Taymere

Natural Gas Extraction May Be More Expensive Than It Seems

Right on! We seriously polluted the environment trying to maintain our source of Arab oil shooting tons of radioactive DU munitions into Kuwait and Iraq in the 1st Gulf War. The cancer rate for Iraqis skyrocketed in 90's and it is still sky high. But at least we learned our lesson about the environmental costs of war...Oh wait!

How would these NIMBY's feel if Arabs cam to the USA and killed our friends and family to ensure their supply of black gold? Oh sorry, I meant came to "liberate us." Natural gas is domestic and nobody has to die to extract it. We know how to purify drinking water if hydraulic fracturing makes it come to that, but it's much harder to wash clean the trauma of war from the minds of our young soldiers. A little bit of war is way too much NIMBYS.

On Nov 03 03:05 PM Mmarrkk wrote:

> Plenty of water for use in most of the areas where the shale gas
> exists. Fracing uses a fraction of golf course maintenance does.
>
>
> The water goes down into the ground and the volumes pumped out are
> put in retention ponds, treated, and re-used for frac'ing future
> wells.
>
> BTW, many of the shale plays use plain old sand, not ceramic proppant.
>
>
> The chemicals used in fracing make up less than 1 % and most are
> found in your home right now. Look at the contents in a bottle of
> Formula 409 or Windex!
>
> Look at the "back-end" costs for building a freaking Toyota Prius.
> Those batteries contain some pretty nasty crud too, you know. As
> does the plastices/fiberglass that makes up the body. And did you
> know that NATURAL GAS is used as a raw material for making many of
> those parts? Get a grip you NIMBY!

Agency-Backed Mortgage REITs at a Crossroads

Actually I think MFA's strategy (3), like IVR's, is more conservative than the others. Some day years from now, when the Fed has printed enough money to make it possible from a capital ratio perspective to do so, the banks will stop extending and pretending and start foreclosing. When they do, agency MBS prepayments and yields will spike leaving the agency only mREITS with an underfunded dividend. That would be the right time for MFA to load up on agency MBS and by staying relatively unlevered now they retain the ability to buy heavily later.


On Nov 08 10:41 AM beaux wrote:

> Given that NLY is a buyer of fixed rate MBS their risk stems net
> interest margin compression that results from the repricing of liabilities.
> NLY's proactive approach to managing/heding this risk is therefore
> sensible and stratgeic. Also, their running lower leverage while
> awaiting assets to become available at lower prices/higher yields
> addresses the asset risk.
>
> In a way I do not see Strategy 1 and 2 as being mutually exclusive
> -- Strategy 2 simply may just have less duration mismatch risk stemming
> from shorter duration assets that does Strategy 1. Thus less of
> a need for liability management.
>
> As for Strategy 3 which is based on stretching for yield -- that
> one seems most like picking in front of a bulldozer. I say, in the
> words of Monte Python, "run away".
>
> Disclosure: long NLY.

New Housing Initiative Insures Freddie and Fannie's Survival

I was wrong, STate taxes aren't at all involved in HFA funding, HFA's actually get ALL their money from the US Congress. This is a patronage system where the States wield power given them by the fed through HFAs. From page 2 of my link above "This will temporarily allow the HFAs to issue an amount of new housing bonds equal to what they would ordinarily be able to issue with the allocations provided them by Congress but are generally unable to issue given the current challenges in housing and related markets." So you see the taxpayer has ALWAYS been on the hook for the HFAs. Why must COngress allocate funds to HFAs? Because they are money losing enterprises. No money down loans at low interest rates are guaranteed money losers, that 's why the Federal government must allocate capital to them because the private sector certainly won't. Look, compassionately housing the poor through section 8 housing is fine, but it's just silly to try to put an indigent man's name on the deed via the mechanism of "home ownership" , they don't make magic markers strong enough to keep a poor man's name on the deed. Give a poor man control of the property and he will cash out refi it then lose it.


