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Dividends#1

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  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I like Rob1492's response. I second his idea.

    However, whatever you decide on is 100% appreciated. Please continue to keep us informed about AGNC. You are the best.
    Apr 17 03:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model For Assessing The Sustainability Of American Capital Agency Corp.'s Dividend [View article]
    Thanks Ron,

    I am wondering why you do not own AGNC? Since you feel the dividend is sustainable, where else can you achieve a better fixed income vehicle?

    As you know the stock price is near its $20 IPO price and far away from its all time high price. Also, AGNC is trading above its 200 day moving average price. And it is trading at a nice discount to BV. Just some indications AGNC is closer to its bottom then a higher price. I am trying not to project prices, however an investment in AGNC seems like a good one to me.
    Apr 16 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Scott,


    Fantastic.

    I follow enough to be dangerous, but not enough to even come close to analyzing AGNC's IS, BV or ERTI on my own. Again without your consistent analysis and articles I would be lost.

    I am looking forward to your Part 3 and the anticipated strong OCI/(OCL) numbers that will make the poor net income and EPS numbers less significant overall.

    Apr 16 09:17 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 1 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I am now 100% clear concerning your response to VTFI. Those reversals should help out with ERTI.

    Thanks for clearing that up.
    Apr 14 09:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Portfolio Approaching $20K Annual Income [View article]
    Hi Surfgeezer,


    Thanks for your thoughts and philosophy. And I do mean that. You have made me aware of the potential danger for me. I do need to be careful with my projecting price change, speculating about the prices in my head of several stocks and the major indexes.

    I have conveniently forgot how I used to trade and it cost me serenity and sleep. I did not lose money during my last trading freenzy, however I would have to admit that my lifetime trading has a net negative outcome on my TOTAL RETURN. The only reason I am in good shape is because of the non trading, dividend investing years in the stock market.


    And, the price projections leave me open to potential trading down the road. So, I am going to heed your advise and try to minimize my projections, however old habits are hard to break.


    
    Apr 13 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 1 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I am a little confused. I see in Table 1 above what appears to be an estimate for a ($400M) loss for derivative instruments in Q12014.

    Yet you commented above to VTFI the following:

    Regarding your second question (regarding the derivatives), this is an analysis I have yet to perform (let alone write about).

    Is Table 1 an estimate for derivatives for Q1 without your analysis that you will be updating in Part 2 or am I missing something obvious? Sorry for being slow here.
    Apr 12 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q1 2014 Income Statement Projection - Part 1 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I hope you are having a productive tax season in your office. I know how busy you must be. Hopefully, you will get some rest/relaxation after next week.

    As far as the income statement, this Part 1 does seem poor, especially since I was expecting a good Q1 2014. I am assuming Part 3 will show a nice gain in the valuation of the MBS as the mortgage interest rates/ U.S. Treasury yields were favorable for AGNC's business in Q1.


    Current BV should be doing well.


    Scott, my AGNC position is FINALLY in the GREEN ( TOTAL RETURN + approximately 2%) after being down over 20% in 2013.


    My pateince is paying off, not to mention the fact that I added to my AGNC position while many others here at SA were running for the exits screaming fire.


    I did SELL 8% of my AGNC position on Thursday at $22.39/share for a GAIN. I was very OVERWEIGHT AGNC and needed to take a little off the table at a profit.


    My portfolio is + approximately 13% YTD. I feel like I have a very low risk portfolio for 2014 based on the fact that AGNC would have to decrease to $18/share in order to make my portfolio at BREAK EVEN in 2014. For me to have a negative TOTAL RETURN in 2014 AGNC would have to go below $18 and MO, KMR and PSEC would all have to trade below their current value. MO and KMR have been FLAT in 2014 and are very stable as you know, my point is that MO and KMR are NOT risky investments. I have a small allocation in PSEC and MTGE, so they will not affect my TOTAL RETURN materially.


    Bottom line: I believe I have positioned my portfolio in such a way that it is now a low risk portfolio (BASED on my 13% unrealized GAIN YTD), even though most would consider it a high risk portfolio based on my large AGNC position.


    I realize that I probably will get lectured NOT to include an UNREALIED 13% YTD gain in my projections/calculations to rationalize a low risk portfolio. However, I feel very comfortable with my large AGNC position. I was OK with it when it was - 20% and now that it is + 2%, I am more comfortable and confident.


    Thanks for all your articles and help. I would be lost without it.
    Apr 12 08:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Portfolio Approaching $20K Annual Income [View article]
    surfgeezer,

    Why should I be very careful about trying to project price change? I am projecting a range of $19-$27 a share for AGNC. What is the harm in that? I am NOT dependent on this range, if AGNC drops below $19 or goes above $27 in 2014, I would be surprised, however I could withstand a much larger drop in price and would welcome a much larger gain.

    And a drop down to $19 or lower could potentially be a buying opportunity depending on the environment.

    I just like to project and see how accurate I am. Again, what is the harm in projecting ranges of AGNC's price?

