did not rally in 2009 considering the irrational MLP crash in 2008.

I think it is far simpler to look at the sector yield to see if they MLP's are over priced. Right now they sit right in their normal range (around 8%) which is high by any other sector measure.

A Stellar Year for MLPs So Far

I agree with Ironist15. I cannot see how there is a better safe harbor than pipeline MLP's right now with it's , relative, secure and high returns and capital appreciation, preferential tax status (though I think that is often optimistically misunderstood).

All looks good in MLP land (i own lots... majority of my income portfolio) This all been said, in this market one must never be too cocky or confident of anything. There are real boogey men out there that no one can completely predict what wood pile they are in. remember the notion "safest place to keep your money is a money market"? Then we learned what "breaking the buck" meant.

Agricultural Commodities: The Next Bull Market

my question is the same as the above. If it is a note and the borrower pays it's bills all we really have is a good , fixed income bond fund? This would not seem to me to be a way to benefit from the increased price of the commodity.

I well may be missing something here, please enlighten.

Will a 'Silver Bullet' Finally Kill the Metal Manipulators?

I wonder what an international auditor would do if he or she arrived at the vaults of SLV, GLD, IAU and determined that there was a very real shortfall in the holdings. Would they really run out and produce an audit stating such? Considering the massive ripple that would send through all the financials markets, and the economic implosion that would result the auditor would likely not report it to the world but rather opt to use it for rolling paper if they know "what is good for them (and the world)".

Would the visible and invisible powers of the world roll over and let such poison pill be dropped in the punch bowl? I doubt it. In this case, what we do not know won't hurt us. At the most such an auditor would quietly ask that the reserve shortfalls be replenished over the next few years, then conveniently establish a permanent residency in their "happy place" and forget to complete the follow up audit. It is a sad fact but none the less a real one.

Ask yourself (as the worlds largest and most powerful countries will) if you are a holder of gold or silver, do you really want to know how much these etf's hold?

Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally

As to "the point of that was?" I think the point we can draw from LKof Scottland is when the doctor tells you take your lithium, you should take it.

That all I could draw from the rant.

MLPs: Success Story in an Otherwise Dismal Quarter

I am confused as to the author's reference to the alerian index. He referenced no symbol. BSR is the only index I aware of and it is at 26 and change today. It had a 1 year high of 35. This cannot be the same index he is referring to as it was stated in the article that the "MLP Alerian index" traded at 176 by the end of this quarter.

Is there another index to follow out there? I would love to know.

Thanks

Must-Know Criteria for Picking Inflation Proof, High Dividend Stocks

Careful beating up on the MLP's. They have always been levered heavy, as they have lots of expansion demand in the marketplace. If this leverage were as dangerous as some suggest it would have shown in the test of time. To the contrary, since 1991, MLP's have returned an average of 16% with dividends reinvested. As a group they have never had a down year (since the 80's). Show me where else that can be said. That is a long stretch of time with some amazing ups and downs in both the general marketplace as well as the energy marketplace.

MLP's have steadily increased their dividends during this crisis. Pipeline MLP's are the most consistent of the bunch with the price of oil having no effect on their model for better or worse. Even more institutional fund ownership has historically been below 10% but growing 8-10% a year, hence the contrarian capital appreciation while the rest of the market crashed. If funds continue to rush in this manner you will be rewarded with a double digit , growing dividends, and growth in your capital.