On Oct 20 03:44 AM Taymere wrote:

> from www.treas.gov/press/re...
>
>
> "The new HFA innitialtive will...br paid for by HFAs - not taxpayers;"
>
>
> HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! what a steaming pile of buffalo exccrement that statement
> is. Where do the HFAs get THEIR money? From deficit state government
> spending. The States are not very independent from the Fed, they
> get money from the Fed that was originally federal income tax that
> gets recycled back to the states to strengthen the Federal control
> of the nation. Look at how they forced States to adopt 55mph highways
> with the threat of with holding hiwhway funds. They forced Hawaii
> to raise the age of consent by threatening to withhold hospital funds.
> It can't be said that only State taxpayers will take the hit through
> their HFA's they are too dependent on the Fed.
>
> "While waiting for the measures that would revive the Germany economically,
> with a special eye on Schacht's plans, the Nazi hierarchy’s machinery
> took complete and sweeping control of the nation. Under the Weimar
> Republic, Germany had been a federation of sovereign German states.
> These individual states were now virtually disenfranchised, and a
> grid of Nazi party Gualeiters, or regional Nazi leaders, was superimposed
> on them. Statthalter, (state representatives) were also appointed
> for each state, and all the strings were held by Berlin."
> -from "Hitler's Banker; Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht" by John Weitz

New Housing Initiative Insures Freddie and Fannie's Survival

from www.treas.gov/press/re...

"The new HFA innitialtive will...br paid for by HFAs - not taxpayers;"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! what a steaming pile of buffalo exccrement that statement is. Where do the HFAs get THEIR money? From deficit state government spending. The States are not very independent from the Fed, they get money from the Fed that was originally federal income tax that gets recycled back to the states to strengthen the Federal control of the nation. Look at how they forced States to adopt 55mph highways with the threat of with holding hiwhway funds. They forced Hawaii to raise the age of consent by threatening to withhold hospital funds. It can't be said that only State taxpayers will take the hit through their HFA's they are too dependent on the Fed.

"While waiting for the measures that would revive the Germany economically, with a special eye on Schacht's plans, the Nazi hierarchy’s machinery took complete and sweeping control of the nation. Under the Weimar Republic, Germany had been a federation of sovereign German states. These individual states were now virtually disenfranchised, and a grid of Nazi party Gualeiters, or regional Nazi leaders, was superimposed on them. Statthalter, (state representatives) were also appointed for each state, and all the strings were held by Berlin."
-from "Hitler's Banker; Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht" by John Weitz

AmREITs on Fire: Prelude or Crescendo?

Just monitor the Ted Spread. As far as early warning goes as long as the Fed continues to purchase ABS in general, and GSE MBS in particular I think we are safe from a rate hike. The FOMC statement has particular language about rates that has remained unchanged. I think we are safe till at least summer 2010. Even after the Fed jacks up rates a little in late 2010 the NIM's will still be good from a historic perspective. In fact the first hint of a rate raise may be a great buying opportunity for MREITS if the market overreacts.


On Sep 24 09:16 PM User 58455 wrote:

> I hold ANH. Can anyone advise of a good blog, or web site that would
> give early warning of a flattening yield curve
> tom

Stay Away from AIG - Barron's

That's like comparing doggie doo to; horse manure, pig poo, buffalo chips, etc... and then saying "see it's the BEST!" There is nothing on your list that I would touch with a 10' pole, except the senior debt were it appropriately priced.


On Aug 29 07:48 PM dell_stk wrote:

> 4AIG is the stock of the century! What are you guys talking?
> You will never get a chance again to buy AIG at the current levels.
>
> Compare AIG with FNM, FRE, MBI, ABK and C.
> AIG is the best!
> 1. AIG is trading today at $2.50 pre-RS-split, i.e., $50 with $12.46
> EPS for year 2010 and with book value per share at $430.
> 2. FNM is trading today at $2.04 with $-6.90 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-59.86.
> 3. FRE is trading today at $2.40 with $-2.85 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-88.95.
> 4. MBI is trading today at $6.50 with $0.20 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $13.29.
> 5. ABK is trading today at $1.72 with $ -1.75 EPS for year 2010 and
> with book value per share at $-18.70.
> 6. C is trading at $5.23 with $0.09 EPS for year 2010 and with book
> value per share at $14.16.
>
> Now the author of this article should tell us why one should stay
> away from AIG?
> I won't be surprised if this article was published by a paid-basher/some-short.
>
>
> Let's see how long my comment stays in this column. I can't believe
> this author has 1819 followers.