    Of course, a DIVIDEND raise is more beneficial and I see a small one coming in 2014 and that should help the price increase a little.

    I also realize that AGNC's IPO price was $20/share in 5/2008 and is currently $22.33/share. So the price change has only contributed a SMALL fraction of AGNC's total return, since AGNC has paid out $28.26 in DIVIDENDS since its IPO ( 24 quarters).

    And, I expect/project that the majority of AGNC's total return over the next 24 quarters ( 6 years) will also come from their DIVIDEND. So, my projected price range is only a short term projection, again NOT that important but fun for me to do.

    Your thoughts please?
    Apr 11 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Portfolio Approaching $20K Annual Income [View article]
    Hi Cash King,

    I did some of my own calculations/projections for the rest of 2014.

    My entire portfolio is +12.3% YTD as I type.

    In my WORST case scenario, my portfolio will finish 2014 with a ZERO gain/loss give or take 2% + or - . Therefore my portfolio value would be approximately the same on 12/31/2014 as it was on 12/31/2013.

    However, I would have MORE shares of AGNC, MO, KMR, MTGE and PSEC, because I would have reinvested all the MO, KMR, MTGE and PSEC shares. I would have reinvested ALL of the AGNC shares in my retirement accounts and collected some from my non retirement account.

    In my BEST case scenario, my portfolio will increase approximately 30%, give or take 3%.

    And in my middle of the road scenario my portfolio will increase approximately 20%, give or take 2%.

    Not a bad position to be in. Break even at worst or have an approximate GAIN of 20-30%, give or take 2-3%.

    Of course my portfolio could finish between the middle of the road 20% and the worst case scenario of breaking even leaving me with a gain of approximately 10%.

    I am very confident in these projected #'s as my 2014 performance, and I am on record now.

    My bottom line is, I project the probability of my portfolio losing money in 2014 is extremely low, and the probability of my portfolio gaining 10-30% is extremely high, with the chance of gaining over 15% very likely.

    I will let you know the actual results as they unfold.

    IF AGNC closes 2014 at approximately $19/share and my other stocks drop 8%, that would be my worst case scenario leaving me about EVEN.

    I hope you get my point here. I am in an excellent position because of being +12.3% YTD to have a very good year. I also see AGNC having a continued strong year.
    Apr 9 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Portfolio Approaching $20K Annual Income [View article]
    horowitzcpa,

    How does AGNC going from $30/share to $22/share = a 40% loss of one's fortune? First of all, even if you leave out the $8.15 in dividends (which I personally would never do, since TOTAL RETURN gives me an accurate picture of how my investment is performing), the UNREALIZED LOSS = 26.7%, NOT 40%. And, of course an UNREALIZED LOSS is exactly that, as I am sure you know.

    With dividends reinvested, the results are promising going forward. My share count has increased substantially at lower prices, so when AGNC breaks out to the upside, my fortune will increase. You need to study dividend reinvesting and compounding over time.

    Again, I am glad you are not my CPA.
    Apr 9 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Portfolio Approaching $20K Annual Income [View article]
    horowitzcpa,

    You mentioned AGNC and implied that if one bought 2 years ago, they would have lost 40% of their principal.

    AGNC has paid $8.15 in dividends ($0.65 due on 4/28/14) over the last 2 years. If one had bought AGNC on 4/9/2012 2 years ago at $30/share, based on today's closing price of $22.07 + $8.15 in dividends = $30.22.

    I am glad you are not my CPA.
    Apr 8 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Altria Group: An Attractive Investment [View article]
    QEisGovtFraud,

    The only dog here is your advise. MO has been the #1 dividend stock over the last century. Every one who has called for MO's impending doom has been a loser. The winners are invested in MO.

    Long: MO
    Apr 7 10:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs a port in the storm today [View news story]
    Hi William,

    Actually, Scott Kennedy wrote a whole article warning about WMC. I do not recall you warning anyone in advance. It is easy to make a call after the fact. You are being quite rude to the other members.

    I do recall you and I disagreeing about the ten year's direction. So far you have been wrong on that call as the 10 year continues to stay surpressed.
    Apr 4 07:54 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Recent Book Value And Dividend Compared To Its Agency mREIT Peers - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    I am back from my vacation in Tampa Florida. We had a good time. Sunshine was a daily treat. It is also good to be back home.

    I got to see Derek Jeter and the Yankees up close, right behind home plate. Hopefully, they will start winning and Jeter will stay healthy and lead them to a 28th World Series victory. Baseball is a long season and the odds of winning a World Series has a low probability. But is will be fun rooting for it.
    Apr 3 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Recent Book Value And Dividend Compared To Its Agency mREIT Peers - Part 2 [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    Thanks again for a very informative article. The fact that you feel dividends for AGNC (and across the sector) have recently bottomed is music to my ears. You called the last dividend for AGNC of $0.65, and now I look forward to a stable and possibly growing dividend income from AGNC.

    Your track record is stellar.

    I look forward to your BV article.
    Apr 3 01:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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