jimnoles126

jimnoles126
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  • Should You Short Volatility Here?  [View article]
    VTH, thank you for your comments and I agree with you on a lot of your ideas. However, XIV went up 900% from 2011-2015, now obviously, those were with unprecedentedly low volatility years. Let's say that there is a HUGE crash in the market and XIV goes all the way down to 2 (from 16 now)! That's over -85% drop from todays already depressed prices, and then after that giant crash, the market starts to go back up and vix plummets as usual, and XIV goes up another 900% in 4-5 years, we would still be right back at the prices we are at today. Sure, you would have lots of losses on the books for a couple of years, but so would everyone else who is long the market. My point is, if I continue to buy in stages all the way down, how am I not going to make money 6 years from now? My theory is, as long as you buy in stages to reach whatever $ you're comfortable with, AND their is no black swan, then the risk reward is usually in your favor over a 5-6 year period.
    Feb 13, 2016. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Short Volatility Here?  [View article]
    @VTH You will definitely be correct if we drop lower than -25% from peak to bottom in the S&P. Although, I think my trades will still be profitable if we stop there. What % decline are you expecting before it bottoms?
    Feb 12, 2016. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Short Volatility Here?  [View article]
    I'm surprised that most of the comments say its a bad idea to short vol over the next few months. If you like XIV and want to be exposed to it, I feel like the best strategy is just to buy incrementally as it goes down. We all have a guess on where the market is going, but I'm sure we have also all been fooled before. I started a position a few weeks ago and have added on big down days, I'm at about 1/3 of my potential position size, but I for one hope it goes down further. What's the worst case scenario? It plummets and I get to average in at great prices? I'm sure no one wanted to short vol in late 2011 when xiv was getting crushed either. I guess the other strategy could be just to actually wait for a bear market in stocks (which will happen eventually) and then start a position in xiv.
    Feb 12, 2016. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]
    Looks like Mark.ca's prediction came true...
    Feb 12, 2016. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV: I Hate To Tell You So, But I Told You So  [View article]
    I understand all the negativity around XIV, however, if you are lucky enough to have extra money after a large market decline like 2001, 2009, etc XIV is probably one of the best risk rewards out there!
    Feb 10, 2016. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Or ZIV? New Perspectives Following 6 Months Of Elevated Market Volatility  [View article]
    Oh I agree, I plan on starting a position if we break the 52 week low. I hope it happens this week! =)
    Feb 7, 2016. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Or ZIV? New Perspectives Following 6 Months Of Elevated Market Volatility  [View article]
    I think you're right, ZIV is underrated! It almost went down -50% in 2011 so I'm that happens again so I can get in at a good price. Even if the market continues to go down, the futures curve doesn't usually stay negative for too many months.
    Feb 6, 2016. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Or ZIV? New Perspectives Following 6 Months Of Elevated Market Volatility  [View article]
    I hope you're right. I would love to buy more XIV at 10, even if my average price is 20!
    Feb 2, 2016. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Or ZIV? New Perspectives Following 6 Months Of Elevated Market Volatility  [View article]
    Do you mind elaborating on the "tax advantage" of svxy to xiv?
    Jan 30, 2016. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV Or ZIV? New Perspectives Following 6 Months Of Elevated Market Volatility  [View article]
    @bobcat2 So are you making that decent bet?
    Jan 30, 2016. 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying)  [View article]
    I love Macro as well as this etf/etn, however I feel like svxy gets continually murdered in a high vol environment, which I don't see going away for a few years. Who has any guesses on how many years it will take before SVXY/XIV hits all time highs again? =)
    Jan 27, 2016. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying)  [View article]
    You're probably right, it will go to 10 if we drop 50% in the overall market. But if you are lucky enough to get in at that price, I would say you have a fantastic risk reward in the years following!! =)
    Jan 11, 2016. 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying)  [View article]
    29741: So are you a billionaire yet? ;)
    Jan 5, 2016. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]
    I think you're right Ian. Looking at multi-year charts of XIV and ZIV, ZIV is obviously a clear winner for long term holding (unless you have lots of spare cash to average down when XIV plummets, which it eventually will).
    Jan 3, 2016. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Fork In The Road For XIV  [View article]
    Hey Nathan, I completely understand if you don't want to go into detail about your strategy, but I was just wondering. Since you only make around 2-5 trades a year in XIV, with the recent moves to the downside, when was the most recent trade? And also, how much lower would XIV have to go to initiate another trade? Thanks! =)
    Jan 2, 2016. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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