Goldman Sachs Raises Year-End Price Target - Should We Care?

Don't fight the tape, profit from it. A bear market rally is nevertheless a rally. Find something that you think is so undervalued that you would be willing to hold it even if the market tested the March lows after you bought it and buy a bit of that. If we do test the March lows again buy lots MORE of it, and whatever else is seriously undervalued, at that time. Stay off margin unless we test the March lows then go all in.

PIMCO High Income Fund: Substantially Overvalued?

I personally am up over 200% gains in 2009 with my individual picks, even after GM defaulted. My bond/reit picks were AFF AVF AIG-A IND ISP ISG ISF GRT MAC, and a bunch of GM baby bonds. I bought low and sold high (except GM which I am currently stuck with till the IPO). I am a complete novice, I never owned a single security before 2009, and just started reading books like David Dreman's this year. If I can get > 200% total return gains in a few months what makes you think Bill Gross can't generate bundles of cash through trading? It's hard work to buy the right securities but shouldn't he easily do better than me? I can barely read a balance sheet and he's a pro, his trading gains should easily be sustainable for the next few years of recession.

Now I want to relax because the environment is no longer target rich, so I'll let Bill Gross handle making trading and interest profits for me. I am parking some of my gains in PHK until the bottom drops out of the market so bad again that even a novice like me can make great gains with my own picks.

New U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Displacing Canadian Gas

It would only collapse in the current month, it would stay in strong contango going forward. Then you would need to unload what you bought in the same month and hope it pops during the month unless you want to take delivery. I admit I am a novice commodities future trader, that's why I own midstream MLP's like LINE, I let pros in the industry hedge their own production. They benefit strongly from the extreme contango because strong contango lets them hedge at attractive prices at low hedging cost. They are experienced NG traders and have real output produced at a low cost to sell. They are much less likely to enter an unprofitable trade than I. I'll just collect my 13% divvy, good enough for me.


On Jul 09 07:30 AM basehitz wrote:

> <We could see US$2 gas (per mcf). It’s definitely possible. We haven’t
> seen the production declines down here yet.>
>
> At the risk of missing the trade, I'm waiting for what would be an
> impressive final shake-out. I assume there is an limit to how much
> we can store underground. (Can anyone confirm/quantify that?) Assuming
> that is correct, given trajectory of storage, it would seem possible
> we hit that before getting to the fall extraction period. Then NG
> price would collapse. I would buy that.

Why GM Is Ready for a Rebound

You can't buy new GM on the open market right now. GMGMQ is old GM and it will be valueless in a few years. If you wanted new GM you should have bought their retail bonds when they were selling for 4 cents/$. I did and somewhat wish I hadn't.


On Jul 10 06:03 PM tailspin wrote:

> GMGMQ had a huge bounce today following the announcement of Mr Henderson
> about the restructurization of GM. Seems they ruffle some feathers
> which helped investor confidence..
>
> What will happen with this stock? Any ideas, anyone?
>
> Time to buy into? Triple or total loss? Seems GM falls in the to-big-to
> fail category like the banks.
>

Natural Gas ETF: Nowhere to Go but Up, Yet It Keeps Going Down

Really? When you can buy LINE and get a double digit divvy guaranteed by hedging instead of UNG?


On Jul 10 05:27 AM Ryu Mei Co wrote:

> UNG may fall in the short term, but to me, this is a long term investment.
> Like Jim Rogers always said "I will hold, and I will buy more when
> price goes down". US has so much Natural Gas in its own back yard
> that one of these day they are going to use it to replace foreign
> oil. Imagine the potential of Natural Gas as an alternate source
> of clean energy in the US.
>
> Even if UNG were to go below $10, $5........and I will say, "Dude!
> Buy as much as you can afford! And hold it for your retirement" At
> below $10, it is a screaming buy!

