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Angel Martin

Angel Martin
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  • Hilsenrath: Taper on table, but look for dovish guidance change [View news story]
    the 83K is in comparison to Sept household employent

    the fed is signalling (via Hilsenrath) that 7.0 unemployment is not good enough and they have moved the goalposts to 6.5 %

    so, for now, risk on !
    Dec 8 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Risk-Averse Recovery Ever [View article]
    Good article !

    the consumer loan delinquency rate tells an important story
    Dec 7 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys slide, but equities cruise right through big jobs number [View news story]
    TLT now up as well, if this data had been leaked to me i would have lost money... LOL !
    Dec 6 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job gains of 203K; unemployment dives to 7% [View news story]
    finally some employment gains in the household survey, and UE rate coming down due to job gains rather than exit from the LF

    hours up, wage gains limited, looks pretty good !
    Dec 6 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dangerous game of chicken playing out in Chinese airspace [View news story]
    the problem with even civilian aircraft complying with china's air zone is that it recognizes china's jurisdiction and right to do this

    as a result, Japan and S Korea have instructed their civilian aircraft to ignore china's air defence zone.

    so obama has now undermined america's allies in their position… nice going Zero, more "smart" diplomacy on display
    Dec 1 01:21 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers Expects A Long Winter [View article]
    Marc, i look forward to anything you want to write on this in the future.

    my point about investment opportunities is this: there are a lot of new industries and new technologies and services that will come down the pike in the next few years. If we could image what those were, we could make those investments now, and get the returns now, and get that growth now.

    i say the investment opportunities are there but we don't know where to look yet. that's a lot different than they don't exist.
    Nov 20 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers Expects A Long Winter [View article]
    Tack, if gdp growth accelerates to "normal" levels, i would expect that labour demand would grow with it.

    you are arguing why it won't; you may be correct but history is on my side.

    i heard these sorts of arguments in the early 1990's, and by 1999 the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent
    Nov 19 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers Expects A Long Winter [View article]
    Marc this is an interesting post on an important topic, however here is my 0.0003 bitcoins worth

    I think that before everyone buys into the concept of the "new normal" they should consider the following:

    - as documented in the Reinhardt-Rogoff book (This Time it's Different) there is typically a period of subpar economic growth following a housing bubble bust that has an average duration of 6 years... the USA is in year 6

    - after about 3 years, people become conditioned to accept unusual circumstances as normal, even if rationally they know it is not normal.

    - the default for the economy is growth, and stronger growth than we have seen for the USA in the past few years

    - i also reject this concept: "In aggregate, savings or accumulation outstrip profitable investment opportunities." In my view, a perceived lack of investment opportunities reflects a lack of imagination, not a surplus of capital. Look at the most recent new product and service successes - in almost all cases they could have been done many years earlier; the opportunity was there but the imagination to do it was lacking.
    Nov 19 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Moving Goalposts [View article]
    that's …not explained by real gdp growth...
    Nov 16 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moving Goalposts [View article]
    thank you for the graph, the 10 year averages tell the story, and the 1920's are actually pretty well explained

    however, the most recent 10 years has m2 growth well above CPI growth, and the difference is obviously not explained by real gap growth
    Nov 15 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moving Goalposts [View article]
    "both interest rates and inflation are heading higher and not exactly surprising on the downside"

    i think that the forecast that interest rates and inflation headed higher remains to be seen.

    as for surprising on the downside, i think it is fair to say that since 2009, interest rates and inflation have consistently surprised on the downside. If you told people in 2009 that we would be 4 years into a (feeble) but continuing economic recovery and 10 year treasuries were only at 2.7 percent - i think they would have been surprised.

    on the inflation side, despite ZIRP for 4+ years, 4 trillion in QE etc. inflation is below target, as the author has previouly written http://bit.ly/1bKxve2

    now i know he does not agree with fed reserve/academic economist thinking on wanting higher inflation. i don't either. but at the same time i think the author needs to look again at his models that are forecasting higher inflation, and try to backtest against the 1920's and see if they work for that period.
    Nov 15 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moving Goalposts [View article]
    "how can we have an asset bubble and deflation?"

    not sure about the how, but we had one in the 1920's and i believe that we are repeating that history...

    i agree with everything the author says about valuation, but if interest rates and inflation continue to surprise on the downside we are just going to have more and more multiple expansion

    i'm sure it will all end in a big wreck, as disinflationary asset bubbles always do, but in the meantime, use options to profit from it and enjoy the ride...
    Nov 15 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro: Austerity, Breakup Or Devaluation? [View article]
    Interesting article, most investors have lost track of the euro story, assuming that the problem is now "contained".

    It may be, but the periphery countries still have nominal gdp growth well below their (artificially suppressed) cost of financing.

    in addition, non performing loans in Italy, Spain etc. continue to rise (note: transfer to a to a "bad bank" does not make them go away for the sovereign)

    http://reut.rs/19qoSWZ
    http://bit.ly/19qpqfz

    in my view, as long as gdp growth is below financing cost (and non-performing loans are rising) the risk to the euro remains.

    Also, if you look at the past research on the breakup of currency unions, it's the breakdown in political will that triggers breakup. The political elite in europe is still strongly behind the euro but the general population is starting to drift away.
    http://bit.ly/19qpqfB
    Nov 3 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Shutdown Cause Consumers To Save Instead Of Spend This Holiday Season? [View article]
    both Redbook and ICSC Goldman produce weekly retail numbers.
    http://bloom.bg/itq0bI

    the impact of the debt ceiling appears to have been limited, and Redbook, especially, appears to be on an uptrend
    Oct 28 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On Amazon [View article]
    "I expect there to be a correction in the stock price of Amazon, unless it moves to increase its gross margins. "

    well, expanding into the grocery business is not a way for a retailer to raise margins...

    one of the things about a bull market, is that the stupidest stocks go up the most

    and those who short AMZN, TSLA, FB... etc. when the bull is likely less than half way done are going to get killed (disclosure, still long AMZN puts)

    one day these potemkin companies will crash and burn, but we may be 5-6 years and 100's of percent increases from that point.
    Oct 27 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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