MLPs Continue Their Winning Streak

I saw in you other post that you are an MLP specialist. I would like to know what companies you think would be hurt most by the proposed anti-fracking law in currently in Congress? Would my BBEP or EVEP be hurt? What online sources or print media should I subscribe to to educate myself about MLP's? Currently I am using a free trial of SNL financial but their analyst coverage is thin for MLP's, Oppenheimer is all they offer for individual investors.


On Jun 02 07:51 PM Smackdown wrote:

> Avi, you continue to surprise me with your posts. I don't think
> you have a deep understanding of how midstream MLPs operate. Why
> are so concerned with earnings? DCF is what matters. You should
> study up on earnings, DCF, EBITDA, and the other factors that effect
> an MLP. Then, maybe you would stop posting positive yet worrisome
> articles. Embrace the solid business models and stop with the sky
> might be falling thinking out loud. Give specific reasons and
> not "something has to give". This is not very scientific. MLPS
> are not REITS or junk bonds. They do not have the same risks.<br/>
>
> I stick to the midstream space. There has never been a single distribution
> cut in that area. Ever. Avoid the riskier G&amp;P and E&amp;P
> entities. Stay with the good names. Sleep at night. ETP, EPD,
> PAA, NS, TPP, DEP, TCLP, EEP, KMR, MMP, BPL, HEP, etc.....
>

MLPs Continue Their Winning Streak

Master Limited Partnership, which is a tax structure.

Samckdown, is BBEP misdtream? They eliminated divvy. I bought them anyway though. I think EVEP is the best value out there right now, I'm shopping for some at $21 limit order.


On Jun 05 01:36 PM Wolverine58 wrote:

> Excuse my ignorance but what is an MLP?

GM: To File or Not to File, That Is the Question

sell the bonds!!!! sell now!!! no price is too low. Especially your GRM please

Betting on the Big Banks

All banks aren't created equal. Many regionals, foreign banks, and mutual thrifts are thriving investments. I bought HCBK and ING and I consider them both great investments, as Warren Buffet said "Do not hope." There is no hope in my portfolio therefore I have a lot of hope for my portfolio. Subscribe to SNL financial, you'll find some great banks that have been unjustifiably beaten down to PE<5, P/B<1 for the sins of their bigger insolvent zombie brethren. The only caveat is that when share price is unjustifiably beaten down too far you have the phenomena that Soros termed "reflexivity" and you may just get scared that the FDIC will shut it down because some of the greatest bank bargians are "small enough to fail" in the governments eyes. Investing in banks is a funny deal because while a low share price may make me want to invest, that same parameter lowers TCE and makes the Fed want to shut it down. A great disservice was done to these smaller savings banks when FNM and FRE preferred dividends were suspended. The government beckoned them to invest by only allowing savings banks to invest in these "safe" GSE hybrids, then backanded the snot right out of their nose by suspending the divvy. They are not getting government handouts, and they are ineligible to participate in the PPIP orgy of taxpayer theft. The small guys did what banks are supposed to do, no exotic derivatives, and now they pay higher FDIC insurance premiums to cover the sins of their big zombie brothers, while watching from the sidelines as Geithner and Bernake fellatio those same zombies.


On Apr 23 11:11 PM a fat panda wrote:

> At this point you aren't investing at all when you put your money
> into bank stocks. You are betting on the willingness of the taxpayer
> to gift profits to these companies. Your insight into the politics
> of Washington may be better than mine, but it has to be a lot better
> before you can call this investing.
>
> Trade bank stocks as you like, but investing in banks seems to me
> to be unwise. We have excess lending capacity in this country.
> It is like buying a farm in the midst of a bumper crop in every crop.
> Lending is where they make money. As the economy sours we have loan
> losses on the rise. This is where they lose money. It is going
> to take time to unwind these forces.
>